Portland Trail Blazers: How to Beat Every Top West Team
As we head into the season's second half, the playoff picture is becoming clearer in the West. In turn, it makes it all that more important for the Portland Trail Blazers to find a way to knock off each contending team.
We'll only look at West teams with records above .600, though, despite the relative strength of the Phoenix Suns and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both have winning records and the talent to compete, but the Suns' lack of experience and the Thunder being on the outside looking in limits their credibility.
Both might make a surge over the next few months—specifically OKC—but they're not quite there at this point.
Portland currently holds the No. 2 record in its conference and has been one of the league's best two-way teams so far. Despite their 9-9 record against above-.500 teams, the Blazers are better than advertised, as they've battled injuries to integral players such as Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum.
In any case, Portland should be able to hold its own against its cohort. Let's take a look at just how it'll go down.
San Antonio Spurs: Win the Three-Point Line
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The Blazers have gone 2-1 against the San Antonio this season, but both wins came when the Spurs were missing key players. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard each missed a game at different points, but all four returned in a 110-96 victory over Portland on Jan. 16.
The Blazers, in true fashion, outdid the Spurs from the three-point line in the two victories, averaging 11 more long-range attempts. In the sole loss, though, San Antonio put up 29 shots from beyond the arc to Portland's 19.
Both teams have been terrific at defending such shots this season. The Blazers rank No. 1, and the defending champions are tied for third in opponent three-point field goals made per game.
They match up extremely well and play similar styles in terms of unselfish passing and opportunistic offense, but the true difference-maker will be the long-range shot.
Portland and San Antonio thrive on spreading the floor offensively while limiting their opponents' ability to do so. It's easier said than done given the Spurs' prowess and experience, but it's the sole advantage the Blazers can use to achieve victory.
San Antonio has superior coaching and team chemistry, seemingly being a constant on both ends regardless of the lineup on the floor. The roster is alarmingly deep, with 12 players playing at least 15.5 minutes per game, which goes against Portland's starter-heavy game plan.
Rip City must win the three-point line, though, as it'll lessen the burden of defending the Spurs' deep and cohesive roster.
Los Angeles Clippers: Lock Down the Scorers
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With the Blazers' strong perimeter defense, this one might be a little easier.
Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum both provide excellent man-on-man defense, and Damain Lillard is slowly evolving into a respectable stopper. In addition, LaMarcus Aldridge can be a force down low with his size and length troubling other frontcourt players.
Portland's trio matches up well with that of the Los Angeles Clippers, going against Chris Paul, Jamal Crawford and Blake Griffin.
In losses this season, Paul has shot just 42.9 percent and 30.5 percent from the field and from long range, respectively, with Crawford going for 36.7 percent and 27.1 percent in the same areas.
Griffin's accuracy falls from a 51.7 clip to 45.3 percent when L.A. comes up short in the win column, hence the Blazers' game plan is somewhat obvious in this case—though it should be their normal rapport to lock up any team's superstars.
But, like Portland, the Clippers' bench is less than stellar. Per Hoopsstats.com, it ranks No. 21 in scoring but just No. 28 in minutes and No. 27 in efficiency.
The Blazers' two losses to L.A. this season were close, one coming by four points and the other by six. Griffin and Paul have averaged just 34.1 percent and 41.7 percent shooting, respectively, in those two games, with Crawford putting up 22.5 points on 44.7 percent.
That threesome is core to the Clippers' success, and taking that away would yield preferable results for Portland. Though both games this season weren't successful, the final margin was close enough that the Blazers were able to keep up.
They've just got to get an extra step up on L.A., and that can come as Paul, Griffin and Crawford lose one.
Dallas Mavericks: Do What the Blazers Do Best
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Thus far, the Dallas Mavericks' season-low in scoring was 87 points on Nov. 6. It came against the Blazers in the early days of the season, and the two teams won't meet again until Feb. 7 in Texas before another two meetings.
But if the first game was any indication, Portland can get it done against the Mavs.
Once again, the Blazers match up well with another top West team. The entire starting lineup of both teams pits a big-name battle at almost every position, whether it's Aldridge against Dirk Nowizki, Lillard going at Rajon Rondo or Matthews versus Monta Ellis.
Heck, even Robin Lopez and Tyson Chandler down low is an interesting scramble.
Dallas thrives on offense, currently presiding over the NBA with the No. 1 mark in offensive efficiency per ESPN.com. The team's defensive efficiency ranks just No. 16, which gives Portland the advantage.
The Blazers' are tied for 10th in offensive efficiency, but are No. 4 in defensive efficiency. Portland's early season victory against the Mavs is truly indicative of this, which shouldn't change despite the latter's acquisition of Rondo.
The Mavs shot only 5-of-23 from three-point range and 36.7 percent overall, while the Blazers shot 51.9 percent en route to a 12-of-30 showing from beyond the arc.
Portland has evolved into a dominant team defensively, closing out on shooters and stopping dribblers in their tracks. The interior defense can give up a decent amount of points inside because of it, but Dallas has few inside scorers outside of Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons.
Rondo's presence helps in terms of distributing, but his lack of an outside shot plays right into the Blazers' hands. All Portland must do to get the upper hand against this team is to stick to its game plan, which is hitting outside shots while limiting those of its opponent.
Houston Rockets: Force Turnovers, Limit Three-Point Shooting
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The Houston Rockets are far too talented offensively, inside and out, for any mode of scoring to be handled properly.
James Harden's penetration opens up outside shots, while Dwight Howard's presence in the paint is too much one-on-one. What Portland can do, though, is force misses and miscues by the up-tempo Rockets.
The Blazers were utterly crushed by Houston on Dec. 22, as Harden went off for 44 points in 32 minutes. Both Lopez and Aldridge were out due to injury, and their interior play was sorely missed on both ends.
Portland's defense struggled, giving up 44 points in the paint and 13 three-pointers.
Per TeamRankings.com, 34.5 percent of the Rockets' offense comes from long range. Portland allows just 5.3 three-point shots per game, so it's almost a perfect match. But Harden and Howard pair to form a dominant duo that has shown to be too much for the Blazers.
Closing out on shooters should be the priority, but Rip City should also look to break up the offense. Per ESPN.com, Houston ranks No. 3 in turnover ratio, but Lillard and Co. force just 12.4 turnovers per game.
It'd take a concerted effort in that department, but it's an area Portland can exploit among very few against this squad. Lillard, Matthews, Batum and even Aldridge have the ability to steal the ball, though it doesn't necessarily have to come down to that.
Pressuring the Rockets' ball-handlers and big men in double teams could surrender out-of-bounds turnovers, all the while limiting offensive possessions. The perimeter defense has been relentless in chasing shooters off open attempts, and doing so in this instance would be no different.
Portland succeeded over Houston during the playoffs last season, holding it to just 21.5 percent from beyond the arc over the first two games. That number went up to 36.8 percent over the course of the series, but the fact that Portland was able to do so is evident.
The Blazers just need to be more consistent, with a little work on the in-between defense to really cause problems for the Rockets.
Memphis Grizzlies: Pack the Paint
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Despite the overall success of the Memphis Grizzlies, their outside shooting has remained glaringly absent over the past few seasons. Thus far, it's been no different.
Though the Grizzlies convert 34.7 percent, they knock down just 5.6 three-point field goals, which ranks No. 28 in the NBA. With Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in tow, the team is a very interior-orientated group offensively, thus Memphis ranks No. 1 in points in the paint per game at 47.6, per TeamRankings.com.
The Blazers have played the Grizzlies twice so far, both losses, with the latter team scoring 54 points at the rim on Nov. 28. The second of the two matchups, a close 102-98 loss, saw Memphis go for 38 points in the paint with an 8-of-15 showing from long range.
For Portland to be successful, forcing the Grizzlies to shoot from outside must be the priority. The only veteran shooters who are playing productively so far are Courtney Lee and Mike Conley, with Vince Carter and Beno Udrih shooting less than 30 percent from long range.
Newcomer Jeff Green, added to the team in a midseason swap with the Boston Celtics, provides an extra scoring punch off the bench. But even then, Green has shot 30.5 percent from deep in 33 games with Boston and a grizzly (get it?) 17.6 percent with Memphis so far.
Pressuring the Grizzlies away from the middle and to the perimeter forces things in Portland's favor in two ways: Memphis isn't a great outside-shooting team, and the Blazers are a terrific team defensively in that area.
Forcing Gasol and Randolph away from the rim is like chasing Lillard and Matthews off the three-point line, so it's much easier said than done. But if it can be achieved, Portland will have a major advantage over another top West power.
Golden State Warriors: Do Their Best
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The Golden State Warriors have lost just six games this season, and none bear a consistent pattern that Portland could exploit. The Warriors committed too many turnovers one game, missed everything from long range in another and gave up too many points in the middle through two others.
Overall, Golden State ranks No. 3 and No. 1 in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, per ESPN.com. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in the backcourt are too skilled offensively, with the intangible play of Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut dominating the inside.
A plethora of shooters, inside scorers, willing distributors and strong one-on-one defenders make the Warriors the NBA's best squad, with excellence exhibited from top to bottom.
All the Blazers can do is to try to beat Golden State at its own game.
Hitting threes, scoring inside and playing prohibitive perimeter defense—as well as beating the Warriors to offensive rebounds and loose balls—will give Portland a fighting chance.
The Blazers came close to handing the Warriors a loss in the first week of the season, tied heading into the fourth before losing 95-90.
Both teams rebounded and scored well inside, with Portland snatching 56 total boards. Golden State made just six outside shots to the Blazers' seven, and the two squads combined to turn the ball over 36 times in total. Portland lost the free-throw battle, attempting just 14 to the Warriors' 21 foul shots.
In the end, it'll truly come down to the Blazers exerting their strengths over those of the Warriors, trying to out-muscle Golden State on offense, defense and everything in between.
No easy feat.
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