New England Patriots: Breaking Down 5 Toughest, 5 Easiest Games in 2015 Schedule
With the 2015 schedule released, the New England Patriots finally know when they'll see their 13 opponents next season.
The schedule release may not seem particularly important, given that we've known the "who" and "where" of the Pats' 2015 schedule for months, but after a Sloan Sports Conference paper revealed the inequities of NFL scheduling, the timing of certain games will be under greater scrutiny in 2015.
Apart from the early Week 4 bye, New England's schedule appears fairly well-balanced. The Pats don't play more than two road games in a row at any point, nor will they be required to stay out on the West Coast for an entire week like last year.
Let's take a look at the toughest challenges the Patriots will face next season, as well as those contests in which they should take care of business in what figures to be a tight race to the top of the AFC.
5th-Easiest Game: Home vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 1
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The Patriots don't have many gimmes on their 2015 slate, so facing a Pittsburgh team without Le'Veon Bell on opening night is a fortunate break.
Strangely, New England is actually the biggest Week 1 favorite based on early lines from Odds Shark.
Having Bell on the sideline hampers a large portion of Pittsburgh's offensive game plan. In his second season, the Michigan State product turned into arguably the league's best all-around back, compiling 2,215 yards from scrimmage (second to only DeMarco Murray) and finishing ninth among running backs in DVOA, Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metric of success rate.
Additionally, the Steelers' traditionally vaunted back seven is in significant need of reinforcements. The retirements of Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor aren't death blows, considering their age-related regressions, but unless embattled youngsters like Cortez Allen and Shamarko Thomas make unexpected leaps, Pittsburgh will need at least two-to-three new starters in the secondary.
Moreover, Jason Worilds' retirement and Jarvis Jones' injury woes have robbed Pittsburgh of viable edge-rushers. Pittsburgh finished 25th in sack rate last year, according to Team Rankings, and 21st in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate. Without Worilds, those numbers could dip even further.
Even in the Dick LeBeau era, Tom Brady has always had success against the Steelers defense, leading the Patriots to an average of 34.8 points per game over the six meetings since 2004. While Antonio Brown figures to have a huge night against New England's new-look secondary, it's even harder to envision the Steelers defense slowing down Brady and Company.
Prediction: Win, 41-34
5th-Toughest Game: Away vs. Miami Dolphins, Week 17
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The Patriots have had their share of issues in South Beach, with a mediocre 7-7 record at Miami since 2001. While New England caught a break by getting this game in January, it will also be its third road game in a four-week stretch, a tough closing kick to end the regular season.
Miami has made more noise than any team outside of Philly this offseason, landing the biggest free-agent fish in Ndamukong Suh while revamping their receiving corps with the acquisitions of Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron. The 2014 Fins already had an efficient offense under Chip Kelly apprentice Bill Lazor, finishing first in Offensive Success Rate, per Advanced Football Analytics.
But after six straight years of eight wins or less, these moves appear aimed at determining whether the divisive quarterback-coach combo of Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin is a viable long-term proposition. At the same time, though, these moves reek of the 2011 Eagles "Dream Team," as flashy names won't hide significant depth issues at linebacker, cornerback and guard.
Still, the Dolphins have always given the Patriots a tough game at Sun Life Stadium. There's a reasonable chance the Patriots could have nothing left to play for in Week 17, whereas Miami figures to sit on the cusp of the postseason picture.
This will likely be a tricky game regardless of whether or not the Patriots have anything to play for, though, so look for Miami to up its home winning streak versus New England to three years in a row.
Prediction: Loss, 24-20
4th-Easiest Game: Away vs. New York Jets, Week 16
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It might seem strange to pick the road game versus Gang Green over the Week 7 contest at Gillette Stadium. However, the Patriots will essentially be preparing for two teams that week, with a Thursday night matchup against Miami looming just four days later. This game at the end of the year, which is when the Pats typically peak, might actually be the more manageable situation.
The Jets secondary might be the most improved unit in the entire league. Injuries and incompetent offseason roster construction left New York starting the likes of Darrin Walls and Marcus Williams at the position last year. In 2015, the free-agent troika of Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine will give the Jets one of the league's deepest corner corps, a luxury Rex Ryan surely would have enjoyed.
However, despite pilfering Revis, the Jets still lag behind their Northeast rivals at quarterback.
Since entering the league in 2012, Geno Smith ranks in the bottom three of virtually every passing category, while Ryan Fitzpatrick's 3.5 percent career interception rate, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, has always made him more of a stopgap quarterback than his occasional flashes might suggest.
First-year head coach Todd Bowles should have lots of fun fusing his game-planning creativity with the talent abundant throughout his defense, but the Jets offense figures to flounder behind a poor quarterback situation and shaky offensive line play.
Perhaps this ranking will change if New York snags Marcus Mariota in the draft, but for now, this is a game New England should have in its back pocket.
Prediction: Win, 20-10
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4th-Toughest Game: Away vs. Dallas Cowboys, Week 5
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The Patriots have been excellent after bye weeks under Bill Belichick, going 12-4, but traveling to Arlington will be one of the tougher post-bye tasks they've faced.
The reigning NFC East champs still have a DeMarco Murray-sized hole in their backfield but have the resources to fill that need with either a much-ballyhooed trade for Adrian Peterson or a draft pick like Melvin Gordon or Tevin Coleman.
No matter who touts the rock, Dallas' offensive line will be one of the toughest challenges the Patriots face all season. FO's metrics ranked the Cowboys line first in Adjusted Line Yards and second in both second-level and open-field yards, an indication of its ability to break long runs. With all five starters returning for 2015, Dallas will probably boast a top-five line once again.
Defensively, Rod Marinelli helped hide mediocre talent throughout the roster, as the Cowboys finished 15th in allowing 22.1 points per game but ranked 22nd in defensive DVOA, suggesting a unit that overperformed in 2014.
New England won't need to worry about the suspended Greg Hardy in this game, though mobile linebackers Sean Lee and Rolando McClain give Dallas a potential answer in bracket coverage against Rob Gronkowski.
Having this game after a bye decreases the degree of difficulty slightly, but this is still a tough situation for the Patriots. Bradley Fletcher surely won't look forward to reuniting with Dez Bryant, and given the Cowboy's advantage in the trenches, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the inferior talent in New England's secondary be exposed.
Prediction: Loss, 38-31
3rd-Easiest Game: Home vs. Washington, Week 9
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The final game of a cushy midseason three-week homestand, the Patriots should take care of Washington as they transition into a subsequent stretch that includes four consecutive games against teams with winning records from last season. The Pats will also have a 10-day layoff before facing D.C., having played a Thursday night game against Miami the week before.
When New England practiced with Washington last summer, some beat reporters remarked on a noticeable change in approach, urgency and general professionalism between the two franchises. D.C. has been an unstable franchise for the majority of Dan Snyder's ownership, and 2015 looms as a referendum on yet another era, as Jay Gruden and Robert Griffin III could both be on the outs with another disappointing campaign.
However, new GM Scot McCloughan does instill some credibility in the personnel department. Washington probably overpaid for cornerback Chris Culliver but nabbed a pair of nice values in defensive linemen Terrance Knighton and Stephen Paea while upgrading the safety spots with Dashon Goldson and Jeron Johnson.
Make no mistake, though, this is still a team full of holes and needs a couple of strong drafts before returning to contender status. A return to 2012 form for RG3 alone could make this game compelling, but otherwise the Pats possess the superior roster across the board.
Prediction: Win, 34-20
3rd-Toughest Game: Away vs. Buffalo Bills, Week 2
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The Patriots' first road game of the year could be one of its toughest challenges, especially given New England's general struggles in September the past two seasons.
The Rex Ryan-era Jets had a penchant for starting seasons strong; from 2008-14, Gang Green held a .536 winning percentage in September versus a .476 winning percentage the rest of the regular season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Given the energy Ryan has injected into a moribund Bills franchise, it's not hard to envision a similarly strong start. Buffalo has the potential to field the best defense in the league in 2015; with the offensive-minded Doug Marrone at the helm in 2014, the Bills finished with the second-best defense by DVOA last year.
Though Ryan will incorporate more 3-4 principles than the heavy one-gapping system Jim Schwartz ran last year, the talent at all three levels of this defense should thrive regardless.
The issues on offense are probably greater than people realize, however.
Buffalo's O-line, which finished 26th in adjusted line yards and 20th in adjusted sack rate last year, is still a huge problem that needs upgrades at both guard spots and right tackle. The three-way quarterback race between Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor has the potential to turn into a revolving door, while LeSean McCoy's improvisational, perimeter running style looks like a poor fit for the predetermined reads in Ryan's gap-blocking scheme.
Still, Buffalo's defense can keep it in any game, and Ralph Wilson is always on fire when the Pats come to town. As New England continues to round into form, the guess here is that the Bills will jump on their big brothers and steal one from the division bullies.
Prediction: Loss, 19-17
2nd-Easiest Game: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 3
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The Jags have been the league's doormats over the past four seasons, as their .219 winning percentage (14-50) in that time is easily the worst in the league.
However, while erstwhile GM Gene Smith's historically bad drafting set Jacksonville back with an empty cupboard, the new leadership under Gus Bradley and David Caldwell has at least infused the franchise with a discernible sense of direction.
Last year, Jacksonville's rookie wide receiver trio of Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee helped form a rookie-reliant passing game along with first-year quarterback Blake Bortles. While the Jags still ranked at or near the bottom of most passing statistics, the building blocks are in place for a competent offense.
Much of that will depend on Bortles' progression, of course, though Jacksonville has done well to boost his supporting cast with the free-agent signings of Julius Thomas and right tackle Jermey Parnell.
However, it's on defense where the Jaguars' have made the sneakiest progress. Jacksonville's defense ranked 20th in DVOA after finishing in the bottom five the previous two seasons, including 13th against the pass. Though the team still needs a rangy centerfield safety to play Bradley's Seahawkian brand of defense (hence their pursuit of Devin McCourty), promising young pieces like Dwayne Gratz and Jonathan Cyprien should have long-term futures.
On paper, though, there isn't an area where the Jaguars would hold a clear advantage over the Patriots in a matchup at Gillette. After two tricky games to open the season, this should be a breezy Sunday for New England as it heads into its Week 4 bye.
Prediction: Win, 34-16
2nd-Toughest Game: Away vs. Indianapolis Colts, Week 6
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In four games against the Andrew Luck-era Colts, the Patriots have won by an average of 29 points per game.
From a New England perspective, Indy will have an especially prominent bull's-eye on its back after this interminable Ted Wells investigation has allowed the franchise's reputation to twist in the wind amid unsubstantiated leaks.
But while bitterness may exist, that does not mean the Patriots can expect to steamroll Indy by another four-touchdown margin. After years of handing out overpriced deals to mediocre veterans like LaRon Landry and Ricky Jean-Francois, the Colts appear to have hit upon some nice values aimed at combating the Patriots.
Andre Johnson and Frank Gore were the headline grabbers, but low-cost signings like Todd Herremans, Dwight Lowery, Trent Cole and Nate Irving also fix important depth issues that permeated the Colts roster last season. Yes, Indy added a lot of age (nine of 22 currently projected starters are over 30), but this roster shapes up to have a strong one-year surge before a possible Andrew Luck mega-extension kicks in.
It'll be interesting to see preseason win lines from Football Outsiders and other projection systems after the draft. According to ESPN.com's David Purdum (h/t CBSSports.com's John Breech), some oddsmakers made Indy Super Bowl favorites after their early free-agent splashes, though the current championship odds at Odds Shark still give the Pats the upper hand.
Regardless, this looks like a tough spot for the Patriots, especially given that it comes right after their trip to Dallas.
Prediction: Loss, 30-28
Easiest Game: Home vs. Tennessee Titans, Week 15
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This might drop behind the Jacksonville game if the Philip Rivers-to-Tennessee rumors detailed by NFL.com's Adam Schein do materialize, but for now, the Titans rank as New England's easiest 2015 game due to their dearth of high-upside young talent.
Whereas the Jags could conceivably take a leap forward next year with the skeleton of a contender in place, the Titans are still beginning a long-overdue teardown that figures to confine them to the top 10 of the draft the next couple of seasons.
As Grantland's Bill Barnwell detailed last month, Tennessee finds itself holding the second overall pick in the draft largely due to wretched drafting since 2008, particularly in the first three rounds. Moreover, following the retirement of CEO and president Tommy Smith, there's a chance the Adams family could sell the team, possibly resulting in a coaching staff and roster overhaul as well.
In short, this is an organization in desperate need of stability that faces more questions than answers at the moment.
The Titans did make some shrewd free-agent moves this spring, inking Brian Orakpo, Da'Norris Searcy and Perrish Cox to help the pass defense. Since defensive tackle Jurrell Casey and edge-rusher Derrick Morgan performed at a Pro Bowl level in their first year under defensive coordinator Ray Horton, there's actually the semblance of a quality front seven taking shape.
Still, there's virtually no stability at any of the offensive skill position spots, as the Titans haven't seen much return from boom-or-bust gambles like Justin Hunter or Bishop Sankey. An expensive offensive line somehow needs significant upgrades at center and right tackle, and despite impressive surface stats, Zach Mettenberger probably isn't a long-term solution at quarterback.
Even if the Titans take Marcus Mariota, he's a project who likely won't do much to affect Tennessee's 2015 outlook.
Prediction: Win, 41-17
Toughest Game: Away vs. Denver Broncos, Week 12
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Mile High has always been Tom Brady's bugaboo, as his career 2-5 record at Denver is his worst road winning percentage against any team.
Though the Broncos are in a bit of a transition phase, having hired a new head coach and absorbed numerous free-agent defections, a healthy Peyton Manning will make them Super Bowl contenders in 2015.
Indeed, much of Manning's performance appeared related to the strained quad injuries he suffered at the end of the year. Analyses of Manning's 2014 regression have portrayed his drop-off as a sudden rather than gradual one, suggesting that most of his struggles stemmed from his lower-body issues.
Durability is no longer a guarantee for the 39-year-old, but if healthy, Manning should play more like he did over the first eight games of last year, when he led the NFL in virtually every passing category.
More importantly, Gary Kubiak's arrival is likely to turn Denver into a more run-heavy, zone-based offense. That's a change worth making not only because of Manning's age but also because of C.J. Anderson's breakout 2014 campaign.
Anderson's 4.7 yards per attempt behind a constantly shifting Denver O-line was a highly impressive showing for the first-time starter; the 24-year-old also finished fourth in DVOA behind only Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Lamar Miller.
Coupled with a defense that possesses two elite edge-rushers and speed all over the back seven, the Broncos look primed to bounce back from last year's disappointing Divisional Round exit.
Offseason narratives have strangely portrayed the AFC as a two-horse race between New England and Indianapolis, but the Broncos could provide a harsh wake-up call next November.
Prediction: Loss, 30-21
Advanced stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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