5 Bold Predictions for the Washington Wizards During 2014-15 Season
Martell Webster is lost for the first month of the season with yet another back surgery. Then, Bradley Beal was lost for the first month, it not more, with a left wrist fracture.
And those are just two of the injuries the Washington Wizards have had to deal with this offseason. New acquisition Kris Humphries suffered a laceration on his hand, Glen Rice Jr. sprained his ankle, and veteran Paul Pierce tweaked his knee.
Oh, and Nene and DeJuan Blair will miss the season opener for an altercation earlier in the preseason against the Chicago Bulls.
If all of that doesn't sound that bad, there's plenty more to look forward to as the 2014-15 NBA season goes on.
The Eastern Conference is wide open once again and is considerably easier than the West. Despite all of these setbacks in the preseason, the Wizards still have a chance to make a statement a year after John Wall made his first postseason, and they upset the Chicago Bulls in the first round in convincing fashion.
Making the playoffs is expected for the Wizards this season given all of the talent on the roster, even with all the injuries, but there's still some unknowns about the season.
To look past these injuries in the immediate future, here's five predictions that should surprise Washington, and NBA fans in general, before the season comes to an end.
John Wall Will Finish Among the Top Two Backcourt Players in All-Star Voting
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For the first time last season, the NBA All-Star voting was broken down into frontcourt and backcourt voting, rather than by position.
The leading vote-getters in the Eastern backcourt were Dwyane Wade (929,542 votes) and Kyrie Irving (860,221).
With LeBron James and Kevin Love now on his team, it's a safe bet to assume a healthy Irving gets the No. 1 spot over Wade in this year's voting. His assist numbers should increase, and his team will be considerably better than it was.
But Wall will be right there to finish behind Irving in the votes. The obvious favorite besides Wall would be Derrick Rose. However, Rose has only appeared in 49 games in the past two seasons. There's simply no telling what his game might look like in the regular season.
For their careers, Wall has averaged 1.7 assists more per 36 minutes than Rose, 0.8 more steals and 0.5 rebounds, while Rose averages 2.8 points more per 36 minutes, per Basketball-Reference.com's player comparison tool. Rose's effective shooting percentage is also 3.7 percentage points higher than Wall's but their stats are closer than most people realize.
Wade's numbers will also drop off without James on his team, and if Wade's struggles continue from what we saw in the playoffs, he could be in trouble.
Bradley Beal also attempted 15.7 shots per game last season. While he is out, someone is going to have to absorb those attempts, and the easy candidate is Wall. Paul Pierce is more of a precision than a volume shooter, and those attempts Beal usually had around the perimeter, Wall will take at the rim.
This opens the door for Wall to be a statistical monster for the first part of the season, and if Rose misses any amount of time, I like Wall's chances to pick up the second-most votes in the East's backcourt come All-Star time.
Bradley Beal Will Average 20 Points Per Game
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In the three-point era of the league, only three players have ever averaged more than 17 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 40 percent three-point shooting in their second years in the league: Stephen Curry, Vince Carter and Bradley Beal, per Basketball-Reference.com's player season finder.
Despite the wrist injury, Beal should continue on this trend toward greatness and will find himself averaging more than 20 points per game.
Nineteen players averaged more than 20 points per game, including Rudy Gay, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas.
There's no reason why Beal can't have a similar season to the one Gay had last year.
In his third season, Curry's shooting percentage increased from 48 to 49 percent, and his three-point shooting jumped by 1.3 percent.
In his third season, Carter averaged more than 27 points per game on 46-percent shooting.
If Beal can just bump up that percentage to somewhere around 45 percent (which he can if he doesn't take as many mid-range jumpers), he can approach 20 points per game. He's going to be compensating for the loss of three-point shooting from Trevor Ariza, who left in free agency for the Houston Rockets.
Ariza attempted 5.7 threes per game last season and 11.1 field goals. Ariza's replacement, Paul Pierce, attempted four threes per game last season with the Brooklyn Nets and just 9.5 field goals. That leaves about two or three shots a game for Beal to pick up, and at least one three.
There's a scenario in play where Beal attempts Ariza-like numbers from three and 18 or 19 total shots per game (Carter took 22.7 shots in his third season). If that happens, which it probably will, Beal will flirt with being a 20-point scorer.
Nene Will Play Less Than 25 Minutes a Game
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Nene hasn't started every game in a season since the 2009-10 campaign and has seemed to suffer from a new injury this season. In the playoffs, especially against the Bulls in the first round, Nene was instrumental in the Wizards picking up a series win by making clutch mid-range shots at the elbow.
If Washington wants to make a run deep into the playoffs this season, they need Nene to be healthy and able to start games for them late in the season. As part of this, he'll likely be on somewhat of a pitch count given the depth at power forward.
The Wizards signed DeJuan Blair this offseason and retained Drew Gooden to play the 4. They also signed Kris Humphries, who can play both power forward and center.
Paul Pierce also played some power forward for the Nets last season and could move into the frontcourt if Otto Porter Jr. begins to blossom at small forward.
The gist of all this? Nene is going to play less minutes one way or another. Marcin Gortat played almost 33 minutes a game last season, meaning Humphries will be available to play the 4, and Kevin Seraphin is also still on the roster to come off the bench behind Gortat. Even if Humphries stays at center, Gooden and Blair are both capable of playing considerable minutes.
In order to limit his chance of injury, head coach Randy Wittman would be wise to put Nene on a Tim Duncan-like plan where he sits out on the second half of back-to-backs and will limit his minutes on the floor in the regular season.
Glen Rice Jr. Will Have a Better Season Than Otto Porter Jr.
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Heading into last season, all the pressure was on Otto Porter Jr. to impress after he was drafted No. 3 overall in the draft. He didn't live up to the hype.
This summer, with all the pressure off, Porter and last year's second-round pick Glen Rice Jr. dominated the Las Vegas Summer League, and Rice won the league's MVP award.
Rice is now playing with house money. Porter isn't. Rice isn't supposed to be here. Porter is.
And now with Bradley Beal out, Rice and Porter will likely both share time at shooting guard, especially with Porter practicing at the 2, according to J. Michael of Comcast SportsNet Washington.
But even after Beal is healed, Rice will have more of a role on this team than Porter, and Rice will finish with the better season.
In the summer league, both Rice and Porter averaged about the same minutes (32) and Porter took just one less shot than Rice. Yet Rice averaged four points more per game and more rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
Rice also opened up the preseason with a 6-for-8 shooting performance against the Bulls, and he pulled down seven rebounds in the next game against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Granted, Porter has had a solid preseason as well, but he was 1-for-10 from the floor in the same game against the Bulls and 4-for-10 in the most recent preseason game against New Orleans.
Rice also has a clearer path to playing time. Despite signing (via Marc Stein) veteran guard John Lucas III on Tuesday, Rice is still the clear backup to Beal, while Porter will have to contend for time with Pierce, a veteran, and Martell Webster when he returns.
The Wizards Will Finish as the No. 3 Seed in the East
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There's no doubt that with LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be the No. 1 seed in the East.
If they stay healthy, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson should secure the No. 2 spot for the Chicago Bulls.
Although I'm not completely sold on the Bulls given Noah and Rose's injury history, it seems as if those top two spots are taken for the Eastern Conference playoffs.
After that, though, the third seed is all about Washington.
When everyone is healthy, the Wizards are one of the deepest teams in the league in the frontcourt with Nene, Marcin Gortat, DeJuan Blair, Kris Humphries, Kevin Seraphin and Drew Gooden.
They also have one of the five best backcourts in the league in John Wall and Bradley Beal. Put all that together in the East, and you have a No. 3 seed.
The Indiana Pacers may not even be a playoff team with Paul George out for the season and Kyle Lowry is sure to take a step back this season after having a career year (coincidentally in a contract year as well) for the Toronto Raptors.
Besides the Raptors and Pacers, the only other competitors with the Wizards for that third seed prior to George's injuries were the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat.
The Heat are a very shallow team, even more so now that Josh McRoberts is dealing with toe and back injuries. If Dwyane Wade can't return to his 2012-13 form, the Heat are in serious trouble.
Charlotte could certainly surprise people and finish ahead of the Wizards, but Wall and Beal are a better backcourt than Kemba Walker and Lance Stephenson for my money. Al Jefferson also has too many injury concerns at a shallow center position for the Hornets.
If the Wizards can overcome this initial bout of injuries, they will win 48 or so games, which should be good enough for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and a spot just behind the Cavs and Bulls.
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