Kevin Durant Is Becoming the Biggest X-Factor in OKC Thunder's 2015 Playoff Run
Kevin Durant is the missing piece to the Oklahoma City Thunder's championship puzzle. His ability to return to form after the latest setback with his troublesome right foot is the difference between the team fortifying itself as a contender or wilting by the wayside as a pretender.
Durant has made the most of his time on the floor this season, with averages of 25.4 points and 6.6 rebounds, but his bum wheel has caused him to struggle to find any kind of rhythm. He's played in just 27 of the team's 66 games and hasn't been seen in uniform since Feb. 19. Head coach Scott Brooks, per NBA.com, says the reigning MVP should be back in "a week to two weeks."
According to Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman, Durant recently participated in his first practice since having a screw replaced in his surgically repaired foot. He took part in contact and team activities, including playing some 3-on-3. Slater also says that the 26-year-old could return as early as March 18 against the Boston Celtics but that the team is being "understandably cautious".
While KD has been on the sidelines, the team has grown stronger.
Oklahoma City added key role players at the trade deadline in Enes Kanter, D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler and Steve Novak, while star point guard Russell Westbrook has forced his way into the MVP conversation with a stat line of 27.5 points (first in the NBA), 8.3 assists (fourth) and 7.2 boards. The UCLA product also has six triple-doubles in his last nine games.
However, even with the rest of the squad stepping up in Durant's absence, the Thunder are still battling to stay ahead in the Western Conference playoff race. At 37-29, they hold just a one-game lead over the New Orleans Pelicans for the eighth seed with 16 games left to go. In other words, Durant's return will decide whether his team moves on or goes home.
The Thunder will need Durant to make a speedy recovery in order to fend off the Pels and solidify their playoff spot. If he comes back strong, this team will be a problem for whoever has the misfortune of facing them. If he can't, this might go down as one of the biggest "what if?" seasons in recent memory.
Raising the Ceiling
Any prediction on how the team will perform once Durant returns is pure speculation at this point.
After all, we haven't seen how his body will respond to this latest procedure or how he'll co-exist with his new teammates. In his entire pro career, Durant has never had the luxury of playing with an offensive center such as Kanter, who has averaged 15.7 points per game since making his Thunder debut on Feb. 21.
In an interview with Slater, Durant seemed excited about the new additions.
"D.J. [Augustin], I’ve known him since I was 17 years old. So I played with him in college, so I know exactly what he brings. And seeing Enes [Kanter] and Kyle [Singler] and we've yet to see Double-Check [Steve] Novak in the game. But I’m looking forward to playing with those guys.
We’re tight already, everyone feels like a family already. That’s the most important part. On the court, it’s the easy part because we all know how to play. Smart players, they brought in.
"
On paper, the Thunder have a fearsome foursome that can compete with anything the West has to offer. When healthy, Durant is the game's best pure scorer. Now, you're adding that to a human wrecking ball in Westbrook, an interior force in Kanter and one of the best outside-shooting big men in Serge Ibaka. That's a nightmare for any team to defend against.
In fact, as seen by the chart below, the combined points per game of the Thunder's four best scorers tops the rest of the Western playoff teams' contingents by a significant margin. Granted, Durant's absence has prevented this four-man group from playing together, but Brooks would be wise to put his best four offensive weapons on the floor at the same time as much as possible.
It's important to keep in mind that the averages are skewed by players missing time, and the loss of two-way guard Wes Matthews to a season-ending Achilles injury impacted the Portland Trail Blazers' overall number. Still, a team that can get nearly 83 points from four guys on a nightly basis should be feared.
Durant's return should give the defense a boost.
While not typically known for his ability to guard the perimeter, KD can hold his own at that end of the floor. According to NBA.com, opponents shoot 40 percent from the field this season with KD defending as opposed to 44.7 percent in other situations. Opposing teams also have an offensive rating of 102.3 when Durant's on the floor, compared to 104.8 when he's sitting down, per Basketball-Reference.com.
In Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, guard Andre Roberson and center Steven Adams, the Thunder can trot out a lineup of guys who can defend their respective positions. That grouping has played 249 minutes together this season, the most of any Thunder five-man unit, and it has produced a defensive rating of 96.4, per NBA.com. Opponents are converting 44.3 percent of their field-goal attempts when that crew is on the court.
It's not often an NBA team gets its biggest star back just before the playoffs, and Durant has the ability to elevate the team's ceiling in a big way.
Westbrook Can't Do It Alone
Without Durant, the Thunder is the NBA's version of the school bully. The team imposes its will on inferior opponents while struggling to hang with teams that are actually in its weight class.
In the 12 games OKC has played without its star forward since the All-Star break, the team is 8-4, but only two of those victories came against teams with winning records (March 8 against Toronto Raptors and March 15 against Chicago Bulls).
In total, the team is 19-20 in the 39 games Durant has missed. Fifteen of those games were without Westbrook, and the Thunder are 5-10 without their dynamic duo.
Speaking of Westbrook, in the seven (yes, seven) games the Long Beach blur has notched a triple-double without Durant, Oklahoma City is 5-2. How many of those wins came against a winning team? One—that aforementioned victory over Toronto, a team that had lost seven of its last eight prior to facing OKC.
In losses to the Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers and in the first clash with the Bulls, we saw the good and bad Westbrook. In those three defeats, he tallied 122 points, 35 rebounds and 29 assists, while shooting 40-of-102 from the field (39.2 percent). The Thunder lost by a combined 10 points.
Why have the Thunder struggled to close out games against tough opponents, you ask? Sam Amick of USA Today has the answer.
"As fantastic as [Westbrook's] been, defenses can key in on him during closing stretches of games, especially if he's content to take the shot himself in lieu of an open teammate." Amick wrote, following the Thunder's 108-105 loss to the Chicago Bulls on March 5. "The Thunder need another option to space the floor, but Durant's health has prevented that."
Against teams such as the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Denver Nuggets, Westbrook's one-man show has been more than enough to carry OKC to victory. The problem is the Thunder won't see the T'Wolves or Nuggets in the playoffs.
If the Thunder stand a chance of keeping both their playoff and championship hopes alive, they need Durant to come back and help alleviate the burden from Westbrook's shoulders.
Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman summed up Westbrook's need for his Thunder buddy after the team's 120-108 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on March 11.
"This night was a reminder of how much the Thunder needs KD. Russ is great. Russ is spectacular. But Russ can’t do it alone, especially against the best teams in the league."
The bad news for Westbrook and the gang is the schedule is chock-full of teams that can withstand the point guard's onslaught.
Of the remaining 16 games on the docket, nine are against clubs among the top eight in their respective conferences that have the personnel to contain Westbrook. That includes two clashes with the Dallas Mavericks (Rajon Rondo), two with the San Antonio Spurs (Tony Parker) and the season finales against the Atlanta Hawks (Jeff Teague), Houston Rockets (Patrick Beverley) and Memphis Grizzlies (Mike Conley).
The harsh reality for the Thunder and its faithful fans is that while Westbrook is a legitimate MVP candidate and arguably the best player in basketball over the past month, the team isn't getting their ticket to the postseason punched without Durant.
For seven years, the biggest certainties in Oklahoma City were death, taxes and Kevin Durant.
Now, the franchise's greatest player is its biggest concern.
If Durant is successful in his second comeback from foot surgery this season, the Thunder have the balance to overcome their low seeding and make a run at a NBA championship.
Unfortunately, that's a huge if.
While the team battles to keep playing, the Thunder will be hopeful of putting together a strong finish and riding into the postseason.
Russell Westbrook has done everything short of cloning himself to keep OKC's playoff hopes alive, but the road ahead requires the presence of his ultra-talented partner.
The Thunder are a good team with Westbrook, but a healthy Durant lifts OKC to greatness.
Dave Leonardis is a Featured Columnist for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Bleacher Report. You can pick his brain by following him and his receding hairline on Twitter (@FrontPageDave).
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