Updated Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team at Quarter-Season Mark
The first quarter of the NBA season has not disappointed, but it's left us with more questions than answers.
Will the New York Knicks figure things out under Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher? Can LeBron James steer the Cleveland Cavaliers into the top spot in the Eastern Conference, or is that asking for too much, too soon? Are the Milwaukee Bucks for real?
And that's just in the East. There's even more going on in the ever-competitive West.
Can Anthony Davis carry his New Orleans Pelicans into the postseason and take that third-year leap? Will Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant dig the Oklahoma City Thunder out of their early-season hole? Is the Golden State Warriors' success sustainable?
Don't worry.
We've got all the answers.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Dec. 10's games.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: 6-76
1 of 30
Current Record: 2-18
Current Pace: 8-74
Kudos to the Philadelphia 76ers for winning a pair of contests against the bottom-feeding Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons. It's a nice story, as this team now at least avoids one ignominious distinction by getting off the schneid before losing 18 games in a row to start the 2014-15 campaign.
But while Philly has been playing its opponents closer in recent outings, it's not as though this team is going to avoid putting together the worst win-loss record in the history of the NBA. After all, it's been one of the very worst squads in league history thus far, even with the two victorious games.
The Sixers have a league-worst 93.9 offensive rating, a mark that's 5.6 points per 100 possessions behind the Pistons and the rest of the Association. It's actually been a middling defensive squad, currently slotted at No. 16 in defensive rating, but the offense is just so bad that it allows for Philadelphia to make some history.
Thus far, the 76ers have a TeamRtng+ of 94.21 (ORtng+ of 88.42 and DRtng+ of 100). Only the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats (92.88 TeamRtng+), 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks (93.14) and 1997-98 Denver Nuggets (93.98) have ever been worse, and none of those squads played as poorly on one side of the ball as Philly does offense.
14. Detroit Pistons: 17-65
2 of 30
Current Record: 3-19
Current Pace: 11-71
The Detroit Pistons should rebound slightly as the team gains comfort under the teachings of Stan Van Gundy and Andre Drummond continues to show resiliency after a rough start to the season. But it's already too little, too late for a team that has won just three of its first 22 games.
Much like the Milwaukee Bucks in 2013-14, Detroit went into the season hoping to compete for one of the final playoff spots and seemingly had enough talent to do so. Problem is the talent doesn't fit together, and injuries to key pieces like Jodie Meeks haven't exactly helped.
Only the Philadelphia 76ers have been more unable to score than these Pistons, who have produced a putrid 99.5 points per 100 possessions. Nobody has been able to connect on his attempts from any area of the court, and an inability to get to the charity stripe and convert is only making matters worse.
Currently on pace to win just under a dozen games, the Pistons will exceed that total. Van Gundy is too good a coach to let this team flounder away without making a few adjustments. But it's already abundantly clear that a playoff run isn't in the cards for this organization, even with the Eastern Conference making that more of a possibility.
13. New York Knicks: 22-60
3 of 30
Current Record: 4-19
Current Pace: 14-68
"Right now we have a loser's mentality because we're not finishing games," Phil Jackson recently told reporters.
He's not wrong.
The Knicks have played competitive basketball in almost every one of their recent games, which offers hope for a turnaround in the near future. However, they've been absolutely terrible in clutch situations, defined by NBA.com as the last five minutes of games that feature a five-point margin or less.
Thanks to terrible offensive and defensive play, the Knicks are being outscored by 34.1 points per 100 possessions in those situations, a mark that's absolutely embarrassing and better than only that produced by the young New Orleans Pelicans. There's just no confidence, and it's not as though Derek Fisher is drawing up brilliant plays to remedy the issues during his first season as a head coach.
New York has talented players on the roster. That alone offers hope that the Knicks will outdo their 14-win pace.
But even if they do it won't be by enough to make the postseason or even come somewhat close.
12. Indiana Pacers: 28-54
4 of 30
Current Record: 7-14
Current Pace: 27-55
This wasn't hard to see coming.
The Indiana Pacers struggled enough offensively during the 2013-14 season, even though they won the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. After losing Lance Stephenson to the Charlotte Hornets and Paul George to a devastating leg fracture, there just wasn't much hope of scoring the ball.
Through 21 games, the Pacers have put up only 100.4 points per 100 possessions, a mark that beats just the Detroit Pistons and Philadelphia 76ers. They have one of the league's worst effective field-goal percentages, turn the ball over more than the average squad and get to the charity stripe more often than only the New York Knicks.
At least they're a solid set of offensive rebounders?
David West is actually Indiana's leading scorer, and he's producing just 13.2 points per game. The Pacers are taking the "scoring by committee" approach to an extreme, and it hasn't exactly given them the best results.
George Hill's eventual return will help this team out, but it's still an ultimately flawed and overmatched one without a certain Team USA roster member on the court.
11. Orlando Magic: 33-49
5 of 30
Current Record: 9-14
Current Pace: 32-50
The Orlando Magic are more competitive than some might have expected, and it's not a fluke. This is a legitimately decent team with a number of young players who can make some noise on any given night.
Nikola Vucevic, averaging 18.6 points and 11.7 rebounds per game with a 20.2 player efficiency rating, has become a standout center capable of serving as a go-to offensive option and at least holding his own on the defensive end of the court. But it's not as though he's the only quality player.
Tobias Harris is continuing to improve. And Evan Fournier has been a steal, while Victor Oladipo has made some significant strides during his sophomore season. And while he's clearly a while away from being a top-notch point guard, Elfrid Payton has at least shown Jacque Vaughn and the rest of the Orlando coaching staff some flashes of brilliance.
It's not too soon to whisper about the possibility of a playoff berth for this young set of up-and-comers. That's an unlikely result, even while playing in the NBA's weaker half, but the Magic are the first team to appear here with a legitimate shot at sneaking in as the No. 8 seed.
"Wow, the Magic finally are getting a little more serious about this winning stuff. Here they are, 23 games into the season, and we haven't begun the official countdown to the draft lottery," Brian Schmitz writes for the Orlando Sentinel (subscription required). "On the contrary, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls: The league hasn't knocked the Magic out of the playoff race yet."
It'll happen soon enough, but let's give a rebuilding organization some credit for doing a fine job thus far.
10. Charlotte Hornets: 34-48
6 of 30
Current Record: 5-15
Current Pace: 21-61
There's a lot wrong with the Charlotte Hornets, who might ultimately need to make a trade in order to regain the buzz that encircled this franchise heading into the season. Lance Stephenson has been a horrific fit in Steve Clifford's offense, the defense has regressed dramatically and there's not much confidence being displayed by this group of playoff hopefuls.
Nonetheless, it's too soon to give up on them.
The Hornets may only have won five of their first 20 games, but there's still plenty of time left for them to regain their identity.
Stephenson will end up shooting better than 38.5 percent from the field and 16.7 percent from beyond the arc, maybe even forming the ideal backcourt with Kemba Walker that the front office envisioned this offseason. The defense will certainly improve, as it didn't lose enough pieces to go from being a top-six unit to the team with the seventh-worst defensive rating in just one summer.
Charlotte may have doomed itself in the playoff race with this awful start, but expecting it to play out the season without improvement is still foolish.
9. Brooklyn Nets: 35-47
7 of 30
Current Record: 8-11
Current Pace: 35-47
Nothing about the Brooklyn Nets indicates that they'll be all that competitive during the remaining portion of the 2014-15 season. Well, that's not quite true.
Many players on the roster enjoy some name recognition. Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez can inspire confidence on paper, even if the results haven't been too fruitful once games are actually played. The payroll falls into the same category, as there's no way a team with this high a combined salary can flounder away forever.
Except it can. The Nets are proving it by looking lackluster—at best—on both sides of the ball.
Through 19 games—and based on Pythagorean projections, the Nets have stolen an extra win and should really be 7-12—Brooklyn is ranked No. 15 in defensive rating, struggling immensely to avoid allowing second-chance points because of its uninspired defensive rebounding. The Nets are even worse offensively.
Despite the name recognition so many starters enjoy, they've combined to score only 102.8 points per 100 possessions. Just seven teams have been worse.
Even in the Eastern Conference, finishing No. 16 and No. 23 in defensive and offensive rating respectively is not a playoff recipe. In fact, it's a recipe for making your players available to the highest bidders, per ESPN's Marc Stein.
8. Boston Celtics: 37-45
8 of 30
Current Record: 7-12
Current Pace: 30-52
The Boston Celtics may only be 7-12, but they've lost their games by few enough points that their margin of defeat is only 1.68 points. That, combined with one of the league's tougher schedules, means they've been more impressive than their record would indicate.
Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system (SRS), which gives a one-number rating for each team based on margin of victory and strength of schedule, scores Boston at minus-0.45. That's not a great number, but it's the No. 16 mark in the league and the No. 6 score in the Eastern Conference.
Will the C's live up to their SRS and make the playoffs? Probably so, especially if Rajon Rondo remembers how to score the ball and shoot free throws. There's enough talent on this squad, and, thanks to geography, underperforming during the opening salvo isn't bound to bite Boston down the road.
Plus, Jared Sullinger, Jeff Green and Kelly Olynyk have looked vastly improved. Even if the Celtics can't sneak into the postseason, the future is at least looking brighter for this rebuilding organization.
Oh, and the SRS of the other fringe playoff competitors? The Brooklyn Nets, who the C's are barely beating out in these projections, are at minus-4.12 and all the way back at No. 23 in the league-wide rankings. The Charlotte Hornets are three spots lower with a minus-5.65 SRS.
Even if a playoff berth is due more to a dearth of competitive teams than anything else, the Celtics will presumably take what they can get.
7. Miami Heat: 38-44
9 of 30
Current Record: 10-11
Current Pace: 39-43
It's hard to get excited about these Miami Heat, especially while they sit at No. 16 in offensive rating and No. 26 in defensive rating.
The defending champions of the Eastern Conference started off the season in strong fashion, but they've been brought back down to earth in recent weeks. The defense has been particularly porous, with few players able to protect the rim or stop nosebleeds out on the perimeter. Opponents are converting with a 53.7 effective field-goal percentage thus far, and that's better than only two teams throughout the Association.
Chris Bosh has done a solid job filling in as an alpha dog, and Dwyane Wade, when healthy, has left little doubt that he can still play like an elite player. But beyond the two remaining members of last year's Big Three, where is the quality production coming from?
Mario Chalmers and Luol Deng have both been solid, but neither has been special for Miami. Beyond those two, Shawne Williams (13.8) and James Ennis (13.4) are the only players with PERs on the right side of 12.
There's just no depth, a struggle to find an identity and a whole lot of wear and tear on the tires of the key players. Twenty-one games into the season, the Heat are still by no means a playoff lock or anything close to it.
6. Milwaukee Bucks: 39-43
10 of 30
Current Record: 11-12
Current Pace: 39-43
Excluding lockout seasons, it's been a long time since the same conference has sent three teams with fewer than 40 wins to the playoffs. In fact, it's only been done once (1985-86) since the 39-42 St. Louis Hawks, 36-45 Los Angeles Lakers and 33-48 Chicago Bulls advanced out of the Western Division in 1966-67. Admittedly, four of the five teams in that half of the NBA made the postseason, so it's not really a fair comparison.
Could this year be the one that changes history?
The Milwaukee Bucks have a serious chance to win 40 or more games, especially after splitting their first 22. This is a team with a lot of talent on the roster, an unquestioned defensive identity and so much youth that it might only get better throughout the rest of the season.
There's just one issue.
While Milwaukee should already have removed doubt that it isn't a legitimate playoff contender, it has played an easy schedule. In fact, only the Golden State Warriors have been handed an easier slate of opponents thus far, and that makes it tough to imagine the Bucks keeping up that .500 pace they enjoyed before falling to the resurgent Oklahoma City Thunder.
Still, they shouldn't have to in order to earn a playoff berth.
5. Atlanta Hawks: 46-36
11 of 30
Current Record: 14-6
Current Pace: 57-25
The Atlanta Hawks are a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference, but they've been providing quite the illusion during their recent games. Thanks to a seven-game stretch of unbeaten play, they're now in the thick of the race for the No. 1 seed.
Pretty impressive? Sure, except the schedule is bound to get more difficult. Those seven victories have come against the New Orleans Pelicans, Charlotte Hornets, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers, none of whom resemble anything even close to true contenders.
Jeff Teague is legitimately turning into a top-notch point guard. Kyle Korver is a shooting god. Paul Millsap and Al Horford form one of the best frontcourt duos in the NBA. There's plenty of depth, and the team has taken rather nicely to Mike Budenholzer's pass- and three-happy offensive schemes.
But the Hawks are still capitalizing on an easy schedule, and they aren't going to be able to maintain that 57-win pace once the tougher opponents start showing up. Atlanta should already be considered a playoff lock—a step ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks and all the other teams that have already shown up in this portion of the record countdown—but it's still a class below the remaining teams in the East.
4. Chicago Bulls: 54-28
12 of 30
Current Record: 12-8
Current Pace: 49-33
The best news of all for the Chicago Bulls, better even than the development of Jimmy Butler into a star player, has been the performance on the road. Chicago is an impressive 10-3 when playing outside the friendly confines of the United Center, and that mark comes despite a seven-game road trip comprising over a third of its games played.
But all the same, there are still some questions here. And as you might expect, they have to do with health.
How long can Joakim Noah play at a high level when his knees are so clearly giving him some issues? What can the Bulls count on from Derrick Rose, who has played at a decent level but only suited up in a dozen games? Can Pau Gasol last an entire season when he's asked to take on so much two-way responsibility?
In many ways, Chicago will be best off just biding its time. Earning the No. 1 seed isn't a necessary goal, especially if it keeps everyone healthy and raring to go for the playoffs. At full strength, this is still a terrifying team, even if it has to play one extra postseason game on the road.
After all, the Bulls have already proved themselves road warriors.
3. Washington Wizards: 55-27
13 of 30
Current Record: 14-6
Current Pace: 57-25
John Wall is an absolute stud at point guard.
Fresh off an inspired 26-point, 17-assist outing in a double-overtime victory against the Boston Celtics, the 24-year-old is averaging 18.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 10.4 dimes per game. He's also playing impressive defense, showing plenty of leadership skills and putting up a 20.6 PER, one that should help validate last year's All-Star selection.
So long as Wall is healthy, the Wizards are going to be one of the more competitive teams in the league. And they should only get more dangerous as Bradley Beal continues gaining his sea legs.
But, you might be asking, why are the Wizards going to fall off their 57-win pace by two victories if they're still incorporating Beal into the lineup and have already dealt with so many injuries? Well, it's largely because the team has played an easy schedule thus far and has a margin of victory that indicates it should've won only 13 of its first 20 contests, not 14.
This early in the year, one extra win can make a big difference. After all, a 13-7 record would put Washington on pace to go 53-29, and then it would seem like the 55-win projection would have it improving, not regressing.
2. Toronto Raptors: 57-25
14 of 30
Current Record: 16-6
Current Pace: 60-22
Kyle Lowry deserves to have his name bandied about as an MVP candidate during the early portion of the season. Eliminating all worries of post-contract-year woes, the 28-year-old point guard has averaged 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game with a 23.4 PER.
But it's not Lowry who's cause for concern. Instead, that would be DeMar DeRozan, who is out indefinitely with a torn left adductor longus tendon that he suffered on Nov. 28 against the Dallas Mavericks.
Since he's been out of the lineup, the Raptors have gone 3-2, but they've already taken a noticeable step backward on the defensive end of the court.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, Toronto had a 115.3 offensive rating and 103.9 defensive rating before DeRozan's injury, even though he was struggling to live up to the All-Star expectations. Since he's ceded minutes to Greivis Vasquez and the rest of the lineup, those numbers have changed to 119.4 and 118.2, respectively.
There's still no telling when he'll return, but it seems certain this is going to be a prolonged absence. And as long as he's wearing street clothes, Toronto is going to have a tough time continuing to look like the best team in the conference.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 58-24
15 of 30
Current Record: 13-7
Current Pace: 53-29
Here come the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Since getting off to a rocky start—which, again, should not have surprised anyone given what we know about NBA history—the Cavs have rebounded nicely. They've now won eight games in a row, including victories over the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors (at home and on the road), and during that stretch they've produced offensive and defensive ratings of 118.4 and 102.2, respectively.
Just to put that in perspective, scoring 118.4 points per 100 possessions would lead the league. Allowing just 102.2 would leave Cleveland tied with the Washington Wizards for the No. 5 mark in the Association. Talk about two-way dominance.
Though LeBron James still hasn't been quite up to snuff, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are rounding into form, and the team as a whole is figuring it out. On the season, Cleveland now ranks No. 4 in offensive rating and No. 13 in defensive rating, alleviating any and all concerns that it would never figure things out on the less glamorous end.
But if the Cavs truly want to dominate, perhaps they just always need to play in front of royalty. They proved as much on Monday night against the Brooklyn Nets.
"The Cavaliers were at their most dynamic in front of Prince William and Princess Kate, who took their seats when the score was 61-61," Chris Haynes explained for Cleveland.com. "Cleveland dominated, 49-27, from that point."
Perhaps "King James" just feels more comfortable when surrounded by people he can relate to?
15. Minnesota Timberwolves: 15-67
16 of 30
Current Record: 4-16
Current Pace: 16-66
The Minnesota Timberwolves should be a threatening presence in the Western Conference a few years down the road but certainly not in the present. This team is building around a number of impressive young players, but there isn't enough veteran leadership or NBA-ready talent to make any noise.
Of those four victories, none has come against a particularly impressive team. The Wolves have taken down the Detroit Pistons, Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers, none of whom are slated to make the postseason in this set of record projections.
"When it gets out of hand, it gets out of hand," Mo Williams told Bleacher Report's Josh Martin after his Wolves lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in decisive fashion to open up the December portion of the schedule. "It's a snowball effect. We're young and we're learning how to play basketball, really."
Minnesota is in a nice place right now simply because it has the luxury of learning how to "play basketball." There are no delusions of playoff spots, and the young guns are getting a chance to figure things out sooner than many do.
But that doesn't mean this team is going to do anything in 2014-15 other than finish in the Western basement.
14. Utah Jazz: 20-62
17 of 30
Current Record: 6-16
Current Pace: 22-60
The Utah Jazz, much like the Minnesota Timberwolves, have plenty of young talent on the roster.
Gordon Hayward has looked much better during his second go-round as a featured player, Derrick Favors continues to look like a building block, and players like Enes Kanter, Trey Burke, Dante Exum, Rodney Hood and more have plenty of untapped potential. But for now, much of this team's upside is, well, untapped.
The largest problem in Salt Lake City is a complete inability to play quality defense. Though the offense has been middling, the Jazz are allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions, which beats out only the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves throughout the entire Association.
Not only has Utah allowed plenty of teams to post gaudy totals and percentages, but it rarely forces turnovers and is only mediocre on the defensive glass, which leads to plenty of extra possessions, shots and points. Until that changes, the upside of this team is going to be rather limited, even if there have been flashes of positive play coming in the near future.
Even though the individual pieces should continue to get better throughout 2014-15, the team's record is already misleadingly strong. Yes, the Jazz have won six games, but they were also on a nine-game skid heading into Tuesday night's outing with the San Antonio Spurs, one they somehow stole away from the defending champions. They've regressed after teams figured out how easy it was to score against them, and that isn't going to change anytime soon.
13. Los Angeles Lakers: 22-60
18 of 30
Current Record: 6-16
Current Pace: 22-60
The Los Angeles Lakers have been absolutely atrocious on the defensive end of the court, allowing a league-worst 114.6 points per 100 possessions. And it's not as though there are positive signs in any of the four defensive factors.
By allowing a 53.8 effective field-goal percentage, L.A. ranks No. 29 in that category, better than only the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Lakers also come in at No. 18 in opponents' turnover percentage, No. 19 in defensive rebounding percentage and No. 25 in free throws allowed per field-goal attempt. That's an ugly combination.
In fact, the Los Angeles defense actually resonates on a historic scale. With a 92.67 DRtng+, it's nearly on pace to supplant the 1998-99 Denver Nuggets as the worst point-preventing unit in the many years that the NBA has been around.
Kobe Bryant has been playing a bit smarter recently, and the return of Nick Young at least gives the team another weapon. Nonetheless, the defense is too bad to overcome on a regular basis, and these Lakers lack the personnel, the desire and the coaching to change that anytime soon.
Ed Davis is literally the only player on the roster with a positive defensive box plus-minus, indicating that he's the lone Laker providing more on the less glamorous end than a league-average player would. His DBPM of 0.5 isn't even that impressive, though, as it means he makes the team 0.5 points per 100 possessions better defensively than an average player could.
Wesley Johnson is next best, and his minus-0.5 DBPM is already on the wrong side of zero. Bryant? Minus-2.7. Young? A team-worst minus-4.5.
It just doesn't look good. And for this team, "it" can apply to absolutely anything on the defensive end.
12. Denver Nuggets: 37-45
19 of 30
Current Record: 9-12
Current Pace: 35-47
The Denver Nuggets haven't been able to enjoy much continuity during the 2014-15 season.
That's true when it comes to the roster, as they've reincorporated plenty of last year's injured players and dealt with some minor maladies from this season. It's also true of the schedule, as the Nuggets got off to a horrific start then went on a winning streak and subsequently forgot how to emerge victoriously.
The one enduring bright spot has been Ty Lawson. More aggressive than ever before and driving to the basket with insane frequency, the point guard has averaged 16.2 points and 10.4 assists per game, though he's admittedly struggled with his shot a bit.
While it's easy to recognize the strengths of Lawson's game, it's tougher to know exactly what to make of this team. There are so many offensive options on the roster, even if many of them have struggled to connect with any sort of frequency. But the system hasn't worked for the pieces, and defense has been a consistent issue in the Mile High City.
Fortunately, we'll get some clarity soon. Each of the team's next five games come against squads projected here as playoff ones.
11. Sacramento Kings: 38-44
20 of 30
Current Record: 11-11
Current Pace: 41-41
The Sacramento Kings, relevant for the first time in what's seemed like a decade, were one of the fun stories during the opening salvo of the 2014-15 season. Darren Collison was proving to be quite the free-agent steal, Rudy Gay was finally playing the right type of basketball and maximizing his talents, Mike Malone had built a clear-cut defensive identity and DeMarcus Cousins was looking like an MVP candidate.
But since winning five of their first six games, the Kings have gone just 6-10, falling back in the Western Conference standings rather significantly. The defense in particular has regressed, no longer looking like one of the better units in the league.
Now, Cousins is dealing with viral meningitis, which has already knocked him out of action since Nov. 28 and will keep him from suiting up in his uniform for a week longer, assuming all goes according to plan. It's a big loss, as the big man has been one of the league's most dominant players in the early goings, and it prevents Sacramento from gaining—or regaining—any momentum at this stage of the season.
Sacramento has already been exposed a bit, and there's no room for error in the highly competitive race for one of the eight coveted playoff spots in the West.
Even a brief skid can spell doom.
10. New Orleans Pelicans: 40-42
21 of 30
Current Record: 10-10
Current Pace: 41-41
Anthony Davis has been absolutely unbelievable during the 2014-15 season, and I mean that in its literal sense. As in, I really can't believe there's a 21-year-old big man competing for a scoring title in efficient fashion, leading the league in blocks, rebounding with ferocity and striving to submit the highest PER of all time.
But while Davis is making us drop the prefix in "impossible," the rest of the New Orleans Pelicans aren't exactly playing to his level.
Among players spending at least 20 minutes per game on the court, Jrue Holiday (18.3), Ryan Anderson (16.6) and Omer Asik (17.9) are the only ones with PERs on the right side of the league-average mark of 15. That's not good enough in the West, no matter how mind-numbingly amazing the unibrowed big man has been during his third professional campaign.
Until this team finds better wing players and realizes that it's supposed to play high-quality defense on a regular basis, it's doomed for yet another lottery finish.
At least we'll get to figure out if MVP voters are willing to reward Davis despite him playing on a non-playoff team. No player on such a squad has won the award since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did so in 1975-76 with the 40-42 Los Angeles Lakers.
9. Oklahoma City Thunder: 48-34
22 of 30
Current Record: 8-13
Current Pace: 31-51
The Oklahoma City Thunder already have their work cut out for them. And unfortunately for their supporters and the members of their organization, the early hole they dug will ultimately prove to be juuust a bit too deep.
Last season, it took 49 wins to make the playoffs in the Western Conference, and it should be no different in 2014-15, as you'll see shortly.
So, to get to 49 wins, the Thunder would have to go 41-20 over the rest of the season. That equates to a winning percentage of 67.2 percent—the equivalent of a 55-win season. Can the Thunder do that at full strength? Absolutely, but there's no margin for error whatsoever, and the early signs aren't all that good.
Thing is, the Thunder can't afford to work Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant back into the lineup. They need them playing at 100 percent right now, and that's not a realistic request, especially for the reigning MVP who's coming back from a notoriously tricky foot injury.
Durant has played in four games thus far, and the results haven't been earth-shatteringly impressive. The Thunder have lost to the New Orleans Pelicans in his debut and then took down the Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons (arguably the two worst teams in the league) by a combined 14 points. After that, they held off the Milwaukee Bucks in a 114-101 victory.
During that four-game stretch, OKC has produced an offensive rating of 108.2 and a defensive rating of 103.3. That's a huge improvement already, but those numbers would rank No. 10 and No. 8 respectively. Is that good enough? Maybe, maybe not.
Am I making a big deal over a four-game stretch? Of course, but it's necessary when a team is already out of wiggle room, needs immediate top-tier production from two recently returned stars and can't afford even a single big injury during the rest of the campaign.
8. Phoenix Suns: 49-33
23 of 30
Current Record: 12-11
Current Pace: 43-39
The Phoenix Suns still haven't formed a true identity this season, and they're still 12-10. They could also be 13-10 if it weren't for an unlucky bounce when Blake Griffin attempted—and made—a game-winning three on Monday night.
Much hype accompanied the signing of Isaiah Thomas and the return of Eric Bledsoe, as they could join up with Goran Dragic to form a brutal three-guard lineup and wreak havoc for the Suns. But the trio of point guards hasn't actually been used all that often.
According to NBA.com's statistical databases (subscription required), they've only spent 23 minutes on the court together over the course of eight games, and they've been outscored by 27.8 points per 100 possessions.
So that hasn't worked, and the Suns have had to be more traditional. Somehow, they're exceeding the expectations and playing with a slightly above-average defense, while the offense hasn't been the world-beating unit it could've been.
A rough upcoming schedule will teach us a lot about these desert-dwellers, but it's already obvious this is a high-quality team with legitimately achievable playoff aspirations.
7. Dallas Mavericks: 52-30
24 of 30
Current Record: 16-7
Current Pace: 57-25
There's no doubt the Dallas Mavericks are going to be a competitive team throughout the 2014-15 season, but there are a few issues with their 57-win pace.
First, it's tough to win consistently in the Western Conference when you have trouble stopping just about any offensive style. The Mavs looked to be improved for a short while on the defensive end, but they're regressing once more and still show way too much reliance on Tyson Chandler's rim-protecting skills. Now allowing 108.3 points per 100 possessions, they're ranked No. 23 in the defensive rating rankings.
That also gives Dallas a DRtng+ of 98.06, and absolutely no team with a score below 99 has been able to win 60 games. Exactly 500 teams throughout NBA history have failed to top 99, and the 1994-95 Phoenix Suns were the closest to the 60-win barrier, falling one victory shy. Everyone else has won 57 games or fewer.
Defensive improvement is a must. And so too is figuring out what to do when the offense inevitably regresses.
The Mavericks are on pace to have the best ORtng+ of all time (109.32), but it's tough to sustain that type of production. Dirk Nowitzki has already cooled off a bit, and Monta Ellis should eventually do the same. While there's no doubt this is going to be an excellent bunch of scorers, it's a bit much to expect them to become the greatest offense in NBA history.
6. Portland Trail Blazers: 54-28
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Current Record: 17-4
Current Pace: 66-16
At what point do we realize that the Portland Trail Blazers have a deal with the devil?
The Phoenix Suns get credit for their incredible medical staff, one that helps prevent injuries and rejuvenate the careers of veterans previously cast off by other squads. The San Antonio Spurs must house the Fountain of Youth within their offices, otherwise the continued production of guys like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili would be inexplicable. But these Blazers just never seem to get hurt.
Is it black magic? Has Rip City sold its soul? Is this just karma repaying Portland for the years with Brandon Roy and Greg Oden racking up medical bills?
Regardless, Damian Lillard has played in all 21 games for Portland thus far. Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Steve Blake and Chris Kaman have as well. LaMarcus Aldridge has missed just a single contest, while Nicolas Batum did admittedly sit out four of them.
Eventually, this luck is going to run out. And when that happens, Portland doesn't have the bench production necessary to avoid slipping down in the standings. Plus, even if the starters do remain healthy all year, they're still carrying too much weight to avoid a bit of a late-season decline, hence projecting them to fall well off the 66-win pace.
5. Houston Rockets: 57-25
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Current Record: 16-4
Current Pace: 66-16
The Houston Rockets have been one of the best in the West during the first quarter of the 2014-15 campaign, and that's not going to change anytime soon. Winning 57 games is nothing to be upset about, even if it "only" leads to the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference.
And really, they haven't been quite as impressive as that gaudy 16-4 record may be.
Their margin of victory isn't on the same level as some of the other elites, and they've played the league's fifth-easiest schedule. As a result, they have a 3.47 SRS, the No. 9 mark in the league. It's a score that leaves Houston trailing the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference alone.
Fortunately, they won't drop all that far in the standings. Not only does the hot start help—the Pythagorean record shows the Rockets should be just 13-7—but the eventual return of Dwight Howard will do wonders for the team as well.
What Houston has done without the big man on the court has been undeniably impressive, and he's not going to be out forever.
4. San Antonio Spurs: 58-24
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Current Record: 15-6
Current Pace: 59-23
Don't doubt the San Antonio Spurs.
They'll probably end up reeling off a 45-game win streak soon, rendering my sub-60-win prediction utter folly. That's just what this organization does year after year, even if there are always signs pointing in the opposite direction.
Despite Tim Duncan taking a smaller offensive role, Tony Parker struggling a bit and plenty of injuries rearing their ugly heads, the Spurs are still on pace for a 59-win season. Frankly, they might get even better once Patty Mills and Tiago Splitter are back in the rotation, having healed from their respective injuries. But, just as always, the regular season isn't the focus for San Antonio.
It's all about the playoffs.
Gregg Popovich is going to keep resting key players, exercising caution and letting Kawhi Leonard—the future of the franchise—develop as quickly as possible. After all, it's not like the Spurs are going to lose much even with less important players filling more important rules.
Again, don't doubt the Spurs. Here's hoping that predicting 58 wins isn't viewed as doubting them.
3. Memphis Grizzlies: 59-23
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Current Record: 17-4
Current Pace: 66-16
The Memphis Grizzlies have been on quite the tear since Marc Gasol returned to the lineup during the 2013-14 season after recovering from his sprained MCL. That happened on Jan. 14 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Grizz would go 33-13 for the rest of the season.
That put them on a 59-win pace.
Now, they're looking even stronger, winning 17 of their first 21 games. So, why are they going to regress back to last year's pace by the end of this current campaign?
Well, they've played an easy schedule so far, one that hasn't matched them up against the elite teams in the Western Conference too often. Of their 17 wins, just eight have come against teams projected to make the playoffs in this article. When playing one of the seven elites in the West (again, as determined by these projections), Memphis has gone just 4-2.
Eventually, the outings are going to get a bit more difficult, even if the Grizz have looked quite dominant for a long time.
2. Los Angeles Clippers: 60-22
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Current Record: 15-5
Current Pace: 62-20
The Los Angeles Clippers may have begun the season slowly, but they're rounding into form.
Following their overtime victory against the Phoenix Suns, L.A. has emerged with a win in eight consecutive contests, and it's now 11-2 since beginning the season in 4-3 fashion. Plus, the team has looked rather strong on both ends of the court after the slow start to the year.
During those last 13 games, the Clippers have an offensive rating of 117.9, and they've allowed just 105 points per 100 possessions. Those numbers, were they maintained throughout the year, would rank No. 1 and No. 10 respectively. And any time you're in the top 10 on both sides of the ball, good things tend to happen.
Los Angeles still needs to find more ball-handling options, and solving the problem at the 3 would be rather nice. But all the same, the Clippers still boast the services of Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, as well as a number of other strong role players.
Apparently, it was a bit early to be foretelling doom and gloom for these title contenders just a handful of games into the season.
1. Golden State Warriors: 62-20
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Current Record: 18-2
Current Pace: 74-8
How do you know that a team is beginning the season in stellar fashion? How about when it wins 13 games in a row, pushes its record to 18-2 on the year and, at the quarter-season mark, is on pace to set the all-time record for most wins in a single go-round?
The Golden State Warriors have been the best team in the league thus far, even if they've played an easy schedule while racking up one victory after another. The only two blemishes have come against the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs, and though there have been close calls, it's not as though those are losses to be embarrassed about.
Klay Thompson is vastly improved. Andrew Bogut is showing what he can do when healthy. The team is deep. Stephen Curry is arguably the leading MVP candidate.
All the pieces are there.
Expecting this team to stay on a 74-win pace is insane. There will be some regression, particularly as the schedule heats up.
But seriously. Right now, what is there not to love?
