Best Potential 2015 Free-Agent Targets for Miami Heat to Pursue
The Miami Heat have the summer of 2016 circled on their calendar.
That offseason, a who’s who of the sport’s biggest stars could be available, and with South Beach still a well-established destination for premier hoops talent, the organization could be poised to build another Big Three and jump-start a new era of perennial contention.
Kevin Durant—who may well be the best player in the NBA at that point—could be available. As could Chris Paul, the game’s best point guard. And Dwight Howard, its best center.
It doesn’t stop there. Consolation prizes Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, Lance Stephenson, Mike Conley, Nicolas Batum, Brook Lopez, Chandler Parsons and others might also be looking for new homes that summer. Even LeBron James and Kevin Love, though they’re the longest of long shots to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers, will technically be available.
In short, the league’s balance of power could undergo a seismic shift. And Miami is already planning to tilt the board in its favor.
“Pat Riley has put everything into 2016,” Heat columnist Ira Winderman told WQAM last week (via CBS Sports). “His 2016 is like his 2010. He’s going to sit back, deal with the results and go for the big splash.”
If this is Miami’s plan—and all indications are it is—it’s a fine one. Superstars win in the NBA. That’s a rule of championship physics as consistent as gravity. But it’s possible, surveying the 2015 class, the Heat could speed up that time frame.
Not only does the group of players that is available this offseason include some enticing names, but there might be a strategic advantage to Miami adding a player or two this summer before pouncing again the following year.
Superstar players tend to consider winning above all else when planning their next move. In this way, by adding a meaningful contributor or contributors this summer, the Heat could bolster their pitch to, say, Kevin Durant. If you’re trying to convince a player your team could win a title if only he were on the roster, other things being equal, it’s easier to do it with a 47-win roster than a 40-win group.
There’s also the matter of the sheer quality of the class. While it’s not quite a match for 2016 as a matter of star power or depth, there are a smattering of All-Stars and a significant number of credible difference-makers.
What follows are a few of the players Miami would be smart to kick the tires on this summer.
Rajon Rondo: PG
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Between injuries and a renewed debate about the merits of his playing style—excessive reluctance to find his own shot—Rajon Rondo has seen his stock take a hit in recent seasons. The concerns aren’t completely ill-founded, but Rondo is still arguably a franchise-level point guard.
While the unrestricted free-agent-to-be been struggling with his shot of late—his true shooting percentage, per Basketball-Reference.com, is a meager 46.1 and 41 the last two partial seasons—he’s still one of the most creative and effective distributors in the NBA. So far in 2014-15, he leads the league in assists with 10.8 a night.
Even within the context of the cool logic of advanced stats, Rondo is a polarizing figure. While win shares and player efficiency rating place him as a solidly above-average player, wins produced views him as a star.
According to BoxScore Geeks, Rondo has .218 wins produced per 48 minutes thus far in 2014-15—better than twice the league average. For his career, the 28-year-old has offered .220 wins produced per 48 minutes.
Rondo is also a player who, in the Boston Celtics’ deep playoff runs, has succeeded wildly at the sport’s highest level. As recently as 2011-12, Rondo posted a postseason line of 17.3 points, 11.9 assists and 6.7 rebounds in 19 games. For a Miami franchise with a title-or-bust mentality, this is a pretty attractive characteristic.
Jimmy Butler: SG
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The cream of the crop at this position—should Dwyane Wade exercise his player option to return to Miami, which seems likely—is the Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler.
The unrestricted free agent could be pricey to lure, but it’s a risk that might be palatable to the Heat given the 25-year-old's range of skills.
Simply, there isn’t much Butler doesn’t do well. He’s a tremendous rebounder (across his career he pulls down 6.8 rebounds per 48 minutes to the average 2’s 5.4), an efficient shooter (his 59.7 true shooting percentage in 2014-15 is more than six percentage points above average) and an excellent defender who fastidiously avoids fouls and turnovers.
He’s also in the midst of a breakout season. He’s averaging a career-high 21 points a game in 2014-15 to go along with 5.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists.
Stats junkies are enamored of this guy. According to Basketball-Reference.com and BoxScore Geeks, he’s leading an excellent Bulls team in win shares and wins produced by enormous margins.
Butler is a star in the making—arguably a star who’s already been made—who’s going to get paid this offseason. The Heat should consider becoming the one who pays him.
Butler, alas, seems unlikely to leave Chicago. Though he turned down a four-year, $40 million extension before the season, the guard told the Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley that he had no plans to leave the Windy City.
“People say I’m chasing money when that’s not it—yeah, get your mic closer—that’s not it, because I’m going to be in Chicago,” the rising star said.
And if the Bulls' offer is any indication, they’re unlikely to let him leave either. File this one under “improbable.”
Kawhi Leonard: SF
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Let’s start with the obvious: Kawhi Leonard is great.
Let’s move to the less obvious: He could get much better.
The 23-year-old restricted free-agent-to-be—he of the NBA Finals exploits and upper body that looks like it came out of a basketball laboratory—is already arguably the best player on what’s been, over the last decade or so, the best team in the NBA.
According to BoxScore Geeks, Leonard has led the San Antonio Spurs in wins produced in two of the last three full seasons and, via Basketball-Reference.com, paced the 2013-14 NBA champs in win shares.
And this season he might be better than ever. In 2014-15, Leonard is averaging 15 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.1 steals a night, all career highs.
The secret of his success isn’t much of a secret. The San Diego State product is excellent at darn near everything.
He’s a very efficient shooter (his career true shooting percentage is a gaudy 58.5) who bests positional averages per 48 minutes in rebounds (11.3 to 7.9), blocks (1.2 to 0.8) and steals (3.0 to 1.6) by enormous margins.
It would, however, be exceedingly difficult to get Kawhi. That is to say expensive.
After he and the Spurs failed to come to terms on a contract extension before the season, his agent, Brian Elfus, told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski that he was looking for a max extension for his client.
“We feel Kawhi is deserving of a max contract, and we are disappointed that something couldn’t get done,” the representative said.
Even if the Heat decided to hand Leonard a max extension, it seems unlikely the Spurs would simply let him walk. According to Wojnarowski, multiple league executives told him Leonard would command several max offers in this market, but he opined that the Spurs would likely match and retain their star.
LaMarcus Aldridge: PF
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LaMarcus Aldridge is a peculiar talent.
He’s capable of taking over games—dominating, really, at the game's highest level—but he’s also a flawed player who’s found modest team success only after his organization built a very good roster around him.
The problem with Aldridge is his efficiency. He is enamored of the mid-range game and so takes a large percentage of his shots from that territory.
According to Basketball-Refernece.com, over 77 percent of Aldridge’s attempts this season have come between three feet of the basket and the three-point line. These figures are right in line with his career averages and explain, in part, why someone as big and talented as the power forward has only managed a career true shooting percentage of 53.1—and marks of 50.7 and 51.3 the last two seasons.
The Heat may well have interest in the 29-year-old—it’s rare that people with his ability and resume hit the open market—but they’d be wise to pass on him. One mid-range-enamored big at a time, Pat Riley.
Marc Gasol: C
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He’s not just Pau’s little brother anymore.
In the last couple seasons, Marc Gasol has established himself as one of the—if he isn't already—premier big men in the NBA. You know, why beat around the bush? I’ll out and say it: Marc Gasol is the best big man in the NBA.
Take it from CBSSports.com’s Zach Harper, who wrote a piece on Dec. 4 called “Marc Gasol is the best big man in basketball:”
"Gasol's career-high of 19.4 points per game is the most notable part of his game this season. He's had a slight increase in shot attempts (12.1 per game to 13.6) and he's getting to the free throw line a lot more (free throw rate of 33.9 percent increased to 49.2 percent). And while his rebounding doesn't blow you away (8.0 per game), that aspect of his game coupled with the scoring and his passing put him in a rarified air this season.
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Gasol has also carried the Memphis Grizzlies to the second-best record in the sport behind the red-hot Golden State Warriors.
Gasol is an especially good fit in the Miami offense. The Heat’s success is still, to a large extent, predicated on cat-quick ball movement. As arguably the best passing big in the NBA, the junior member of the Gasol clan would plug in right away in Erik Spoelstra’s scheme.
It’ll be difficult to land him though. Gasol has expressed a preference to stay in Memphis—he told The (Memphis) Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery the city is his “home away from home”—and the Grizzlies themselves are unlikely to overlook the center’s enormous value. Former ESPN analytics writer and smart person John Hollinger is the franchise’s vice president of basketball operations.
That said, Gasol and any of the aforementioned potential free agents are worth kicking the tires on. Miami has eyed 2016 as the summer the franchise returns to its rightful place atop the league’s hierarchy. Why wait?
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