NBA Trade Deadline 2012: Predicting the Winners and Losers

Depending on which reports you subscribe to, the 2012 NBA trade deadline could either be one for the history books or one for the back page of Friday's sports section.

The reason for intrigue stems from the star power of the names being thrown around in the days leading up to Thursday's 3 p.m. ET deadline. Here's just a sampling of who may be available between now and then: Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Pau Gasol and Joe Johnson. That's 26 NBA All-Star appearances, 18 combined All-NBA selections and (thanks to the anti-Kobe Bryant sentiment of the mid-2000s) even two MVPs.

But for every report saying one of these superstars will be traded, there are 10 others saying he won't.

History suggests that most of these players will stay with their current clubs (the buildup to the deadline is often far more exciting than the deadline itself), but it's very possible that at least one will move. It seems every year there is at least one trade that surprises everyone (i.e., Williams' exit from Utah last season).

Teams have less than 48 hours to decide how good their chances are this season with their current rosters. In other words, teams have less than 48 hours to win or lose in basketball's annual swap meet.

The Winners' Circle

Winning at the trade deadline has many different meanings for NBA franchises. Sometimes it's best to stand pat with what's already there, with the added benefit of passing the deadline and the unrelenting trade rumors that accompany it. Or maybe the best route is to liquidate talented (and expensive) assets in return for younger talent, financial relief, draft picks or any combination of the three.

And, whenever possible, sometimes it's best to rob another franchise blind (Dale Davis and Speedy Claxton for Baron Davis, really?).

Each of the following five teams can win in their own way at this deadline.

1. Los Angeles Lakers: The aforementioned Gasol's name has been near the top of the rumor mill since the Spaniard was dealt to New Orleans before the start of the season in a deal ultimately nixed by commissioner David Stern. While Gasol has publicly handled the situation well, his career-low scoring numbers (16.6) suggest that the rumors may have effected his play.

But when Gasol dons the purple and gold Friday night against the Timberwolves, he'll do so with the confidence of the organization and the confidence of the fans in having the league's best frontcourt.

2. Indiana Pacers: The Pacers have used mid-lottery picks and lower (Danny Granger, Paul George), along with solid acquisitions through trades (Darren Collison, George Hill) and free agency (David West) to build one of the deepest rosters in the league. But if the team is able to find the scoring guard it has sought for a few years (O.J. Mayo or Jamal Crawford, perhaps), this team goes from top half of the Eastern Conference to legitimate conference championship threat.

3. New Orleans Hornets: Though the aforementioned Stern veto killed a deal that would have kept the Hornets from this steep of a slide this season, it's hard to argue that their resulting return offers a brighter tomorrow. If the Hornets are able to keep free-agent guard Eric Gordon and find quality players with both first-round draft picks, they have the potential to build one of the better young talented rosters.

With interest rising in Chris Kaman (and his $14 million expiring contract) the Hornets can either see what combination of young talent and draft picks they can get for the big man now or wait until the offseason when the expiring contracts of Kaman, Carl Landry and Marco Belinelli total over $25 million.

4. Phoenix Suns: It's hard to find a franchise with a darker NBA forecast than the Suns. At 19-22, they are on the peripheral of playoff hopefuls, yet house the NBA's fifth-oldest roster (28.8 years old). The young exciting players for the future are either 28 years young Marcin Gortat, the other Lopez twin (Robin) or late lottery pick Markieff Morris. And with over $25 million committed to Gortat, Josh Childress, Channing Frye and Hakim Warrick through 2014, their free agent options will be limited. 

Moving the 38-year-old Steve Nash (and possibly one or more of these contracts) for draft picks and/or young talent may not be the most popular move, but it'd be a big step in helping Phoenix move away from being the NBA's retirement home. 

5. Dallas Mavericks: The defending champs have undergone a massive overhaul since winning it all. Gone are Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson, replaced by the likes of Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Delonte West. But with all of this roster turbulence, the Mavericks are hoping for a calm trade deadline. Mark Cuban has managed to put a competitive (albeit not as talented) team on the floor this season without sacrificing his cap space this summer.

A quiet deadline means Deron Williams and Dwight Howard should remain primed to the hit the free-agent market in a few months. For Dallas, this would mark another step closer to assembling the league's latest big three, with talks of Williams and Howard joining Cuban and Dirk Nowitzki in Big D.

The Losers' Bracket

With all of the different ways that teams can win at the deadline, there are even more ways to lose.

And a loss at this junction typically spells disaster for this season, and sometimes, for many more to come.

Even standing pat cannot save a franchise from doom if their roster already has myriad problems.

This could be a very tough March 15 for these five.

1. Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith: If the Howard saga had 100 different scenarios, Smith probably loses his job in 95 of them. Even if he were able to bring in a secondary star (Monta Ellis and Steve Nash are the most likely), it's hard to imagine that's enough to convince him not to try to team with the superior Deron Williams this summer.

The smart move for Smith appears to be taking the high bidder for Howard to ensure the cupboard is not bare when (not if) Howard bolts, but owner Daniel DeVos appears ready to hang on to Howard no matter the repercussions. And if by some miracle Howard does stay, the big man reportedly decides if Smith stays or goes.

2. New Jersey Nets: Is there a bigger boom-or-bust situation in the NBA than the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets? In one scenario this summer, they convince Superman Howard to pair with Williams and establish the NBA's premier inside-outside combination. In another scenario, Howard lures Williams out of New Jersey/Brooklyn and the Nets make their move to the city headlined by...Brook Lopez? Marshon Brooks, maybe?

Nets GM Billy King desperately needs to find players to make the Nets more desirable to Howard...and Williams.

3. Golden State Warriors: With a half-full glass, the Warriors sit just three games out of the playoffs and four games out of sixth place. If that glass is half-empty, though, the Warriors are 13th in the Western Conference with the conference's second-worst home winning percentage.

The team brought in defensive-minded (rookie) coach Mark Jackson to bring a physicality to a small-ball finesse roster. Stephen Curry (when healthy) still doesn't seem like the right backcourt mate for Monta Ellis, yet both will likely be Warriors come Friday.

4. Atlanta Hawks: When Al Horford tore his pectoral muscle in mid-January, the Hawks' season looked lost. While they have managed to stay comfortably in the playoff picture (thanks in no small part to the Eastern Conference bottom-feeders), the Hawks' window of opportunity moved one year closer to closed. Even when healthy, this roster is unlikely to do better than a second-round trip.

So when Johnson's name (and ungodly contract), along with (perennially disgruntled) Smith's, appeared on the rumor mill, this seemed as good of time as any to pull the trigger. This may be their best chance at hitting the reset button before resetting their franchise to the cellar.

5. Washington Wizards: As bleak as the Phoenix Suns' future looks, the Wizards' future should be that bright. Headlined by last year's first pick, John Wall, the Wizards have amassed one of the premiere collections of young talent in the league. But with a whopping nine wins on the year (better only than the lowly Charlotte Bobcats), this is a team that looks collectively lost.

The Wizards may need to offer better than defensively-challenged Nick Young or perennial headcase Andray Blatche to lure back the veteran presence needed to bring some success back to the nation's capital.