Complete Oakland Athletics 2015 Season Preview
The Oakland Athletics 2015 season is upon us, with not too much changing during spring training.
A few players were injured, a few others stood out, and some who were expected to do well floundered. All three of these occurrences should switch a thing or two up, but overall, the team is who we thought they were.
Of course, there is still a week of preseason baseball, so additional changes could be made.
But for now, let's take a look at what's happened so far and preview the rotation, bullpen and lineup now that answers are a bit clearer.
Spring Training Recap
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Spring training isn't quite over just yet, but it's given us a few quality moments—some good, some unexpectedly bad.
Best Moment
Will Ferrell took the field as part of an effort to raise cancer awareness. During the stint, Ferrell suited up for 10 teams, including the A's.
You can check out his Baseball-Reference page here.
Early Head-Turner
Marcus Semien got to work fast, going 5-for-5 with a walk and two home runs in his first two games. The home runs weren't cheap, either, coming off San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner and another against Brett Bochy. Semien was responsible for seven RBI as well.
Late Head-Scratcher
The A's decided to send middle reliever Ryan Cook to the minors on March 24. The four-year veteran was an All-Star in 2012 but was spotty in 2014 and worse this March during spring training.
It's odd to send a veteran of Cook's status down with spring training games left. The thought process is the sooner the team sends Cook down, the sooner he works things out and comes back up.
More Notables
Guys like Billy Burns and Kendall Graveman have seemingly broken out during spring training. We'll get to them in upcoming slides.
One guy who isn't mentioned much elsewhere in this article is Tyler Ladendorf. But Ladendorf, a utilityman who can play middle infield, third base and the outfield, has hit well enough that some fans wonder if Eric Sogard should be replaced.
In 47 at-bats, third on the team, Ladendorf responded with 15 hits, two doubles, a triple, one home run and 11 RBI. He hasn't walked at all, though, and has struck out 10 times.
Also not mentioned much here, Barry Zito is trying to lock down a spot in the rotation (or at least with the team). He started rocky but recently netted 11 consecutive scoreless innings.
Elsewhere, J.P Sportsman has begun turning heads late.
Granted, he only had two at-bats, but he made the most of them with one double, one home run and two RBI.
And in case you missed it, the team announced it will permanently move former center fielder Coco Crisp to left field.
Injury Updates
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Sean Doolittle
The A's closer is still out (as expected) with a left rotator cuff tear. He currently has no timetable. However, according to CSN's Joe Stiglich, he has begun a throwing program, which is the first step.
A.J. Griffin
Griffin is on the 60-day disabled list as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. On March 17, he threw a short side session consisting of fastballs and changeups, with some modified breaking pitches, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. On March 24, he threw all of his pitches, as reported by John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group.
Griffin is scheduled to return sometime in June.
Jarrod Parker
Parker is scheduled to return possibly by June. He threw 30 pitches in a simulated game on March 18, according to MLB.com's injury report. He threw a second session on March 23, which manager Bob Melvin described as excellent, according to MLB.com's Jane Lee.
Josh Reddick
As of March 23, Reddick returned to outfield work and hitting off a tee, according to Slusser. The A's hope to have Reddick healthy and available for Opening Day after an oblique strain sidelined him temporarily. On March 22, Slusser said Reddick would need 15-20 at-bats "to be ready for Opening Day" which is doable if he gets into games later in the week as planned.
Lineup Preview
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Lineup
Coco Crisp, S
Sam Fuld, L
Ben Zobrist, S
Billy Butler, R
Stephen Vogt, L
Brett Lawrie, R
Ike Davis, L
Josh Reddick, L
Marcus Semien, R
Bench
Mark Canha
Craig Gentry
Eric Sogard
Josh Phegley
Analysis
It's not a perfect lineup, and it's likely not the one that will be used every day. The A's often deploy a variety of lineups across the span of a season.
For this slide, I simply listed a standard lineup in which the batters remain in spots they're relatively used to in their careers and one where they switch off from left-handers to right-handers.
Crisp at the top is a given.
Fuld, Zobrist or Craig Gentry could hit second. Fuld and Gentry offer tons of speed, while Zobrist has experience hitting second The way he hit in spring training, Semien could even garner the spot.
The No. 3 spot should be someone like Zobrist if he isn't in the second spot or Lawrie if he stays healthy, really hits for power consistently and gets on base a ton. Vogt might also be a candidate here.
Butler at four makes sense given his power.
Behind Butler, a power-potential guy like Vogt, Lawrie or Davis is ideal. Reddick could eventually move into the spot if he returns to his 2012-like numbers.
For six through eight, you'll see whoever remains of Vogt, Reddick, Davis and Lawrie. When backup players such as Phegley, Sogard and Canha are in the lineup, you'll also see them toward the bottom of the lineup. That's a given.
As for ninth, it may be Semien if he doesn't hit second. If he does, Fuld or Gentry would be the best options for the "second leadoff" spot.
Utility man Ladendorf is close to making the roster. Should an infielder become injured, Ladendorf will likely be the first called up. Similarly, Burns could be called upon if an outfielder is injured.
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Rotation Preview
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Sonny Gray, R
Scott Kazmir, L
Jesse Hahn, R
Drew Pomeranz, L
Kendall Graveman, R
Gray and Kazmir at the top—those two are obvious.
The three spots after are (or were) a bit more complicated.
Pomeranz and Graveman had a dynamite spring training. It's going to be difficult to deny either guy a spot in the rotation. The team remains high on Hahn, who showed great stuff in spring despite stats that don't paint the whole picture.
Then there's Jesse Chavez, who started in the rotation last season.
Chavez has experience in the bullpen, however, so it's an easy out to simply put him back there and give the three spots to the top three guys. Moving Chavez to the bullpen has consequences on other guys, but we'll get there next.
Bullpen Preview
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Bullpen
Jesse Chavez, R
Dan Otero, R
Eric O'Flaherty, L
Evan Scribner, R
Fernando Abad, L
Tyler Clippard, R
Sean Doolittle, L
Analysis
With Doolittle not available for Opening Day, it's up to Tyler Clippard to close out games until Doolittle's return.
Behind him, Otero, O'Flaherty and Abad have spots locked up.
I'm putting Chavez in the pen on purpose to free up a logjam in the rotation. Chavez has experience in both roles, so it'd be easy enough to keep him as a reliever and push him back into the rotation if needed.
The team announced Cook has been sent down to Triple-A.
This comes on the heels of a couple of poor spring training performances and one additional bad outing late last season.
Scribner could make the team based simply on the fact that he is out of options, meaning if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, the team must release or designate him. If not Scribner, the team could turn to young R.J. Alvarez, who had a quality spring.
The bullpen situation could change, though.
Cook could eventually return. Doolittle could land on the disabled list. One of those actions would force a move; the other would open a spot.
Prospects to Watch
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Kendall Graveman
Ranked Oakland's No. 6 prospect by MLBPipeline.com, Graveman appears to be on the verge of gaining a spot in the rotation after a masterful spring.
Assuming he does indeed make the roster, it'll be exciting to continue watching him.
Is spring training a fluke, or is Graveman the real deal? Will he be as dynamite against MLB rosters every fifth day over the course of a full season as he was in March against full squads? And should he be as excellent as he appears to be now, what does this do to Griffin or Parker's status once they return from Tommy John?
Gravemen is the guy to watch.
Mark Canha
MLBPipeline.com has Canha listed as No. 20. At the start of spring training, he simply looked to have a spot on the roster. About midway through, he figured to be a backup outfielder. Today, with an oblique injury to Reddick and an elbow issue with Crisp, Canha may actually get a few early looks.
If Reddick and Crisp aren't available, Canha could be on the field Opening Day.
Pipeline gives him a grade of 50 on hitting, power and arm. He received a 45 on fielding. If those numbers are accurate, Canha makes for an intriguing player.
Might he squeeze someone out and become an everyday starter?
Billy Burns
The speedy outfielder just falls out of the list of the top-20 prospects, but keep your eye on him. If Crisp is out for Opening Day, it could open up a short-term spot for Burns.
Burns has a batting average of .392 in 51 spring training at-bats (as of this writing). He's walked three times, struck out five times and stolen four bases. His hits include two doubles and three triples.
This spring, Burns worked with Rickey Henderson as well.
"Henderson believes Burns’ base-stealing ability and continued development as a hitter go hand in hand. The better a hitter he becomes, the more he’ll get on base. And the more he gets on base and causes havoc, the more strikes he’ll see while batting, since pitchers won’t want to walk him.
“I just think he’s gotta be more patient and make contact,” Henderson said. “Be patient at the plate, not chasing bad pitches. Once he starts to learn that and starts getting on the base paths a lot, then he’s gonna get better pitches (to hit).”
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Working with a legend like Henderson should help Burns' development and may fast-track him to the big leagues.
Breakout Candidates
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If only Craig Gentry had the opportunity to be a full-time player, I'd easily go with him to break out. However, he's platooning with Fuld in center field.
Reddick may re-breakout, if that's a thing. He had a monster season in 2012 and has yet to meet those numbers again. But it's possible.
Based on the last slide, Graveman and Canha are strong candidates for breakout seasons.
Additionally, it looks like Semien could make a name for himself in 2015, and Lawrie could finally have a full season and play up to his ceiling.
Marcus Semien
It's going to be entertaining when yet another Oakland Athletic has a stellar season and makes national analysts and fans of other teams wonder who in the heck he is.
In 15 spring training games, Semien hit .302, smacking three doubles and two home runs. He scored nine times and plated nine runs. In the field, he turned 10 double plays and only committed one error.
ZiPS (via FanGraphs) projects Semien to play 144 games and finish with a .282 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), .315 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) and a wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created) of 104. With some context, the projections have Semien's BABIP below average, his wOBA about average and his wRC+ average.
Said simply, he's projected to be a league-average player.
That may turn out to be true. But if spring is any indication of what Semien could do, A's fans could be in for a better-than-average treat.
Brett Lawrie
If healthy, Lawrie is capable of putting up 20-plus home runs, 90 RBI and a WAR in the 4.0 area, based on what he's done in limited time in the past.
As Adrian Garro of Fox Sports writes, "(Lawrie has) gone on record to express an enthusiasm for trading the hard turf of the Rogers Centre in Toronto for the natural grass and dirt in Oakland in hopes of remaining healthy enough to stay on the field, something he hasn't yet been able to do at the big-league level."
Health will be the key for Lawrie. If he's healthy, there's no reason he shouldn't produce.
Top Keys to Success
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Stay Healthy
I want to write that in all caps.
Health is important for every team, but for whatever reason, this team seems to be unhealthy often and at all the wrong times.
The leadoff hitter has a hurt elbow. The Gold Glove right fielder has a strained oblique. Two starting pitchers had Tommy John last season. The catcher had ankle surgery during the offseason. The All-Star closer tore a rotator cuff. Already.
Then there's Lawrie.
He's been plagued with injuries his entire career. Now he's tasked with replacing Josh Donaldson, who played in 158 games. He'll need some luck.
The starting rotation has seemingly eight or so viable options for five spots. The rest of the positions don't quite have that same luxury.
Sustained Success
The A's don't need to come out so hot they're praised as World Series contenders in May (see 2014). It'd be nice, but look where it got them last season.
Instead, they need to sustain the success.
They'll certainly go through a lull or two. Every team does during the season. But the lull can't be July through August. That's too long and too late. On paper, 88 wins is great. But when 59 of them come in the first half and the team stalls in the second half, a team once destined to win a division is forced into a one-game elimination.
Fill the Big Shoes (as Best They Can)
Donaldson to Lawrie. Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija to (potentially) Hahn and Graveman. Yoenis Cespedes to Butler. Brandon Moss to Davis.
The new guys most likely won't be able to fill the shoes completely. But they have to at least try them on for size.
It has to be a team effort, though.
On the one hand, if the pitching staff can keep Oakland's opponents to 2-3 runs, it should allow the offense to do just enough to win games without the Donaldson, Moss and Cespedes production. On the other hand, much of the new rotation is young, so the veteran hitters must do enough to help their pitchers relax.
Wins Against the AL West
The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels (and maybe even the Houston Astros) pose a threat to the A's. However it shakes out, it could be extremely close in the end. The top three teams from the AL West could conceivably finish within two or three games of each other.
Beating the Mariners, Angels, Astros and, while we're at it, the Texas Rangers, is crucial—especially late in the season when and if it's close.
I know. So easy, right?
Previewing the Opening Series
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Opponent: Texas Rangers
Games: 4
Venue: O.Co Coliseum
Opposing Pitchers: Yovani Gallardo, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, undetermined
The Oakland A's open up at home against the Rangers in a four-game series on Monday, April 6.
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Gallardo will pitch in Game 1. He will be followed, most likely, by Holland, if he's healthy enough, and Lewis.
Before we get into this series further, let's take a moment to thank the baseball gods for giving the A's a break once again. Oakland will not face Felix Hernandez on Opening Day. Hallelujah!
The A's haven't faced Gallardo much in the last few years. In 2013, a few guys owned him, but he kept a few others hitless. The guys who hit well against him include Yoenis Cespedes, John Jaso, Josh Donaldson and Jed Lowrie. Coco Crisp and Eric Sogard hit .000 against him.
Here's what Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote about Gallardo:
"Gallardo is changing teams, and Gallardo is changing leagues, but maybe most importantly, Gallardo is changing catchers. You probably already know about Gallardo’s worrisome strikeout trend. In 2010, he struck out a quarter of the batters he faced. The rate has dropped every season, plunging to last year’s 18%.
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Most importantly, though, is that Gallardo, again, is not King Felix (or Yu Darvish for that matter). So maybe that's all the motivation the team needs to get its first Opening Day win since 2004. That was over 10 years ago. Ten.
Holland has pitched 18 games against Oakland.
Of course, the team's turnover seems unparalleled. But Holland is 5-4 with a 3.26 ERA. He also has a 1.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio against Oakland, which is low. So he may not strikeout many, but he's effective when he's on.
Essentially, you don't know what you're going to see versus Holland.
Lewis has done well in the past against the A's overall. Though in 2014, Oakland got to him a bit, hitting .324 and scoring six earned runs in two games.
We're not sure who will pitch in the fourth game yet, but the Rangers list Ross Detwiler as their fourth starter on their website.
I spoke to NolanWriting.com writer Lisa Weatherall via Twitter about the starting staff. She said Gallardo's numbers aren't reflective of how he's pitched and that Holland has looked good in spring. She added that Lewis typically takes awhile to warm up for the season.
An early April game against him could work in Oakland's favor.
As for the lineup, Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo are returning from injuries that cut 2014 short. Adrian Beltre returns to haunt the A's as he has always done in the past. Jurickson Profar is out for the season. And the team will have a new left fielder when the season starts. It's likely Jake Smolinski or Ryan Rua, both of whom have hit well at O.co.
The Rangers had a poor 2014 season and haven't done much outside of lose key players to injury once again this season.
A's fans should be salivating at facing Texas in the opening series.
2015 Season Outlook
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The Los Angeles Angels are the reigning AL West champions, so as of now, they're still the favorites to win again, despite losing Josh Hamilton for an unknown amount of time.
The Seattle Mariners are rising fast. They could be a real contender, not just for the division, but for the American League crown.
Realistically, however the three teams finish, it could come down to the final days of September.
Looking at the schedule, it won't be easy for the A's.
In April, they have the Mariners, Angels and American League champion Kansas City Royals. May follows with more Mariners plus the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers. June sees similar opponents, the Royals again and the San Diego Padres.
July may be the easiest month. The A's will face teams such as the Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins. It evens out toward the end with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays. August has the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians in town, along with the Dodgers once more and the Tampa Bay Rays.
September finishes with all the familiar foes plus away games against the White Sox.
The A's finish the season in Seattle.
Looking at the schedule, the A's can definitely will around 85 games. If they stay healthy and consistent, 90 is reachable.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the season will come near the trade deadline. Should the A's not be in contention, they have several pieces that could be moved. Around June, they'll have two starting pitchers return from injury, and at some point, their All-Star closer returns. Those three returns could shake things up wildly.
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