Chiefs vs. Steelers: Complete Week 16 Preview for Pittsburgh
It's never a good idea to look ahead on the schedule in the NFL, and doing so would be a really bad idea for the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
The Steelers (9-5) can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Heinz Field (1 p.m. ET, CBS). If they win this game and beat the Cincinnati Bengals at home in Week 17, they'll win the AFC North and have a home playoff game.
While the season finale at Pittsburgh could decide the division, in many ways, Sunday's game against the Chiefs is more important for the Steelers. If they lose, they'll no longer be in control of their playoff fate. They'll almost certainly have to beat the Bengals next week to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they'll need other games to fall their way.
They probably shouldn't expect help from the Houston Texans (7-7), as the Texans will start Thad Lewis or Case Keenum at quarterback against the Baltimore Ravens (9-5). A more realistic chance for clemency would come Monday night when the Bengals (9-4-1) host the Denver Broncos (11-3).
If the Steelers lose Sunday, but either the Ravens or Bengals also lose, the Steelers again would be absolved of scoreboard watching, because they would just have to beat the Bengals next week to make the playoffs, according to NFL.com. They just wouldn't be guaranteed the AFC North title and might have to settle for the No. 6 seed.
If the Steelers lose Sunday and the Ravens and Bengals both win their Week 16 games, the Steelers would be dependent on what happens between the San Diego Chargers and Chiefs in Week 17, just like last year.
Do they really want to go through that again?
The Steelers haven't always made life easy for themselves this year. But if they win Sunday, they'll avoid a lot of hand-wringing.
Week 15 Recap
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The Steelers are guaranteed at least one small step forward this season, whether or not they make the playoffs. They clinched their first winning season since 2011 by defeating the Atlanta Falcons 27-20 last week at Atlanta. After two straight 8-8 seasons, the Steelers will finish no worse than 9-7 this season.
Ben Roethlisberger threw for 360 yards, the sixth time in the last seven games he's had at least 340 passing yards. However, the Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passing game this season, despite going up against Peyton Manning twice, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.
The ground figures to be the Steelers' best means of moving the football. Le'Veon Bell was held to 47 rushing yards at Atlanta after rushing for 484 yards in the previous three games. But he ran for two touchdowns, and the Chiefs rank 28th against the run. The Steelers have broken the 100-yard barrier in their five meetings this season against teams who currently rank in the bottom six against the run.
The Steelers took advantage of Julio Jones' absence last week and jumped out to a 13-0 lead on two field goals and William Gay's third pick-six of the season. They never led by fewer than six points after that and overcame their tendency to slip up against teams with losing records this season. They dropped the Falcons to 5-9 and improved to 3-2 against teams that currently have losing records.
The Steelers finished 2-2 against the NFC South, a division that won't produce a team with a winning record. The Falcons are just a game behind the first-place New Orleans Saints and still could win the division.
The Steelers have no more losing teams lurking on their schedule. They host the Chiefs (8-6) and Bengals (9-4-1). If they make the playoffs, the only way they'll face a team with a losing record is if they and the NFC South winner shock the football world and meet in the Super Bowl.
News and Notes
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Steelers Boast No. 1 Offense
Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley has a chance to show off the league's top-ranked offense when he goes up against his former team. Haley was the head coach of the Chiefs from 2009 to 2011, although he was fired when the team went 5-8 after 13 games in 2011. He led the Chiefs to a 10-6 record and the AFC West title in 2010.
Now, Haley runs an offense that produces 424.9 yards per game, the best in the NFL. The Steelers are second to the Indianapolis Colts in passing offense with 306.7 yards per game and 10th in rushing offense at 118.2 per game.
The last time they led the league in total offense was 1979, when they won their fourth Super Bowl. But they were second in defense that year. This year, they're 19th in yards allowed, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
Gay One Pick-Six From Record
Steelers cornerback William Gay has returned three interceptions for touchdowns this season. He's one away from tying the all-time NFL record, according to Pro Football Talk.
Ken Houston of the 1971 Oilers, Jim Kearney of the 1972 Chiefs and Eric Allen of the 1993 Philadelphia Eagles all share the record with four pick-sixes in a season.
Gay has returned his last four interceptions for touchdowns. The first came in a win over the Cleveland Browns last season.
Chiefs-Steelers Games Have Been Close Lately
Haley went 1-1 as a head coach against the Steelers.
A year after losing to the Steelers as the Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator in Super Bowl XLIII, Haley led the Chiefs to a 27-24 overtime win over the Steelers at Kansas City in 2009. The Steelers edged the Chiefs 13-9 at Kansas City in 2011 in the penultimate game before Haley was fired.
In 2012, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 16-13 in overtime at Pittsburgh. Two of the last three meetings between the teams have gone to overtime, and all three of those games have been decided by four points or fewer.
The Steelers lead the all-time series 19-10, including a wild-card playoff loss to Joe Montana and the Chiefs in 1993.
The Chiefs haven't won at Pittsburgh in four tries since 1986. The Steelers outgained the Chiefs 515-171 in that game, but the Chiefs scored touchdowns on a fumble recovery, a kickoff return and a blocked field-goal return to win 24-19. That loss at Three Rivers Stadium closed out a 6-10 season for the Steelers.
Steelers' Playoff Chances at 74 Percent
The Steelers have a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to MakeNFLPlayoffs.com.
The No. 5 seed is their most likely landing spot, according to the site, as they have a 25 percent chance of being the No. 5 seed. Curiously, their second-most likely seed is No. 3 at 18 percent. The only way that can happen is if the Steelers win their two remaining games and the Colts lose one of their last two. They finish against the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans.
If the Steelers go 1-1 in their last two games, their chances of making the playoffs are 97 percent, but those odds are vastly different depending on which of those games the Steelers win. If they beat the Chiefs Sunday, their chances are 100 percent. If they lose, it gets hairy.
Brown, Bell Among Pro Bowl Voting Leaders
Antonio Brown finished as the top wide receiver in Pro Bowl fan balloting that ended Monday, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Brown received 644,093 votes, eighth among all players. Teammate Le'Veon Bell was sixth with 702,782 votes and second behind the Cowboys' DeMarco Murray at running back.
Maurkice Pouncey, Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu and Lawrence Timmons also were among the top five at their respective positions.
Players and coaches vote this week, and the Pro Bowlers will be announced Tuesday on the NFL Network, according to NFL.com.
The Pro Bowl will take place Jan. 25 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, a week before Super Bowl XLIX is played on the same field.
Doctors Answer Mumps Questions
The NHL's mumps epidemic hit Pittsburgh when Penguins players Sidney Crosby and Beau Bennett came down with the illness, according to USA Today.
Even though Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said he wasn't aware of the outbreak in the NHL, two doctors came to the Steelers facility Wednesday to answer any questions the players had about the mumps, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Steelers Sign OL to Practice Squad
The New York Giants signed offensive lineman Adam Gettis from the Steelers practice squad, and the Steelers replaced Gettis with offensive lineman Ronald Patrick, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Patrick, a 23-year-old rookie from South Carolina, is 6'1" and 310 pounds, according to Steelers.com.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status (through Fri) |
| Marcus Gilbert | OT | Probable (ankle) |
| James Harrison | OLB | Probable (knee) |
| Mike Mitchell | S | Probable (groin) |
| Troy Polamalu | S | Doubtful (knee) |
| Maurkice Pouncey | C | Probable (ankle) |
| Matt Spaeth | TE | Questionable (elbow) |
| Ike Taylor | CB | Doubtful (shoulder, forearm) |
| Markus Wheaton | WR | Probable (illness) |
Outside Linebacker
James Harrison is good to go after missing the last two games. He'll try to add a spark to the Steelers pass rush against a team that's tied for 10th in the league with 39 sacks allowed. That's seven more than the Steelers.
Right Tackle
Marcus Gilbert has missed the last three games. It turned out he was a "healthy scratch" last week against the Falcons, as noted by Steel City Insider. Mike Adams has played in Gilbert's place and ranks 69th out of 70 among the league's tackles in the last three games, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Safety
It looks like Will Allen will start in place of Troy Polamalu.
Allen, 32, is the Steelers' only backup safety who has played a significant number of snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Robert Golden has played nine defensive snaps.
Mike Mitchell had a breakout game as a Steeler in Atlanta. He made at least two touchdown-saving tackles. The Steelers need more of that Sunday.
Steelers.com was used for injury report information.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Antonio Brown vs. Sean Smith
Another week, another record for Antonio Brown.
Brown caught 10 passes for 123 yards in Sunday's win at Atlanta, becoming the first player in NFL history to catch at least eight passes in eight straight games, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Steelers' sixth-round draft pick in 2010, Brown has 115 receptions this season, a franchise record. Hines Ward previously held the record with 112 catches in 2002. Brown is nine catches away from second place on the NFL's all-time list. Herman Moore (1995, Detroit Lions) and Wes Welker (2009, New England Patriots) are tied with 123 catches. Marvin Harrison (Indianapolis Colts, 2002) holds the record with 143 in one season.
Brown also is one yard away from the single-season franchise record of 1,499 receiving yards that he set last season.
Sean Smith will be the latest cornerback to take a whack at stopping Brown. He's sixth in the NFL with 16 passes defended, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
The 6'3" Smith has rare height for a cornerback, and he's five inches taller than Brown. He gave up four receptions on eight targets while covering Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas in Week 13, according to Pro Football Focus. Thomas, who is second behind Brown in the NFL with 96 receptions, scored a touchdown on Smith in the Broncos' 29-16 win.
Kansas City is second in the NFL with 199.2 passing yards allowed per game and hasn't yielded a 300-yard passing game this season, but the Chiefs have the fewest interceptions in the league with four.
Lawrence Timmons vs. Jamaal Charles
Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, a three-time Pro Bowler, has fought through injuries this season and probably will fall short of the numbers he put up in 2012 and 2013.
Charles has run for 950 yards, but he's averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has five touchdowns. He's seventh in the league in rushing yards. Arian Foster is one spot ahead of Charles, and he ran for 102 yards on 20 carries at Heinz Field in Week 7.
Mark Ingram of the Saints, 12th in the league with 869 rushing yards, rang up 122 yards the last time the Steelers played at Heinz Field.
The Steelers are allowing 103.6 rushing yards per game, 11th in the league. Timmons is the NFL's fourth-best run-stopping inside linebacker, according to PFF. He leads the Steelers with 109 tackles. Safety Mike Mitchell is second with 64.
Marcus Gilbert vs. Justin Houston
The Steelers better hope Marcus Gilbert is ready to go Sunday. He's a better pass-blocker than Mike Adams, and the NFL's co-leader in sacks is coming to town.
Justin Houston, who lines up at left outside linebacker for the Chiefs, is tied with the Ravens' Elvis Dumervil with 17 sacks. In most cases, the Steelers right tackle will be assigned to block Houston.
Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked just twice in the last three games, but Adams has been responsible for both of those sacks playing in place of Gilbert, according to PFF.
Gilbert has given up six sacks this season, but four of them came in the first two games. Dumervil dominated him for two sacks in Week 2 at Baltimore and beat him for one more in Week 9 at Pittsburgh.
It's up to Gilbert and the rest of the Steelers offensive line to prevent history from repeating itself. Pittsburgh last played the Chiefs in 2012. Roethlisberger suffered a shoulder injury when Houston and teammate Tamba Hali sacked him. He missed the next three games, and his team eventually missed the playoffs.
Hali is still around, and he's second on the team with six sacks.
Roethlisberger has been sacked 32 times this season. At this pace, he'll be sacked fewer than 40 times for just the third time in the last nine years.
William Gay vs. Travis Kelce
No Chiefs wide receiver has caught a touchdown pass this season.
The tight ends shoulder that load in Kansas City, and the Steelers have had difficulty covering tight ends this season.
Travis Kelce shares the team lead with Jamaal Charles with five touchdown catches, and Kelce leads the Chiefs with 56 receptions.
Fellow tight end Anthony Fasano has four TD catches.
The Steelers have allowed 10 passing touchdowns to tight ends, tied for fifth in the league, according to RotoGrinders. Sunday's win at Atlanta was the first time in seven games that they didn't allow a tight end touchdown, but the Falcons' top tight end is Levine Toilolo, who is 146th in the league with 25 catches.
Several Steelers defenders have chipped in trying to cover tight ends this season. Gay is the Steelers' top pass defender, per PFF. He gave up Jermaine Gresham's 10-yard touchdown catch at Cincinnati and Ben Watson's 15-yard touchdown at home against the Saints in Week 13. Don't be surprised if Alex Smith looks for No. 22 on Kelce.
Steelers X-Factor to Watch: Martavis Bryant
The Chiefs lead the NFL in red-zone defense. They've allowed touchdowns less than 37 percent of the time on their opponent's trips inside the red zone, according to TeamRankings.com.
The Steelers are 14th in the league with touchdowns on 55.1 percent of their red-zone opportunities. That rate jumps to 72.7 percent in the last three games.
Martavis Bryant showed his deep-ball prowess with a 94-yard touchdown in Cincinnati, but four of his seven touchdowns have come in the red zone. Roethlisberger, who for years lobbied for a tall wide receiver, will look for the 6'4" rookie when the Steelers get inside the Chiefs 20. He could be dangerous on fade routes in the end zone if 6'3" Sean Smith isn't covering him.
Prediction
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Just like in 2005, the Steelers went into their final four games knowing they would make the playoffs if they won them all. They've won two of them, and the remaining two are at home.
Could the Steelers actually do this?
Let's not kid ourselves. These aren't the 2005 Steelers, but they don't have to be to beat the Chiefs Sunday and the Bengals on Dec. 28.
The last time the Steelers stepped on the Heinz Field grass, they were manhandled by the Saints, losing by a euphemistic 35-32 final score. So a win at Heinz Field is not a given for the Steelers.
It seemed the Steelers' woes were behind them when they won three in a row at home and improved to 6-3 in the middle of the season. Then they were humbled by the New York Jets.
So, are two road wins in a row enough to convince anyone that the Steelers are ready to punch their playoff ticket? Can the Steelers be trusted to avoid one more clunker?
The Chiefs face similar questions. They were once 7-3 and fresh off a 24-20 win over the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks. Then they dropped three straight, including a loss to the then-0-10 Oakland Raiders. They ended their skid with a 31-13 home win over the Raiders on Sunday. But that proves little.
This game will come down to whichever team does a better job controlling the game on the ground. Jamaal Charles needs 50 more yards to reach 1,000 for the third straight year and five out of the last six. Le'Veon Bell looked up to Charles last year, but not this year. He has a chance to add to his 1,278 rushing yards against a team that allowed at least 100 yards on the ground in six straight games before last week.
The Chiefs peaked too early this season. The Steelers, until they prove otherwise, are peaking at the right time. Maybe the other shoe finally will drop next week when the Bengals come to town. By then, it won't hurt as much, because the Steelers already will have a playoff spot secured.
Prediction: Steelers 22, Chiefs 15
NFL.com was used for statistics unless otherwise noted.
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