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Bleacher Report's 2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend Playoff Picks
Slide your chips toward the middle of the table; it's time to try to go green for NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Our panel of NFL experts, B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell are geared up for playoff football. As the competition ramps up on the field, the crew knows bettors need an edge on wagers for these marquee games.
As you can see in our standings below, Gagnon and Hanford tied for the best record against the spread for the regular season. They're going to carry that momentum into the playoffs, while everyone else sharpens their analysis for a profitable January.
Our panel is split down the middle on favorites and underdogs ATS. Let's see which side they're on for the six Wild Card Round matchups.
Regular Season ATS Standings
T-1. Gagnon 143-127-2
T-1. Hanford: 143-127-2
3. Moton: 139-131-2
4. Sobleski: 136-134-2
5. Knox: 134-136-2
6. O'Donnell: 131-139-2
7. Davenport: 124-146-2
Lone Wolf Picks: 32-29-1
Lines are from Action Network as of Thursday, Jan. 8, at 4 p.m. ET. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
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Moton: Rams (-10.5)
Carolina backed its way into the playoffs, losing three of its last four games. In their previous game against an NFC heavyweight, the Panthers lost 27-10 to the Seattle Seahawks at home.
The Los Angeles Rams will avenge their Week 13 loss to the Panthers with a two-touchdown victory margin. Matthew Stafford picks apart the Panthers defense with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who's set to return from a hamstring injury.
Sobleski: Rams (-10.5)
Truthfully, the Panthers arguably don't have a playoff-caliber résumé. They lost a must-win game in Week 18, finished with a record below .500 and needed tiebreakers to secure a division title. Because of the NFL's postseason format, Carolina inexplicably gets to host the Rams during this year's first round.
Despite the Panthers' fortunate turn of events, they're about to face a buzzsaw in the NFL's top-ranked offense. Carolina may have snuck away with a victory earlier in the season during a similar setup. However, the Panthers needed to play at their very best, with Matthew Stafford near his worst this season, to squeak by. It won't happen again.
Predictions
Rams: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
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Knox: Bears (+1.5)
I won't be shocked if the Green Bay Packers win Round 3 of their latest series with the Chicago Bears.
However, I can't ignore the fact that Green Bay is backing its way into the playoffs with four straight losses or how different its defense has looked without Micah Parsons.
The big unknown is whether the Bears' offense will more closely resemble the high-flying one we saw against San Francisco in Week 17 or the clunker we witnessed against the Detroit Lions in the season finale.
I don't think Chicago will come out as flat as it did against Detroit, and while I'm not expecting a high-scoring game, I think the Bears will strike first and force the Packers to chase. In front of a rowdy Chicago crowd that hasn't hosted a playoff game since 2018, that will give a big advantage to the home team.
Sobleski: Packers (-1.5)
Yes, Green Bay lost four straight games to end the regular season, including to the Bears. But those contests all had one thing in common: injuries.
The Packers lost Micah Parsons, then Jordan Love. The former won't be back, but the latter was cleared from the concussion protocol before the Week 18 slate. Green Bay's coaching staff decided to rest many of its key contributors, though.
This pick comes down to trust with each team's quarterback. Love was one of the best in 2025. While Caleb Williams showed marked improvement, he also committed critical mistakes in multiple contests.
If the Bears get away from running the ball like they have, Love and Co. should get a bit of revenge from the last meeting.
Predictions
Packers: Sobleski
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
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Davenport: Jaguars (+1.5)
That the Jags are getting points at home despite eight straight wins and nine victories in 10 games (including a blowout victory over the Chargers and an impressive win in Denver) shows that Vegas isn't completely sold on Jacksonville.
However, the Jaguars are playing as well as any team in the AFC, and they should be able to both pressure Josh Allen and run the ball on Buffalo's bottom-five run defense.
This is the week when the Jaguars truly legitimize themselves as a contender in the conference.
Gagnon: Bills (-1.5)
Admittedly, this is a scary one for a Buffalo team that loses its winter-weather advantage. Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, and the Jags have won four straight home games by 17-plus points.
However, Buffalo has a whole lot more playoff experience than Jacksonville, and it also has the best player in the sport.
I still have a hard time trusting Trevor Lawrence, and this is a slightly less intimidating road environment compared to Allen's last three road playoff losses in Kansas City.
Buffalo wins a close game thanks to some Allen magic in crunch time.
Predictions
Bills: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Jaguars: Davenport, Hanford, Sobleski
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San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
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Hanford: Eagles (-4.5)
The Seahawks ran through the 49ers defense on the ground last week, and I'm expecting the Eagles to follow the same formula in the Wild Card Round.
Philadelphia's offense has had its share of struggles this season, but this is a good spot to lean on Saquon Barkley and expect Jalen Hurts to make a handful of key plays against a 49ers defense that has struggled to rush the QB after Nick Bosa's injury.
San Francisco's offense is strong, but the Eagles defense is better, especially in a key spot at home. I expect the Eagles to limit Christian McCaffrey and create problems for Brock Purdy as they cover the spread here.
O'Donnell: 49ers (+4.5)
Can the Eagles flip that switch and turn into the reigning champs folks have been waiting for all season?
Philly has needed the defense to largely carry things. Offensively, the question marks continue to hover like a dark cloud. After a 4-0 start, the Eagles went 7-6 down the stretch and only averaged 21 points per game.
Again, the defense did the bulk of the heavy lifting in several key victories, and the unit is good enough to do so here. However, laying 4.5 against a 49ers team that has been punching above its weight all season is a dicey choice.
I'm more likely to believe the 49ers pull the outright upset than I am to believe the Eagles play a complete game, so taking the points is the safest route.
Predictions
49ers: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Eagles: Gagnon, Hanford
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
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Moton: Chargers (+3.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers' offensive line is the team's Achilles' heel, but the New England Patriots may not be able to fully exploit that weakness. The Patriots defense finished 24th in pressure rate for the regular season.
Justin Herbert will have time to target wide receivers Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston downfield, which should be enough to keep the score within a field goal, but it shouldn't surprise anyone to see the Chargers pull off the upset.
O'Donnell: Patriots (-3.5)
This is an agonizing hook, but if you're taking the Patriots—which five of us on the panel are doing—you have to think they'll continue winning the way they have for the better part of three months.
After starting 2-2, the Pats went 12-1 to close the year, averaging a margin of victory of more than 12 points. Sure, the schedule was historically weak, but they can only play the team that is lined up against them.
New England has been considerably more consistent than the Chargers this season, and injuries are a problem for Los Angeles. Justin Herbert is not on Josh Allen's level yet as a playoff quarterback, and New England's consistency should delay Herbert's first postseason win; the Pats are the pick to cover here.
Predictions
Chargers: Gagnon, Moton
Patriots: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
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Hanford: Steelers (+3)
A push is definitely on the table here as I could easily see a 20-17 Texans win, but I'm leaning on the side of the Steelers' experience to make this game closer than some might expect.
Houston's defense is going to make life difficult for the Steelers, even with DK Metcalf returning from suspension, but I think the Steelers defense gives C.J. Stroud issues as well.
History bodes well for Pittsburgh, too. The Steelers haven't lost a Monday night game at home since 1991, the Texans haven't ever won a road playoff game and lost both of their Monday Night Football games this season.
I'm still expecting Houston to eke out a win, but I won't be surprised if the Steelers find a way in typical ugly fashion on the back of a few key Stroud mistakes.
Davenport: Texans (-3)
This is a matter of the defenses for the two teams: Houston's may be the best in the entire NFL, while Pittsburgh's is flawed, especially against the pass.
The Steelers should be able to get some pressure on C.J. Stroud, but he should still be able to find open receivers down the field, while Pittsburgh is going to struggle to move the ball with any consistency.
The Texans are just the better team in this matchup, and barring a slew of Houston turnovers, this analyst has a hard time seeing a path to victory for the Steelers.
Predictions
Texans: Davenport, Knox, Sobleski
Steelers: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
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