San Francisco 49ers: Week 12 Rooting Guide and Predictions
The various playoff scenarios that come into play when a team is vying for a wild-card spot can get confusing—especially when there are so many teams in play. The San Francisco 49ers find themselves one game back of four separate teams in terms of wild-card positioning, and a surprising three games back of Arizona in terms of the division.
To make matters worse, not all of the games this week are straightforward, most notably the game between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. Do the 49ers root for the Seahawks to try to gain ground to still win the division, or do they root for Arizona to squash a wild-card contender’s hopes? The tiebreaking situation becomes nontrivial when you get to games like that.
There are 10 games in Week 12 that involve at least one NFC team, and thus impact the 49ers in some way for their playoff berth. This article will give you a brief rundown of who to root for in each contest, as well as the odds of such a team actually pulling off the win. It’s intended to give you a quick rundown on how each game specifically impacts the 49ers’ playoff hopes, so you can know where to invest your own hopes this weekend.
All times Eastern; all odds provided by Odds Shark.
Arizona Cardinals (9-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
1 of 9
Time: 4:05 p.m. on Fox
Point spread: Seattle -7
Root for: It’s Complicated…
There are four games this week that have major effects on the 49ers’ overall playoff hopes. The most important, obviously, is San Francisco’s own game against Washington, which we covered in more depth here. You probably do not need to be told that 49ers fans should root for the 49ers in the 49ers game.
Leaving that one aside, this battle between two NFC West rivals is clearly the biggest game on the schedule for the 49ers, and it provides a bit of a rooting conundrum.
Rooting for Arizona essentially means giving up on the division. If the Cardinals have a three-game lead with five to play, I don’t think the 49ers are going to be able to catch them. Remember, the 49ers already lost to the Cardinals back in Week 3, so even if they beat them on the last day of the season, they’re only going to split the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Cardinals currently sit at 2-0 in the division, and a win here would get them to 3-0. The 49ers already have two losses in division, meaning in all likelihood, they’d need to actually finish ahead of Arizona on record alone if the Cardinals were to win this game. Even the most optimistic of 49ers fans would find it hard to believe that the Cardinals would lose to three of Atlanta, Kansas City, St. Louis and Seattle, which make up the rest of their schedule. A win here essentially gives them the NFC West.
On the other hand, rooting for Seattle rejuvenates a wild-card rival at the worst possible time. With the Seahawks coming into Levi’s Stadium for a Thanksgiving night showdown, the last thing the 49ers want is for Seattle to be rounding back into form. Back-to-back losses against Kansas City and Arizona would put the Seahawks on the ropes. A win against Arizona pushes them right into the thick of the race, and that momentum has a way of building.
So who do the 49ers root for? Honestly, I think they back Seattle. It slightly reduces their playoff chances as a whole, but it does open a logical pathway to the division title outright.
The Cardinals, while obviously a good team, aren’t quite as good as their 9-1 record would indicate. They haven’t been dominating people like Green Bay has—they’ve been hanging in there and making the critical plays at the end of the game. They’ve yet to play a dominant game where they’ve put someone away before entering the fourth quarter. Football Outsiders records them as being the worst 9-1 team it's ever recorded, going back to 1989. Sure, it’s along the lines of being called the “world’s smallest giant” or something, but the wins and losses do overestimate the actual talent.
I’m not saying the Cardinals are going to miss the playoffs—far from it. More than any other team in the NFL, they can start printing the playoff tickets as we speak. It’s not entirely far-fetched, however, to imagine them losing to Seattle, followed by Kansas City and the giant-killers in St. Louis, potentially setting up a winner-take-all game in San Francisco in Week 17. While that possibility is alive, I think the 49ers have to be pulling for it.
Prediction: Seattle 24, Arizona 17
Tennessee Titans (2-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
2 of 9
Time: 1 p.m. on CBS
Point spread: Philadelphia -11
Root for: Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans’ season has been essentially over for weeks, as they’ve made multiple quarterback shuffles before ending up on Zach Mettenberger, their sixth-round rookie. They’ve shown a distinct inability to stop the run game, which doesn’t bode well when playing against LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles.
They’ve lost four straight games. In their last four road games, they’ve been outscored 114-48. The list of teams that have been demolished more than the Titans have is small—you’re probably limited to the likes of Oakland, Jacksonville and Carolina.
On the upside, they did play the Pittsburgh Steelers very tough on Monday night, taking the lead back after some early struggles. Had they managed to stop Le’Veon Bell even one time, perhaps they could have pulled off an upset there. In addition, the Eagles are coming off of an absolute drubbing by the Green Bay Packers, where they were thoroughly embarrassed in all aspects of the game.
Even so, the records don’t lie that much. The Eagles might not be as good under Mark Sanchez as they were under Nick Foles, but the raw talent of the two teams is tilted too far in Philadelphia’s direction, as is home-field advantage.
The Eagles falling back would be great news for the 49ers, because San Francisco controls the tiebreaker between the two clubs. Maybe hope for that to happen next week at Dallas instead, because it seems like quite a stretch to imagine Tennessee coming out on top here.
Prediction: Philadelphia 34, Tennessee 10
Dallas Cowboys (7-3) @ New York Giants (3-7)
3 of 9
Time: 8:30 p.m. on NBC
Point spread: Dallas -3
Root for: New York
Now, if you’re looking for a potential NFC East upset to move the 49ers back into playoff contention, this one is a bit juicier, if for no other reason than it’s on the road.
Yes, the Giants offense looked horribly out of whack against the 49ers last week, with Eli Manning throwing five interceptions. On the other hand, the Giants were in that game until the very end, despite Manning’s terrible, awful, no good, very bad day. The odds that Manning would have two such days in succession is very low, and if the offense can just be in the realm of competence, perhaps that will be enough to stop the Cowboys.
In addition, how do we really know Tony Romo’s back is OK? He didn’t practice on Wednesday, though he was a full participant on Thursday. If that flares up, the Cowboys would be stuck depending on Brandon Weeden on the road, which is never an ideal situation.
The fact of the matter is, however, that the Giants are giving up the most rushing yards per game and have to face the NFL’s leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. That, and that alone, should be enough to put Dallas on top.
The 49ers could catch one of the two NFC East teams with a loss, but that will likely have to happen next week when they play one another. If they are to catch one this week, though, it is more likely to be Dallas than Philadelphia.
Prediction: Dallas 23, NY Giants 21
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Green Bay Packers (7-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
4 of 9
Time: 1 p.m. on Fox
Point spread: Green Bay -10
Root for: Minnesota
Here’s your interesting fact of the day—if the 49ers win (going to 7-4) and either of the two leading NFC North teams lose (dropping to 7-4), the 49ers will control their own destiny for the top wild-card seed, rather than simply the sixth seed, as they have now.
See, the reason for this is that Green Bay and Detroit still have to play each other in Week 17, in a game which could, in theory, determine the outcome of the NFC North. In the worst-case scenario for San Francisco, assuming one of the two teams loses this week, that would feature one team at 11-4 taking on the other at 12-3.
If the 12-3 team wins, that means the 49ers (at a possible 12-4) would simply beat the loser due to a superior record. However, if the 11-4 team wins, a 12-4 49ers squad would still win the tiebreaker over the runner-up in the NFC North.
This is because the Lions and Packers would then be tied at 12-4, and the Lions would win the division either based on a head-to-head sweep over the Packers or a superior divisional record. The 49ers, with a potential 9-3 conference record, would then hold the tiebreaker over the Packers, who would be at 8-4.
The fifth seed is a big prize this year, too, as they get to play the NFC South champion, which is one of the weakest divisions in years. That’s not to say a win on the road at New Orleans, Atlanta or Carolina would be a gimmie, but it’s a better situation than traveling to Detroit, Green Bay, Dallas or Philadelphia. A loss by either Detroit or Green Bay, then, would be extremely valuable for the 49ers.
That’s not going to happen here, though, as the Vikings’ loss to Chicago essentially eliminated them from any serious playoff consideration. The Packers are looking toward the Super Bowl, while the Vikings are looking toward the draft. That rarely works out for the underdogs.
Prediction: Green Bay 27, Minnesota 10
St. Louis Rams (4-6) @ San Diego Chargers (6-4)
5 of 9
Time: 4:05 p.m. on Fox
Point spread: San Diego -4.5
Root for: San Diego
Even with their big win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday, the Rams are still out of any realistic playoff scenario you might draw up. Even if they were to win all of their remaining games and get to 10-6, you’re talking about a 50-50 shot, at best, of them ending up in the postseason.
On the other hand, they’ve shown that they can show up on any given Sunday and play teams tough—they beat the 49ers, they beat the Broncos, they beat the Seahawks and they hung in their quite well against the Cardinals, too. Of all the 4-6 teams—St. Louis, New Orleans, Atlanta, Chicago and Minnesota—I think the Rams might actually be the most frightening to play against at the moment. When they’re hot, they’re capable of playing with anyone in the league.
The odds of the Rams coming into any sort of tiebreaker scenario with the 49ers is remote, at best—but if they do, that Week 9 loss in San Francisco is a killer. The 49ers will be rooting for the Rams plenty down the stretch, as they take on Arizona and Seattle in the last three weeks, but one more loss would probably be for the best.
Prediction: San Diego 23, St. Louis 17
Baltimore Ravens (6-4) @ New Orleans Saints (4-6)
6 of 9
Time: 8:30 p.m. on Monday on ESPN
Point spread: New Orleans -3
Root for: New Orleans
What’s this? A scenario where the 49ers would root for an NFC team over an AFC team? This is an example of odd tiebreaker theater. It’s the kind of nerdy nitty-gritty tie stuff that rarely come into play—my favorite thing to break down in the world.
The only way the 49ers would be hurt by a Saints win is if they somehow end up in a wild-card tiebreak scenario. However, the NFC South is so bad that that’s remote, at best. If the Saints win out and get to 10 wins, they’ve already won the division. If they finish at 9-7, they’ve still probably won the division and are unlikely to be in playoff contention anyway. The Saints are almost as good as an eliminated team, when it comes to San Francisco’s point of view.
What a Saints win would do is up San Francisco’s strength of victory tiebreaker. This is the fifth tiebreaker in the division and the fourth in the wild card, so it’s unlikely to come up very often, but there are a few cases in which it could matter a great deal.
Most notably, the Saints beat Green Bay back in Week 8. If the 49ers and Packers end up tied, it could easily come into play. Both teams are currently 5-3 in conference, so that’s a dead heat. If they remain tied, it would go to the common games tiebreaker, which in this case would be games against Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Seattle. The 49ers are currently 2-1 against those teams, while the Packers have already finished at 3-2. The 49ers splitting games against Seattle would result in a tie there, as well.
That would bring to strength of victory, where wins by the Saints would help propel the 49ers past the Packers. Aren’t tiebreakers fun?
In any practical viewpoint, this game doesn’t matter that much, but you’d be kicking yourself if the 49ers sat at home this January based on a strength of victory tiebreaker, wouldn’t you?
Prediction: Baltimore 27, New Orleans 26
Cleveland Browns (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
7 of 9
Time: 1 p.m. on CBS
Point spread: Atlanta -3
Root for: Cleveland
While we’re talking about the NFC South, the fact that a team is guaranteed a playoff spot at the expense of one of the NFC’s top teams does seem a little ridiculous, doesn’t it? If it was just based on winning percentage throughout the conference, rather than division, then the 49ers would already be in playoff position. They’d be in good shape, too—rather than having to try to catch anyone, they’d just have to make sure they at least split with Seattle to be essentially in the postseason.
I don’t agree, however, with proposals that winning your division shouldn’t be enough to get you a guaranteed playoff spot. Because not every team plays every other team, it’s not really fair to compare across divisions like that.
Since your schedule is based almost entirely on your division, it makes the most sense for there to be a comparison between those four teams in question, first. It would be better if there were fewer, larger divisions, but the concept of divisions is one I’m really fine with. I’m not going to get too angry if the Falcons or Saints make it into the playoffs at the expense of the 49ers.
What they should do, however, is remove the division in terms of seeding.
A potential 7-9 or 6-10 NFC South winner should not be hosting a playoff game. Make the first tiebreaker in that scenario “did you win your division?” to give division winners some credit, but giving a team with a losing record a home playoff game just feels wrong.
Would there be some complaining if an NFC South winner with a losing record entered the playoffs, but only as the sixth seed? Well, whoever finished seventh would grumble, but it seems fairer to give a wild-card Green Bay a home game then it would to grant it to Atlanta. That’s just my two cents on playoff realignment—send Atlanta on the road to Green Bay in the Wild Card Round and justice will be done.
Prediction: Atlanta 27, Cleveland 24
Detroit Lions (7-3) @ New England Patriots (8-2)
8 of 9
Time: 1 p.m. on Fox
Point spread: New England -7
Root for: New England
I wrote that the 49ers are most likely to go to the playoffs at the expense of the Detroit Lions, and I stand by that—at least for the moment. Tough road games against New England and Green Bay make me feel that, even though they’re currently in a position to earn a bye week in the playoffs, they’ve got the best odds of drawing the short straw if the 49ers can make a run.
Their complete lack of anything on offense against Arizona—a great defense, mind you, but still—does nothing to engender confidence they can win on the road. Not with the Packers and Patriots rounding into form and looking like your most likely Super Bowl matchup at the moment.
The Lions know that all they have to do is go 5-1 to guarantee a playoff berth, and even 4-2 essentially gets them there. They are just victims of a very tough end-of-season schedule.
A loss here, like in the Packers game mentioned earlier, would give the 49ers control over the top wild-card seed. It is far more likely to happen here than it is in the Packers game.
Prediction: New England 27, Detroit 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) @ Chicago Bears (4-6)
9 of 9
Time: 1 p.m. on Fox
Point spread: Chicago -5.5
Root for: Tampa Bay
Don’t watch this game.
I mean, if you’re passionate about the fate of Lovie Smith, it might be interesting to see him take on his old team. It would be a bit of schadenfreude if Josh McCown could outplay Jay Cutler, as well, and schadenfreude is always fun.
I suppose, if the Bears win this one, they might find themselves with a pulse again. I think they’re pretty much dead in the water, but if they can somehow run the table, they’d finish at 10-6 with a 9-3 conference record. Add in head-to-head victories over San Francisco, Detroit and Dallas, and maybe they could win some tiebreaker scraps and sneak in at the end.
They’re not going to go 6-0. I’d be surprised if they went 2-4 from here on out, to be blunt. If you’re stuck in Chicago—like your humble writer is—and it’s the only game on in the morning, then I guess that gives you a rooting interest. But it’s not realistically going to matter.
Prediction: Chicago 27, Tampa Bay 20
Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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