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Bleacher Report's Expert Week 1 2026 NFL Picks
It's a new year for Bleacher Report's experts, and they're ready to lead you through another profitable season.
We're back with the same crew that includes analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton, and Brent Sobleski, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford. Last season, Gagnon and Hanford led the group at 143-127-2 for the season. Moton finished third at 139-131-2.
Our panel will use the same format as last year, sharing all their picks and challenging each other with opposing views on every game unless there's a unanimous selection. We'll also keep track of lone-wolf picks, which were 32-29-1 last year.
Now, let's look ahead to the Week 1 slate, which starts Wednesday with the Super Bowl LX rematch and a lone-wolf pick right off the top.
Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Sept. 8, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
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Knox: Seahawks (-3.5)
I don't think the Super Bowl LX rematch will be as one-sided as last year's championship game. However, I do believe that Seattle's defensive front can prevent Drake Maye and the Patriots from finding an offensive rhythm once again.
With home-field advantage playing a factor, Seattle should win by more than a field goal and walk away with a 1-0 record.
Moton: Patriots (+3.5)
It's understandable that the panel leaned heavily toward the Seahawks, given Seattle's dominant 29-13 victory over New England in Super Bowl LX six months ago. Since then, the Seahawks have lost key parts of that team and coaching staff.
Former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker, who led Seattle's backfield with 1,027 yards and five touchdowns, signed with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Seahawks also lost cornerback Riq Woolen and safety Coby Bryant in free agency.
Meanwhile, the Patriots added wideouts A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Running back TreVeyon Henderson won't play because of an ankle injury, though Rhamondre Stevenson has handled a workhorse role in the past. New England covers the 3.5-point spread.
Predictions
Patriots: Moton
Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (in Australia)
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Hanford: Rams (-3.5)
There's no team entering the season with bigger hype than the Rams, and I'm buying it. While you could argue that the Rams' travel plans and a 49ers team that's probably more overlooked than they should be entering the season is a recipe for an upset, I think the Rams will show right away why they're the Super Bowl favorites. Rams win by a touchdown behind a dominant defensive performance.
O'Donnell: 49ers (+3.5)
Both teams have been major offseason headline generators: the Rams for building a super team headlined by the Myles Garrett trade and return of Aaron Donald; and the 49ers for what boils down to a lot of negativity headlined by injuries.
In fact, while almost all the focus has been on George Kittle's potential (likely?) return in Week 1, we don't actually know if Christian McCaffrey will be fit to play, and conventional wisdom would be to back the favorites. But these two teams traveled a long, long way to play a football game, and I'd rather take the points against a familiar foe in an unfamiliar setting regardless of who is on the field.
Predictions
49ers: Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell
Rams: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Sobleski
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
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Davenport: Bills (-1.5)
Laying points on the road against arguably the NFL's best defense is starting the season with some anxiety. But I have that much more anxiety about C.J. Stroud after how he finished last season—Josh Allen leads the Bills to a close win on one of Week 1's better games.
Gagnon: Texans (+1.5)
Week 1 is a lot of gut, and I have a feeling the Houston defense will be extremely prepared for Buffalo in the Texans' home opener. That was certainly the case when they beat the Bills at this very site in November 2025. The Bills are an excellent team, but this is a tough spot for their new coach.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport
Texans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
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Moton: Bears (-2.5)
The Bears enter this matchup with a shaky secondary. Safety Coby Bryant underwent knee surgery and will miss a few months of action. Slot cornerback Kyler Gordon is on the physically unable to perform list with a calf injury.
However, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young hasn't shown the ability to exploit opposing pass defenses' weaknesses, averaging just 180.2 passing yards per game over his three-year career.
Bears go on the road with their ascending offense and win by at least a field goal.
Sobleski: Bears (-2.5)
The Carolina Panthers finished among the bottom six in total offense last season. The organization added next-to-nothing to improve the unit. If anything, the group might be worse since both offensive tackle spots remain a serious concern. Conversely, the Chicago Bears are explosive enough offensively to easily cover this spread.
Predictions
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Gagnon: Jaguars (-7.5)
I think the Browns could have some surprisingly nice moments this season, but this ain't the spot. Cleveland is, at the very least, a work in progress as a new core and coaching staff settle in. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are a well-oiled machine on a strong trajectory following a superb second half to the 2025 campaign. I expect them to keep rolling in their home opener.
Sobleski: Browns (+7.5)
Despite every expectation of the Cleveland Browns' offense imploding thanks to questionable quarterback setup, Todd Monken's squad gets the benefit of the doubt in the head coach's debut because of its defense. Myles Garrett might be gone, but this unit still has playmakers at all three levels to slow the Jaguars and make the contest interesting.
Predictions
Browns: Hanford, Knox, Sobleski
Jaguars: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
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Gagnon: Falcons (+3.5)
I don't trust the Steelers, and I hate that hook for them. It's really that simple. These teams are closer to being evenly matched than many might believe, and the Steelers were far from impressive at home in 2025. The Falcons didn't lose by more than a field goal in regulation in any of their last six road games last season. They should keep this game tight.
Hanford: Steelers (-3.5)
The jury is out on Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy's reunion in Pittsburgh and the impact it will have on a stagnant Steelers offense, but I just don't see the "winner" of the NFL's least inspiring QB battle, Tua Tagovailoa, doing serious damage to the Steelers defense. I expect this game to be ugly, like most Steelers games are, but Tagovailoa makes one too many mistakes to give Pittsburgh as the clubs moves to 6-1 in its last 7 games ATS against Atlanta.
Predictions
Falcons: Gagnon
Steelers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
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Davenport: Jets (+1.5)
Fans who watch this entire game should receive some sort of reparations from the NFL. Neither offense in this slopfest can be trusted even a little, but for my money the Jets are slightly better defensively. First team to 13 points wins!
Knox: Titans (-1.5)
I'm inclined to believe it when I see it with Robert Saleh, Cam Ward, and the Titans. However, I believe they at least have the potential to turn things around quickly. The Jets? Not so much. I believe that New York is playing for 2027 and beyond.
I don't envision Tennessee running away with this one, but I don't see the Jets winning on the road, and this is awfully close to a pick 'em.
Predictions
Jets: Davenport
Titans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
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Hanford: Saints (+7)
The Saints closed last season red hot, and while some of that may be fool's gold, I think they'll keep this one within a touchdown. I expect Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Co. to have success against the Saints' defense, but I don't trust the Lions' secondary to give Tyler Shough major issues. Lions win by six in a high-scoring game.
O'Donnell: Lions (-7)
Hey, the Saints are going to be feisty, and the panel is just about split on the Lions giving this many points for good reason. Missing the playoffs a year ago should be gnawing at Dan Campbell's group, though. Detroit scored an average of 32-plus points per game at home last season — a full touchdown more than on the road.
Can the Saints go toe-to-toe in a shootout with the Lions in Detroit? Maybe, but I'll back a first-week barrage from the stronger offensive unit as the Lions look to set the tone for a rebound campaign.
Predictions
Saints: Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Lions: Davenport, Gagnon, O'Donnell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
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Knox: Buccaneers (+3.5)
If Joe Burrow can stay healthy, Cincinnati's new-look defense should make the Bengals legitimate AFC contenders. However, the Bengals have been notorious for slow starts under Zac Taylor. I can't envision them winning big against a Buccaneers team that can play the underdog card after missing the playoffs in 2025.
Sobleski: Bengals (-3.5)
Joe Burrow and Co. should hit the ground running. Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do the same without Mike Evans on the roster? Obviously, quarterback Baker Mayfield has other weapons in Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. However, the Cincinnati Bengals still have an advantage in offensive firepower with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who were both back at practice this week
Predictions
Buccaneers: Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Bengals: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, Sobleski
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
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Hanford: Ravens (-3.5)
Backing this many favorites at 3.5 makes me antsy, but I think the Ravens will be too much for the Colts here.
I'm not sold on the Ravens overall this season, but I think their improved defense under Jesse Minter, with the addition of Trey Hendrickson, should give them enough punch to make life very difficult for Daniel Jones. Lamar Jackson has to get back on track as a passer this season, but I think he makes enough plays to put Baltimore over the top.
Sobleski: Colts (+3.5)
Interestingly, the Indianapolis Colts' defense has a very specific matchup in its favor, with the defensive tackle duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart facing two brand-new starters along the Baltimore Ravens' offensive line. Thus, the Colts could control the line of scrimmage to make life difficult on quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Offensively, Indianapolis should have all of its pieces back in place to get off to a hot start, as it did last season.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton
Colts: Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
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Hanford: Eagles (-5.5)
The Eagles have a lot of questions to answer on the offensive side of the ball in Week 1, but I'm just not buying the Commanders yet. Jayden Daniels is healthy, which will help, but the weapons around him leave some to be desired, and the absence of star LT Laremy Tunsil will loom large against an Eagles defense that loves to get after the quarterback.
I'm not sure Jalen Hurts silences the critics in Week 1, but I do think the Eagles have enough juice in the run game and on defense to control the game and win by a touchdown.
Moton: Commanders (+5.5)
This is a divisional matchup, and both quarterbacks are learning new offenses. Expect both teams to be inefficient in a game of missed opportunities, while both defenses capitalize on miscues with takeaways.
Philadelphia also lost some offensive explosiveness when it traded three-time Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots. On the ground, running back Saquon Barkley helps the Eagles grind out a close victory by a margin short of a touchdown.
Predictions
Commanders: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Eagles: Davenport, Hanford
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
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Davenport: Packers (+1.5)
Neither of these teams are especially easy to trust in the early-going this year—the Vikings have a new quarterback in Kyler Murray and the Packers have significant questions on defense, especially where the pass rush is concerned. I'll take the points—with exactly zero confidence.
Gagnon: Vikings (-1.5)
I don't know how I feel about the Packers opening the season on the road against a sneaky-good division rival without Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons. Throw in the unpredictability factor with Kyler Murray, and I think Green Bay is in a tough situation here.
Predictions
Packers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Vikings: Davenport, Sobleski
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
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Moton: Raiders (-3.5)
This will be one of the rare moments in the season that laying more than a field goal on the Raiders is a reasonable position on their spread.
Both teams are in rebuild mode, but Las Vegas has star power in its favor. After missing five games with a PCL injury last season, All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers is healthy. Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak is optimistic about running back Ashton Jeanty suiting up after he suffered an ankle injury during practice on August 23.
Although the Raiders have an unproven secondary with rookie second-rounder Treydan Stukes likely to play at safety and second-year pro Darien Porter at the No. 2 cornerback spot, quarterback Kirk Cousins is more equipped to dice up a shaky pass defense than Malik Willis. Bowers and Jeanty lead Las Vegas to a win by a touchdown.
O'Donnell: Dolphins (+3.5)
Woof. Two organizations in complete rebuild mode. Two new starting quarterbacks under new coaching staffs. Just give me the points in this one, and I'll figure out what to do with these two for the rest of the season after Week 1.
Predictions
Dolphins: Hanford, O'Donnell
Raiders: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
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Davenport: Cardinals (+9.5)
To be clear, the Arizona Cardinals have about as much chance of winning this game as I do of winning an Academy Award. But Arizona has talent on offense and showed it can move the ball last season—Jacoby Brissett will lead a garbage-time touchdown drive late and the Redbirds will sneak in the back door for the cover.
Moton: Chargers (-9.5)
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been teammates with his top pass-catchers for multiple years, and the team added tight end David Njoku, who has 384 receptions for 4,062 yards and 34 touchdowns in his nine-year career.
With newly established offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel calling the plays, the Chargers could score in flurries against the Cardinals, who retained defensive coordinator Nick Rallis after his unit gave up the fourth-most points last season.
Predictions
Cardinals: Davenport, Hanford
Chargers: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
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Knox: Cowboys (-2.5)
Will the Giants be better under new head coach John Harbaugh? Yes. Are they prepared to keep pace with a team that has one of the NFL's top offenses and a vastly improved defense? At this point in the season, I don't believe so.
Week 1 divisional matchups can be unpredictable, and I won't be shocked if the Giants steal this one. I think it's far more likely that Dallas makes one or two defensive plays that it wouldn't have made a year ago to preserve a one-score victory.
O'Donnell: Giants (+2.5)
The Cowboys are the better team on paper, and the Giants' secondary will have a hard time defending CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens even if Big Blue is getting to Dak Prescott.
But if a new coaching staff and the return of two injured star players to the lineup (Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers), on top of two rookie first-round picks starting in their debuts (Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa), at home on Sunday Night Football against a bitter rival, isn't enough to get a team up, then what in the gorydamn hell are we playing this game for?
Predictions
Cowboys: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Giants: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
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Knox: Broncos (+2.5)
Winning as the road team in Kansas City is tough, but defense travels, and the Broncos have one of the best in the business. Beyond that, I think it's going to take a few games for Patrick Mahomes to find his groove with whatever post-injury playing style he brings to the 2026 season.
The Chiefs will go as Mahomes does, and one or two instances of him hesitating behind the line will sink them against arguably the most well-rounded team in the conference.
O'Donnell: Chiefs (-2.5)
The Denver defense is going to be a problem for Kansas City, especially with a less than 100% healthy Patrick Mahomes back under center. On paper, the Broncos might be the better all-around team, too.
And, the Chiefs have lost two of the last three season openers, with the lone victory being a controversial end-of-game call that gave K.C. the victory over Baltimore in 2024. Yeah, all things point to a Broncos cover, if not an outright win. So, I'll ride with the minority and lay these points with the home team covering late.
Predictions
Broncos: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Chiefs: Hanford, O'Donnell
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