Miami Heat's Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for December
The Miami Heat will enter December in an interesting place.
After starting the season 5-2, the Heat have struggled and find themselves just one game above .500 at 8-7 (seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference). While that's not the type of record Miami was hoping to have at this point in the season, it's nothing to be overly concerned about, either.
The Heat's recent slide is largely a product of Dwyane Wade's health issues. The 32-year-old has missed Miami's past seven games with a hamstring injury. Fortunately for the Heat, he is expected to return in the team's next game on Sunday, according to Shandel Richardson of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
With Wade getting healthy, Miami has a great shot at returning to its winning ways in December.
We're going to take a look at the Heat's December—breaking down and predicting each game—to find out just how much ground Miami can make up in the East during 2014's final month.
Week 1: December 1-7
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Schedule: at Washington Wizards (Dec. 1), vs. Atlanta Hawks (Dec. 3), at Milwaukee Bucks (Dec. 5) and at Memphis Grizzlies (Dec. 7)
Game of the Week: Washington Wizards
The Heat don't exactly have an easy stretch of games to open the month.
Miami's first week features four games. Three are on the road, and all are against teams that are at least two games above .500.
The Heat's first game of the month will be the most important. The Wizards are 10-5, and many view them as the favorites to win the Southeast Division this year.
The two teams met once before this season, with the Heat toppling Washington 107-95 in Miami on Oct. 29.
However, the Wizards were without Nene and Bradley Beal in the contest. This time, Beal will be available. Plus, the game will be played in Washington, making this a great test for the Heat.
The Grizzlies also represent a significant challenge for Erik Spoelstra's squad. At 14-2, they have the best record in the NBA.
Memphis presents problems for the Heat: It rebounds the ball well and destroys teams inside, two areas in which Miami struggles.
Looking at the Heat's other two matchups, both the Hawks and Bucks are 1-0 against Miami this year.
The Hawks dismantled Miami's defense (114 points scored), while the Bucks held the Heat to one of their fewest point totals of the year (84 points).
However, Miami didn't have Wade in either contest. He could be a difference-maker in these two December matchups.
Predictions: 2-2 (wins versus Hawks and Bucks)
Week 2: December 8-14
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Schedule: at Phoenix Suns (Dec. 9), at Denver Nuggets (Dec. 10), at Utah Jazz (Dec. 12) and vs. Chicago Bulls (Dec. 14)
Game of the Week: Chicago Bulls
After five consecutive road games, the Heat will come home on Dec. 14 and face the Bulls, one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
That's a measuring stick game for Miami.
The Heat have not played very well against elite competition at home—the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors have all blown them out. It will be interesting to see if Miami can reverse this recent trend and prove it can hang with the best.
Chicago has long been a stout defensive team, but now it boasts a somewhat formidable offensive attack as well. The emergence of Jimmy Butler along with the offseason acquisition of Pau Gasol makes this team difficult to stop when Derrick Rose is healthy.
Miami will no doubt need to be on its A-game on both sides of the ball if it is to come away with a win.
The Heat's other three Week 2 games all come against Western Conference foes.
The Suns (10-7) play a contrasting style to the Heat, making this a game to keep an eye on. Phoenix likes to run (fourth-fastest pace in the league), and the Heat do not (29th-fastest pace in the league). It won't be easy, but Miami will have to do its best to make sure this game is played at its pace.
Typically, a matchup against the Nuggets wouldn't be reason for concern. But the Heat have to play Brian Shaw's squad on the second night of a back-to-back in Denver. Playing in that altitude on tired legs could prove to be problematic for Miami.
The only game this week that the Heat should definitely win comes on Dec. 12 against the Jazz. Utah is 5-12 and among the worst defensive teams in the league. Miami has more than enough offensive firepower (14th in offensive rating) to light up the Jazz (28th in defensive rating).
Predictions: 2-2 (wins versus Suns and Jazz)
Week 3: December 15-21
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Schedule: at Brooklyn Nets (Dec. 16), vs. Utah Jazz (Dec. 17), vs. Washington Wizards (Dec. 19) and vs. Boston Celtics (Dec. 21)
Game of the Week: Washington Wizards
If the Heat are to have a breakout week in December, it's likely to come in Week 3.
Miami beat the Nets by 12 points on the road without both Wade and Luol Deng on Nov. 17. The Heat have nothing to be afraid of heading back to Brooklyn and facing Lionel Hollins' aging squad.
As we touched on earlier, Miami has a clear-cut talent advantage over Utah, and if the Heat play their game, they should roll over the Jazz on Dec. 17.
Still, it's crucial for the Heat not to overlook the contest. Given the difficulties they've had against top competition, the Heat can't afford to give away the easy ones.
The Wizards once again represent the Heat's most notable opponent. Even at this early stage of the season, divisional matchups are of great importance. The Heat and Wizards are two fairly even teams in terms of all-around talent. Having home-court advantage just may be the thing that pushes Miami over the top in this one.
Miami will close out the week against the 4-9 Celtics. This is another game the Heat can't afford to drop. Boston simply doesn't play the type of team defense (26th in defensive rating) necessary to hold Miami in check. Look for Chris Bosh to have a big game here. Boston doesn't have anyone who can guard him.
Predictions: 4-0
Week 4 and Week 5: December 22-31
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Schedule: vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Dec. 23), vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Dec. 25), vs. Memphis Grizzlies (Dec. 27) vs. Orlando Magic (Dec. 29) and at Indiana Pacers (Dec. 31)
Game of the Week: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Heat's Christmas Day contest against the Cleveland Cavaliers might be the NBA's most anticipated regular-season game overall, so it easily qualifies as our game of the week.
LeBron James will make his return to Miami, and basketball fans everywhere will tune in. Will Heat fans embrace the guy who helped bring them two rings or boo the guy who left their team this past offseason? Will the Heat show LeBron he made a mistake by beating the Cavs, or will he play the role of the Grinch and ruin Christmas for Miamians?
Even ignoring all the juicy storylines, this is an important game for Miami. Despite the Cavs' struggles this season, they aren't an easy team to beat. A win would be quite the confidence-booster for the Heat.
As for Miami's other games, it has one really tough matchup and three games against inferior teams.
The 76ers are 0-16 and could finish as one of the worst teams in league history. If the Heat don't smoke them, there's a problem.
The Grizzlies present problems for Miami, as we touched on earlier. Bosh and the rest of the Heat's bigs must play physical and battle down low with Memphis' front line for Miami to have a chance.
The Heat beat the Magic 99-92 on the road without Wade earlier this season, which bodes well for Miami's chances of beating Orlando at home with Wade presumably healthy. If the Heat are to fall, it will be because of Nikola Vucevic. The Magic big man took advantage of the Heat's size problems and dropped 33 points with 17 boards in their last matchup.
As for Miami's final matchup of the year, the Pacers stunningly beat the Heat 81-75 at the AmericanAirlines Arena earlier this season.
The Heat were without Wade, but that still qualifies as an embarrassing loss.
The Pacers are banged up and have little offensive talent. Expect the Heat to come out with a lot of energy in hopes of avenging that November defeat.
Predictions: 3-2 (wins versus 76ers, Magic and Pacers)
December Recap
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After tallying up our week-by-week predictions, the Heat end up with an 11-6 record in December. Considering Miami's current record, the Heat will gladly take 11 December wins.
December is the month for Miami to make a push toward one of the top spots in the Eastern Conference. There are some tough games in the month (two against Memphis, two against Washington, one against Chicago, etc.), but there are even more games against the NBA's worst teams.
The East is fairly weak. It's not going to take, say, 57 wins to earn a top-three playoff seed like it might in the West. If the Heat can simply win the games they are supposed to win and a steal a game here and there against the league's best teams, they'll have a chance to earn a top-half playoff seed.
December will prove a lot in regard to what Miami is capable of.
Note: All stats from Basketball Reference.
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