Issues the Milwaukee Bucks Need to Address to Succeed in the NBA Playoffs
Fourteen years removed from any sort of postseason relevance, the Milwaukee Bucks appear to be locks for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That 2000-01 team featuring Sam Cassell, Ray Allen and Glenn Robinson was the last to carry the franchise past the dreaded first-round exit: a playoff conclusion that Bucks fans have become all too comfortable with.
Fast-forward to an ownership change, surrounded by a young corps of eager players, and Milwaukee now clasps a newfound hope in its basketball franchise. Major improvements, however, are still needed if the Bucks hope to escape the infamous land of NBA mediocrity.
Roster Inconsistencies
Open any Milwaukee basketball blog, and you will continue to stumble upon grumblings of the Brandon Knight-Michael Carter-Williams (MCW) trade-deadline explosion. With an offensive-focused fanbase, trading away a team's leading scorer is certain to capture an incredible amount of criticism. The true issue is that the Bucks do not know what they have in MCW.
The statistical breakdown of the past five games, per ESPN.com, is equivalent to what Milwaukee has seen since the All-Star break. On a given night, MCW could drop 21 points and 10 boards, only to score eight points with six turnovers two nights later. The term "streaky" is an understatement as the 2014 Rookie of the Year continues to develop.
Concerns also arise from the other young Buck, Giannis Antetokounmpo. By now, one has likely already seen his highlight-reel potential. The come-from-behind blocks and the coast-to-coast drives and slams are just small tastes of Antetokounmpo's athletic repertoire.
Unfortunately, Antetokounmpo struggles with one of the most basic basketball attributes: the jump shot. On the bright side, he's only 20 years old, so the time allowed to develop is certainly advantageous. But the current shooting form is so underdeveloped that Antetokounmpo sports an awkward release that leads to seemingly reluctant decisions to try to score from more than five feet from the hoop. His heat map is a great representation, per Basketball-Reference.com:
To clarify, no, that's not the graph of a 7'0", 300-pound center. But rather, it's that of arguably the most athletic player on the Bucks. Within a simple scouting report, teams are able to change how they defend. Sure, Antetokounmpo always has the possibility to pull up, but he will more than likely depend on his drive to the net.
And finally, the Bucks lack a reliable center to carry them through the postseason. Following the Larry Sanders crash and burn, Milwaukee is now left with the aging Zaza Pachulia. And while the 6'11", 270-pound big man has been serviceable of late, averaging 11 points and nine rebounds over the past 10 games, he doesn't hold a light to the competition he'll face atop the East.
Look at the top teams in the conference, and each has a dominant big man. The Hawks run with Al Horford and Paul Millsap. Cleveland has seen a significant upgrade, moving from Anderson Varejao to Timofey Mozgov. And Chicago can literally pick a name out of a hat to decide who is lucky enough to run up points on Pachulia, choosing from Joakim Noah, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson.
Road Record
A certain learning curve is it be expected with such a young squad, but struggles away from the Bradley Center have also proved to be troubling. Milwaukee is currently 16-23 on the road this season, which includes losses to the Jazz, the Nuggets and even the Lakers. Granted, only four teams in the Eastern Conference hold positive records on the road, but concerns become realistic as the playoffs near and Milwaukee looks to travel a higher-seeded team.
Season Outlook
Even with Milwaukee's struggles on the road, a particular playoff matchup can have a direct correlation to success. For example, if we leap over to the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies at 52-25 have been one of the strongest teams all year. But slotted currently with the third playoff seed, the Grizzlies look to face the San Antonio Spurs in the first round, which are hopeful for a third consecutive NBA Finals appearance.
Based on this, one can argue that if the Bucks can find the right matchup, they have a chance at moving forward in the first round. No patterns of success arise, however, when looking at Milwaukee's record against the top four in the conference:
- Atlanta: 1-3
- Cleveland: 1-2
- Chicago: 1-3
- Toronto: 1-2
Oddly enough, only one of those four wins occurred at home. It is also worth noting that Chicago will end up being the likely opponent, as it looks to pull away from Toronto with the return of Derrick Rose.
Either way, the likes of facing Chicago or Toronto are much more promising than a potential matchup against Atlanta or Cleveland. With five games remaining on the schedule and a 2.5-game lead over Brooklyn, Milwaukee's games against the Cavaliers and Nets could prove to become spoilers. Finishing out the season with Philadelphia and Boston, though, the Bucks should feel comfortable with their current spot in the standings.
Correcting each of the issues detailed above will be a more difficult task. For players like MCW and Antetokounmpo, developing team chemistry and a consistent jump shot will take time and cannot be cured in a day. Additionally, one cannot expect a veteran like Pachulia to magically turn into Anthony Davis, endangering anything that comes in the way of him and the hoop.
Therefore, success can only be attained through strategy. The Bucks hold the fourth-best defensive rating in the league, according to Basketball-Reference.com, and it showed in their win against the Bulls on April 1. Milwaukee forced 20 turnovers and held Chicago to a 19.2 three-point percentage, per ESPN.com. While this was certainly a rare occurrence, stranger things have happened in the NBA playoffs. And if the Bucks wish to advance past the first round, defensive prowess is a necessity.
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