Post All-Star Break Predictions for Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls are coming out of the All-Star break at 34-20 and with a lot of momentum they'll hope to build on.

The season has had its ups and downs, though. The most pressing issue moving forward is defense. What was once the most physically daunting unit has slipped quite a bit, showing a lack of effort at times as Derrick Rose noted after their Feb. 4 loss to the Houston Rockets, per CSN Chicago's Howard Chen.

Chicago has also been very hot and cold against good and bad teams alike. It shows up against tough competition, posting a 15-11 record against plus-.500 teams, the second-best mark in the Eastern Conference. Versus sub-.500 teams, however, it's 19-9, sixth in the East.

But the way the Bulls went into the break is encouraging.

They won four straight games, including a 15-point victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Feb. 12. Rose and Tony Snell played a big role in the ongoing win streak, and both could be headed for a big finish as the season nears its end.

It's time for Chicago to build on its success and flourish in the last couple of months.

Double-Digit Home Wins in Remaining Games

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With a 15-11 record at the United Center, Chicago's home woes this year are atypical. It could potentially surpass its worst home record during the Tom Thibodeau era (24-17 in 2012-13). The Bulls currently have a better road record at 19-9.

Pau Gasol stressed the importance of protecting the home court, per Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune: "There's no way around it. We need to win. We've got to do better at home. We've got to come out with fire—as a team, as a group."

Jimmy Butler echoed those sentiments:

"

We're a much better road team, and it's good to be a good road team. But we have to protect our home floor. Before you know it, it's All-Star break and then 30-something games left. So we need to correct everything now. There's no time for let-ups.

"

Road teams average 100.9 points per game against the Bulls, nearly two points higher than Chicago's season average and almost three more than the Bulls allow on the road. The offense has kept them alive, as they score 103.9 points a night at home.

But Chicago has some favorable matchups in its final 15 home games, hosting the Charlotte Hornets twice, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New York Knicks, among others. The Bulls also have a seven-game homestand from Feb. 21 to March 5 that could become a turning point in their roller-coaster season.

Running the table would be ideal, but at the very least, Chicago has to finish 5-2. With a couple of tough Western Conference opponents like the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Bulls will certainly be challenged.

That sense of urgency Gasol mentioned will be key as the Bulls look to turn around their home performance. They're coming out of the break hot, and winning at home will only get them rolling faster.

Tony Snell Will Crack Rotation

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It's been a rough two years for the New Mexico guard. Snell wasn't expected to get much—if any—playing time as a rookie, but his role became a giant question mark once the Bulls acquired Doug McDermott in the 2014 draft.

McDermott went down after 17 games, but Snell's minutes remained inconsistent despite several other injuries to wing players like Butler and Mike Dunleavy. Things changed with Kirk Hinrich's recent bout with turf toe, though.

Over his last four contests, the sophomore guard averaged 18.2 points—including back-to-back 20-point games—on 60 percent shooting from downtown. While it's unlikely he maintains such a strong mark from behind the arc, Snell has shown the ability to cut to the basket and finish at the rim while also playing solid defense on the other end.

His minutes will go down again with Hinrich slated to return Friday, but Thibodeau offered some thoughts on lineups after Wednesday's practice, per ESPN Chicago's Jon Greenberg:

"

You base it on performance. If a guy's playing well, obviously he plays. If he doesn't, you look at, what does the season tell you? You look at it, when the guy's played 10 minutes or more, what has he done? Twenty minutes or more, what has he done? Thirty minutes or more, what has he done?

"

Snell will have to earn his playing time, but he'll carve out a solid role as long as he continues playing with confidence.

Defense Will Remain the Same

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Over the last four games, Chicago allowed an average of 88.2 points per game, 11 points fewer than their season average. However, it came against some pretty weak competition like the Sacramento Kings and a New Orleans Pelicans team that lost Anthony Davis for the second half.

Overall, the Bulls defense just hasn't been as good as the past four years where they allowed no more than 93 points per contest. The Bulls have allowed 100-point games 25 times, the most in a single season since Thibodeau became the head coach in 2010.

There are a couple of critical areas where the Bulls have to improve, but pick-and-rolls have hurt them the most. On those sets, ball-handlers score .85 points per play, the fifth-worst mark in the league.

Chicago's interior defense has faltered, too.

Opponents average 43 points in the paint per game, 22nd in the league. Last season, the Bulls ranked second, allowing 37 points inside per contest. Second-chance points have played a role in this, as the Bulls rank 18th in that department, allowing 13.6 points. They ranked second in 2013-14, giving up 11.7 points.

Joakim Noah continues to improve as he gets healthier, and he will certainly help tighten up the defense.  The problem is he's been guarding 4s more often than not due to Gasol's presence, so Noah isn't able to anchor the defense in the paint like he did last year.

Gasol isn't a bad rim protector, but he doesn't have the quickness to help or switch like Noah does, which is why Chicago's interior defense has fallen a bit.

Fifty-four games in, it's hard to imagine the Bulls will change their habits so suddenly—it rarely happens with any team. Barring any lineup changes, their defense is likely to remain as it's been.

Derrick Rose Ends 2014-15 Averaging 20 Points Per Game

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Rose has averaged 20 points per game in every season except for 2013-14 (15.9), where he played just 10 games. He's been inching closer and closer to his career mark of 20.6 with every passing month, and he's currently standing at 18.9 points a night.

In order for Rose to finish with a scoring average of at least 20, he’ll have to average 23 points from here on out. It seems feasible given his more recent performances, as the former MVP has figured out how to be more effective and efficient.

Rose has been working inside the arc more frequently over his last few games. So far in February, 34 percent of his points have come from mid-range, his best rate since December (22.7 percent).

The most promising thing has been Rose's willingness to attack and his success rate at the rim. Over the last five games, he has converted 71 percent of his shots five feet or closer to the basket. It's a small sample size, but it's a considerable increase from the 47.9 percent he shot during January. 

Rose has to continue this style of play. He's been a lot more efficient, and it's even improved his playmaking, as defenses are forced to collapse when he's closer to the paint.

Rose looks the best he has all year. After a week-long break to get fresh, he could be in for a monster finish as the Bulls look to improve their playoff standings.

Finishing with a Top-Two Seed

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With the Atlanta Hawks nine games ahead of Chicago, it would take a meltdown in order for the Bulls to regain the East crown they once held. However, just 2.5 games separate them and the second-place Toronto Raptors, and Chicago has a favorable schedule coming up.

It has either a winning record or is 1-1 against every upcoming opponent except for the Washington Wizards, Phoenix Suns, Hawks and Cavaliers. There are two more games against the Raptors—who the Bulls have beaten twice—that could ultimately decide the final seeding, especially if it comes down to a tiebreaker.

Gasol knows Chicago needs more effort, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: "We have a chance to win. We need to be more consistent, play with a better sense of urgency every game. We have to understand that we have two months left and every game is important, especially how the standings are. We can't have any setbacks."

The good news is that the Bulls are finally healthy, a rare sight this season. Joakim Noah has been playing extremely well, moving comfortably around the court and impacting the game on both ends of the floor. Butler and Kirk Hinrich should return from their respective shoulder and toe injuries as well.

Chicago has had its regular starters just 16 times in 2014-15, posting a 13-3 record, as Johnson notes. If it can continue that success, the No. 2 seed shouldn't be far from the Bulls' grasp.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com.