15 Bold Predictions for the NBA During 2015
Last year was a busy one in the NBA, with Adam Silver taking over the league and kicking out Donald Sterling, LeBron James losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals before departing for the Cleveland Cavaliers, plenty of offseason drama and then a thoroughly enjoyable start to the 2014-15 season.
If 2015 can come anywhere close to matching that level of excitement from start to finish, we should all be thankful. And if it's nearly as unpredictable, it's going to make these bold predictions rather difficult to get right.
Nonetheless, we soldier on with 15 bold calls for 2015, focusing on the remainder of the current campaign, the ensuing offseason and the first trimester of the 2015-16 season. As is always the case, it's important to be bold enough to avoid just going along with the consensus opinion but realistic enough to steer clear of saying the Philadelphia 76ers will somehow make the playoffs.
Here's to an exciting 2015.
3 Sub-40-Win Teams in the Eastern Conference Playoffs
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In 1985-86, the Washington Bullets, New Jersey Nets and Chicago Bulls advanced to the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, despite winning 39, 39 and 30 games, respectively. It's the last time three teams from the same half of the NBA have made it past the regular season without winning at least 40 contests (excluding lockout-shortened seasons).
Nearly 30 years later, history will repeat itself, though not with the same set of teams.
Throughout the 2014-15 campaign, the East has been historically bad, and the result is going to be a set of squads that earn playoff berths but really don't deserve to play more than 82 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks will be one, despite the best efforts of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brandon Knight and the rest of this young roster. Losing Jabari Parker for the season with a torn ACL hasn't hurt them quite yet, as evidenced by their 17-16 record, but a regression is coming. After all, they're only a few games above the 40-win pace.
In this scenario, they're really the only uncertainty. Though the last two playoff spots haven't yet been decided—they're currently occupied by the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat—none of the competitors are above .500, nor will they be at any point during the remainder of this season.
It may not be bold to claim the Bucks will fall off their pace and the rest of the East will continue being, well, East-like. But history begs to differ, given the glaring lack of seasons with three sub-40-win teams in the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons Make a Strong Playoff Push
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Fortunately for the Detroit Pistons, the sheer putridity of the Eastern Conference's bottom half has kept them alive in the playoff hunt during their awful start to the 2014-15 season. With only eight wins in their first 31 outings, they should have been eliminated from contention long ago, but they're not even a handful of games behind the Miami Heat, who currently sit at No. 8 and are free-falling.
Will the Pistons get all the way to that final postseason berth? Probably not, but they're at least going to make things interesting down the stretch, as releasing Josh Smith has done wonders for all involved.
Since Smith played his last game for Detroit on Dec. 21, the team has gone undefeated—beating the Indiana Pacers at home and then winning road contests against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic. That's not exactly a tough schedule, but it's undeniable progress for a squad that seemed so inept only two weeks ago.
Andre Drummond has been particularly impressive, averaging 17.7 points and 15.0 rebounds per contest since Smith departed and doing so while shooting a scorching 65.7 percent from the field. As Vincent Goodwill Jr. writes for The Detroit News, it definitely seems as though he's turning a disappointing season around:
"Drummond's 30-minute performance of 17 points, 22 rebounds and three blocked shots played a huge part in the Pistons recording their third straight double-digit win for the first time since the 2007-08 season, but one has to wonder whether after he started the season in an admitted funk, the light has come on for the precocious 21-year-old big man.
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With Drummond playing like this, so many more positive possibilities emerge. And now, a certain point guard is dreaming big.
"If you think about the way the East is shaped now, you win five in a row—six, seven—you have a chance to still get in the eighth spot," Brandon Jennings told MLive.com's Brendan Savage. "We're still in the beginning of the season.
San Antonio Spurs Finish 4th in Their Own Division
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Since Gregg Popovich coached his first full season in 1997-98, the San Antonio Spurs have literally never finished outside of the top two spots in their division. While piling up five championship rings, the team has finished at the top of the heap during 11 different seasons and trailed another team just six times.
It's an incredible run of dominance, but it's about to come to a screeching halt.
In fact, the Spurs aren't even going to finish third in the brutal Southwest Division, thanks to some declining play after a title-winning season and a never-ending litany of injuries. Whenever one player gets healthy, another goes down, and the shorthanded Spurs just haven't been able to keep up with the top teams in the NBA's toughest division.
Thus far, the Memphis Grizzlies have emerged at the top of the heap. One game behind them come both the Houston Rockets and the Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs complete the infamous Texas Triangle in the No. 4 spot, another 3.5 games shy of their counterparts in the Lone Star State.
At least they have a three-contest lead over the New Orleans Pelicans right now.
Finishing at No. 4 in one of the best divisions in NBA history is nothing to feel ashamed about. It's just a bit strange, given Popovich's history over the last 17 years.
Philadelphia 76ers Finish the Season with the Worst Offense of All Time
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There have been plenty of atrocious offenses throughout NBA history, but no one has ever been this bad at scoring points.
Seriously.
No one. Ever.
Thus far, the 76ers have scored just 92.7 points per 100 possessions, via Basketball-Reference.com. Not only is that the worst mark in the league, but there's a yawning void between them and the No. 29 Charlotte Hornets, who are putting up 101 points over the same span. That gap is nearly as large as the one between the former Bobcats and the Phoenix Suns, who sit at No. 6 in the offensive rating standings.
But in order to make a legitimate historical comparison, we have to compare to the league average. That way, the era effect is taken out of play. We can do that by looking at the Sixers' adjusted offensive efficiency (ORtng+), which you can find explained here.
Throughout all of NBA history, no team has been worse at scoring than the 2002-03 Denver Nuggets, whose 92.2 offensive rating—during a season in which the league average was just 103.6—led to an 89.0 ORtng+. But this year, the average mark is 106.2, and that means Philadelphia's ORtng+ is a disgusting 87.28.
This isn't just going to get better either. Over their last 10 games, the Sixers have actually scored only 91.2 points per 100 possessions, and there's no hope of any big turnaround.
With nearly 70 years of basketball history at our fingertips, it's hard to be the worst ever at something this significant. But Philadelphia is actually making it look pretty easy.
Mini Tanking at the Top of the West
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Even though they're currently out of the playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder will get there. The Phoenix Suns aren't a strong enough team to hold off the combined efforts of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook when both are healthy, and the roster composition around Anthony Davis is too poor for us to believe in the New Orleans Pelicans.
And that's terrifying for the top of the Western Conference.
It's hard to imagine there's ever been a stronger No. 8 seed in the NBA playoffs, as the Thunder are one of the best teams in the NBA when they're at full strength. They've been that way for years, and it's not as though they've lost too many key pieces.
Because of the strange circumstances, we're going to see something we really haven't seen before—mini tanking at the top of the West.
While the No. 1 seed is normally a highly coveted commodity, it's less valuable than the No. 2 spot if it means facing OKC in the first round. That's far too difficult an opponent for the opening set of games in the postseason, and it will inspire the top teams to do crazy things.
Will the Portland Trail Blazers rest Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge down the stretch? Sure, and they'll claim they're doing so in order to keep them fresh, though they're really just trying to ensure they don't win too many games. Ditto for the Golden State Warriors with Stephen Curry, as well as the Houston Rockets with Dwight Howard and James Harden.
Strange as it may seem, earning the No. 1 seed won't be the top prize in the West so long as the Thunder are situated in that final playoff spot.
Nikola Mirotic Wins Rookie of the Year
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Now that Jabari Parker, the early front-runner in the Rookie of the Year race, is lost for the season with a torn ACL, the competition is wide open. Andrew Wiggins may be the new presumed favorite, especially after putting up 27 points, nine rebounds, two assists and four steals to open 2015 against the Sacramento Kings, but he won't ultimately win the honor.
That's because Nikola Mirotic is going to take home the first-year crown.
The 23-year-old Montenegrin forward has averaged 8.0 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game throughout his initial NBA season, but he's gotten even better in recent weeks for the Chicago Bulls. During his last dozen outings, he's put up 9.6 points per contest and caught fire from the perimeter, knocking down 42.9 percent of his deep attempts.
Despite Tom Thibodeau's penchant for burying rookies on the bench, he's earned some trust and proved his gravelly voiced coach has been handing him minutes for a reason. Mirotic hasn't fared too well at small forward, but he's excelled when playing at the bigger forward spot, and that should be enough for him to continue receiving minutes and spelling the stars in front of him on the depth chart.
"Mirotic is brilliant, an efficient shooter capable of mixing it up inside with a majestic beard," USA Today's Adi Joseph writes while calling him the No. 1 contender behind Wiggins in the ROY race. "When any one of those veterans sits, he turns into an elite sixth man, and many voters will overlook time constraints in favor of his per-minute numbers. If only he could slide up to small forward more often, he'd have this."
Wiggins may be the favorite and will have the better career, but Mirotic should continue to improve and has the distinct advantage of playing for a contending team. That should be enough for him to squeeze out the award in a tight battle.
A 38-Year-Old Defensive Player of the Year
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Defensive Player of the Year is typically handed out to either a young stud who prevents points with fervent fury, or a savvy veteran who's still in his athletic prime. It's not an award for the elder statesmen of the league, though Tim Duncan could prove to be an exception in 2015.
In fact, only 11 times has it gone out to someone in their 30s: Dikembe Mutombo (at 34 years old, 31 and 30), Marcus Camby (32), Mark Eaton (32), Kevin Garnett (31), Ben Wallace (31 and 30), Hakeem Olajuwon (31 and 30) and Michael Cooper (30).
How incredible would it be for the 38-year-old Duncan to be added to that list, reaching the top of the defensive heap during the twilight of his career? He's been a supremely talented defender throughout his tenure with the San Antonio Spurs, but he's never received this type of recognition. And doing so now would be defying history, as there's never been a first-time winner older than Camby.
After the first trimester of the season, ESPN.com's Marc Stein had Duncan as the favorite for the award:
"Duncan remains one of the league's top five shot-blockers despite his advanced age and is surely playing more (at 32.1 minutes per game) than his coach wants to be using him during the regular season. But it must be hard for even Pop to resist when Duncan sits atop ESPN.com's shiny new DRPM table, which estimates a player's on-court impact defensively based on points allowed per 100 possessions.
...
Chicago's Joakim Noah, Memphis' Marc Gasol, Milwaukee's Larry Sanders, Oklahoma City's Serge Ibaka, Dallas' Tyson Chandler and the Los Angeles Clippers' DeAndre Jordan are six more big men who have undeniably made their presence felt defensively -- as has Sacramento's oft-chided DeMarcus Cousins when healthy -- but it has to be Duncan leading the DPOY race, on this scorecard, heading into Trimester 2.
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He'll be the leader coming out of the final trimester as well.
Anthony Davis Wins MVP, Despite Missing the Playoffs
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The New Orleans Pelicans aren't talented enough to make the playoffs, but that's not a reflection on Anthony Davis. If MVP voters see that, he'll be the runaway winner this year.
Typically, winning the league's premier individual award requires checking off three different boxes: statistical excellence, team success and the ever-important narrative.
The first part is easy for Davis, who's putting up historically excellent numbers, thriving in so many different areas and giving himself a chance at the best single-season player efficiency rating ever produced by a qualified NBA player. This is the cornerstone of his candidacy, as jaws hit the floor every time one of his box scores is finalized.
Of course, the narrative aspect is strong as well. He's the heir apparent to the "best player alive" title and seems to be charging toward that status despite only being 21 years old.
He's the future, but he's also the present.
It's team success that hurts him, though he's still had a remarkable impact on the Pelicans. According to my FATS projections (full explanation here), NOLA has played like a 44-win team when the unibrowed big man is leading the charge. But when he's on the bench, it becomes a 24-win team. That's a larger impact than any other leading MVP candidate is making, and that's a factual statement, not a hyperbolic one.
This is inevitably going to be an insanely fun race. As Bleacher Report's Howard Beck writes, "This is as competitive a race as I can recall in my 18 years covering the league."
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are legitimate candidates, though it's likely they cancel each other out for some voters and are both hurt by their injuries. James Harden, Stephen Curry and Davis have to be the favorites right now, but it's Davis who should ultimately take the title, supplanting Derrick Rose as the youngest MVP in NBA history.
Pau Gasol Earns the First MVP Vote of His Career
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Throughout all of NBA history, 250 different players have appeared on an MVP ballot. Forty-three are still active.
Pau Gasol is not one of them.
Crazy as that is, given his spectacular career and presence on so many great teams, it's true. And it's going to change in 2015, even though Gasol is 34 years old and was supposedly washed up during his final season with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Up to this point in his first go-round with the Chicago Bulls, the Spanish 7-footer is averaging 17.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.4 steals and 2.3 blocks per game with a 20.7 PER. Even more impressively, he's playing fantastic defense for Tom Thibodeau and making a huge two-way impact for the Bulls.
Among the 98 players who have faced at least four shots at the rim during the average contest, per NBA.com's SportVU data, only 16 have held the opposition to a lower percentage than Gasol (46.1 percent). That's even more notable when you realize Terrence Jones—who has only played in four games—is the lone player in the league getting more action right around the basket.
Is all of this going to lead to Gasol actually winning MVP? Of course not. Don't be silly.
But there are multiple spots on the ballot. All it takes is finding his way into the last spot on a single one, and the big man will achieve something he hasn't accomplished during his 13 previous seasons in the Association.
Golden State Warriors Win Title for First Time in 40 Years
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The last time the Golden State Warriors won an NBA title, Rick Barry (20), Butch Beard (16), Clifford Ray (12) and Jamaal Wilkes (12) were the four scorers in double digits for the close-out game of the Finals. They competed a sweep of the Washington Bullets, taking down the frontcourt duo of Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld.
That was back in 1975, exactly four decades ago.
Well, the drought ends in 2015.
Stephen Curry is a legitimate MVP candidate, while Klay Thompson and Draymond Green should both be considered strong contenders for Most Improved Player. This roster is incredibly deep and well balanced, and while the hot start to the 2014-15 campaign was a bit extreme, the Dubs have still been the best team in the league.
Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system (SRS), which is based on strength of schedule and margin of victory, concurs. Golden State has an 8.81 SRS, and no other team in the league is close to matching that mark. In fact, the Toronto Raptors (7.28), Portland Trail Blazers (6.71) and Dallas Mavericks (6.27) are the only three squads within three points of touching the league-best number.
With an offense that can explode at any point, Curry leading the charge and the league's best defense, the Warriors are the cream of the crop right now. That doesn't always lead to a title. In fact, of the No. 1 teams in SRS over the last 10 years, only the 2014 San Antonio Spurs, 2008 Boston Celtics, 2007 Spurs and 2005 Spurs have pulled off the feat of being the top dog in the regular season and then winning a championship.
But the Dubs will add to the list in 2015.
Atlanta Hawks Make Deepest Playoff Run Since the Bob Pettit Days
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The Atlanta Hawks are quite clearly here to stay as an Eastern Conference power, and they should get even better as the season progresses. After all, Al Horford is gaining steam and re-emerging as the star of the squad, winning Eastern Conference Player of the Week in late December and enjoying far more success now that he's further removed from his torn pectoral.
"They may even be able to win the East the way they are playing," an anonymous general manager recently told ESPN Insider Jeff Goodman. Granted, that's not a unanimous opinion by any stretch of the imagination.
"Can they win the East?" another anonymous executive asked Goodman before answering his own question. "Probably not, but they can be a factor in the league and get to the Eastern Conference semifinals. They have a nice young point guard, a shooter and one of the top front-line tandems in the league. But the key to their entire team is Horford."
Allow me to side with the first unnamed front-office member.
The Toronto Raptors are the better team right now. But the Hawks are built for sustained success in the playoffs when Horford is healthy, as they're a great defensive team (No. 7 in defensive rating) and have a clear-cut identity on the other side of the ball. When the playoffs usher in swallowed whistles and slowed-down play, Atlanta's offense—based on constant movement and loads of threes—isn't going to stagnate.
It shouldn't be surprising that two of the Hawks' four closest historical comparisons (per FATS) are squads that weren't top-two teams in the regular season but went on to win titles: the 57-win Dallas Mavericks in 2011 and the 47-win Houston Rockets in 1995.
Atlanta hasn't been to the penultimate round of the playoffs since Lou Hudson led it there in both 1969 and 1970, back when the Hawks were part of the Western Division. Prior to those seasons, the franchise was located in St. Louis, so the Atlanta iterations have literally never been to the Finals.
That changes this year, giving this franchise its first chance at a title since Bob Pettit and the St. Louis Hawks made it to the Finals in 1961. The team won't end a title drought that's lasted since taking down Bill Russell's Boston Celtics in 1958, but it'll get close.
Marc Gasol Joins the New York Knicks
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Enough about the 2014-15 season. After all, there's an offseason and the first trimester of the follow-up campaign also taking place during this new calendar year.
And in the summer of 2015, there won't be a bigger free-agent move than Marc Gasol falling prey to Phil Jackson's zen and joining the New York Knicks. He's the perfect fit for the triangle offense, capable of moving smartly and hitting cutters from all over the floor, and he'd be just the man to usher in a new era of Big Apple basketball alongside Carmelo Anthony.
This possibly has already been discussed ad nauseam, of course. Pau Gasol has even said his brother joining the Knicks is "possible," per ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley:
"It's a personal decision. I talked to my brother enough about Phil that he knows what he brings to the table. I don't know how much he's involved with the team, really. He's in an upstairs position, management position. He's not on the court every day, so it's something that [Marc] will consider when he gets to that point.
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The Knicks are aware this is a tough sell.
But they have Jose Calderon—one of Gasol's best friends thanks to their mutual time on the Spanish national team—on the roster and play in the easier Eastern Conference. They can offer a lot of money while hoping the potential New York endorsement deals trump the extra year and bigger season-to-season raises the Memphis Grizzlies can claim. Finally, they may be able to capitalize on the Grizz likely failing to advance to the NBA Finals yet again, indicating the current core has reached its ceiling on Beale Street.
Memphis may be the clear-cut favorite to re-sign Gasol this offseason, but a lot can change between now and then.
Nerlens Noel Is Biggest Name Traded in 2015
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Trade season for the rest of the 2014-15 season should be busy but lacking star power. The biggest name on the block (Rajon Rondo) was already dealt from the Boston Celtics to the Dallas Mavericks, and the rest of the players on the move will be lesser-known contributors like Wilson Chandler and possibly Isaiah Thomas.
The offseason won't feature many stars on the move either, though one incredibly intriguing young prospect will be switching teams. Nerlens Noel, who's currently averaging 7.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.4 blocks per game during his rookie season with the Philadelphia 76ers, isn't going to be long for the City of Brother Love.
Not because he's not talented. He is.
Not because he's too talented for the rebuilding Sixers, who thrive on early draft picks. He isn't, and they're finally going to start trying to compete night in and night out.
The issue is that Noel plays center, as does Joel Embiid, the more talented prospect who's sitting out this season. And on top of that, the best prospect in the 2015 NBA draft, Jahlil Okafor, plays the same position as both of them.
It's in Philadelphia's best interest to draft Okafor as a franchise centerpiece who can play alongside Embiid while trading Noel for a better fit and another top draft pick, which ESPN.com's Chad Ford indicates is a legitimate possibility. Stockpiling centers isn't the way to go when they can't all three play together, nor is settling for a lesser prospect with what will likely be the first pick of the draft.
Sacramento Kings Look Like a 2015-16 Playoff Team
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The Sacramento Kings were on the verge of competing for the playoffs before DeMarcus Cousins left the lineup with viral meningitis. While the big man missed time, they went just 2-8 and fired head coach Mike Malone, replacing him with retread Tyrone Corbin. With Cousins back in the lineup, they've been better once more, though they've admittedly struggled during the ensuing transition period.
Cousins suited up in the first 15 games of the season for the Kings, who went 9-6 and looked like a 39-win squad, according to FATS projections. Since he returned from his lengthy illness, Sacramento has admittedly lost a handful of games but still played like 34-win team, the difference largely stemming from everyone forgetting how to play defense under Corbin.
With a new coach, improvement from young pieces like Nik Stauskas and Ben McLemore, continuously burgeoning chemistry with Cousins and Rudy Gay, who should re-sign during the offseason, and a few new promising players coming to town during the offseason, this should be a team that competes for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.
Pegging a team as a competitor for the final playoff spot—not even as a lock—might seem less than bold. But the Kings have been dysfunctional for so long now, failing to make the playoffs since Brad Miller led the team there in 2005-06.
After a decade of futility, even being competitive is both noteworthy and cause for legitimate levels of excitement.
Washington Wizards Have NBA's Best Record During 1st Trimester of 2015-16
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Playing in the Eastern Conference certainly helps, but these Washington Wizards are just remarkably talented and have a bunch of young pieces who are only getting better.
In 2015-16, John Wall should be competing with Stephen Curry, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook for the right to be called the best point guard in basketball. Ditto for Bradley Beal and the shooting guard position, as the 21-year-old 2-guard has averaged 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists on 42.6 percent shooting from the field and a red-hot 45.6 percent from downtown since returning from injury.
Otto Porter has shown some promise as well during his sophomore campaign, and there are other young pieces waiting to make contributors of themselves. Plus, the team doesn't stand to lose any truly key rotation members unless Paul Pierce turns down his player option and either retires or joins a new squad.
Basically, take this current roster, imagine it fully healthy, think about the top players improving and then throw in some free agents and a first-round pick. Pretty potent, right?
The Wizards have already gone 13-5 since Beal returned to the starting lineup. Now, they're only going to keep getting more dangerous as Nene, who was also hurt, gains traction and comfort next to the shooting guard in the starting five.
Earning the best record during the first third of the season is typically achieved through a combination of luck and skill. The Golden State Warriors, for example, are a dominant team, but they also benefited from playing a remarkably easy schedule early in the year.
It's the Wizards' turn next year, though a tough draw when the schedule comes out could be problematic.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Jan. 2's games.
