Early NBA Season Award Projections
Believe it or not, we're already one quarter of the way through the NBA season. That means it's to the point where we can start considering who some of the various award winners might be.
Last year, the Chicago Bulls took home at least a share of three of the major postseason awards, including the big one, the Most Valuable Player Award, won by Derrick Rose.
It's unlikely they'll do so well again this year. They aren't sneaking up on anyone. Will they win any at all this year?
The following is a projection of where the various awards stand right now. These are my projections of who will win based on what happened. When considering the various awards, I include both objective factors and subjective factors based on how the media has portrayed what has happened.
Remember, the media determines the awards, so what they think and say is important, whether you agree with it or not.
Kelly Scaletta is and NBA and Chicago Bulls Featured Columnist, and one of the top NBA writers on Bleacher Report. He is trying to get better at twitter if you would like to follow him.
Executive of the Year: Neil Olshey
1 of 7Right now, Neil Olshey has to be the runaway winner for Executive of the Year. It's not just that he managed to beat out the crosstown Lakers to get Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers, it's that he did that and added Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups as well.
The new-look Clippers are in a tie for the lead of the Pacific Division and have a real shot at winning it. The Clippers are ready to turn history on its head.
Also in the running is Larry Bird of the Indiana Pacers, though he's a distant second.
Most Improved Player: Kyle Lowry
2 of 7Kyle Lowry is trying to break into the whole, "Who is the best point guard in the league?" conversation. While he's still not quite there, he's gotten right outside of it.
Lowy is averaging three more points (16.5) and 2.1 more assists (8.6) this season and has been breaking out in a major way as he leads the Rockets into playoff contention.
Ryan Anderson of the Orlando Magic could be argued to be more deserving. His PER of 23.8 is sixth-best in the NBA.
The reason right now I'm giving Lowry the edge is that he's perceived to be more of the team leader. Much of Anderson's success comes from playing off of Dwight Howard, whereas Lowry is setting up his teammates for their success.
Still, this one is a very tight race, and either player could win.
Sixth Man: James Harden
3 of 7This one comes down to James Harden and Louis Williams, and again, we have a very close call. Harden is averaging 16.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. Williams is averaging 15.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.
Harden's numbers are slightly better, and he also had the edge of being the media favorite to win the award coming in. Williams is giving him more of a challenge than expected and could pass him before the season ends, but for now, the preseason favorite is holding his own.
Coach of the Year: Tom Thibodeau
4 of 7Right now, Tom Thibodeau of the Chicago Bulls looks to be keeping a grip on the award. The Bulls holding the NBA's best record in spite of a litany of injuries is downright impressive.
The Chicago Bulls have had their starting five in the lineup exactly four games this season. They've had their full team together three games. They won a game with three of their top four guards out of the lineup. They won another with four rotation players, including Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson, out, as well as their MVP, Derrick Rose.
In fact, in all, the Bulls starters have missed 16 total games and regular rotation players have missed 27 total games due to injury. Thibs doesn't deserve to be the first coach to ever win COY in back to back years because Chicago has the best record; he deserves it because he seems to be able to turn anyone into a quality player.
My thought on teachers has always been this: If one student fails, it's because of the student. If everyone fails, it's the teacher. If one student excels, it's the student. If every student excels, it's the teacher.
The Bulls have the deepest bench in the league because apart from being a brilliant basketball mind who can teach defense by passing gas, he is also an extraordinary coach in developing players.
Other candidates that are nipping at Thibodeau's heels include Tyrone Corbin of the Utah Jazz, who has shocked the world by leading Utah to a 10-5 record. The Philadelphia 76ers' Doug Collins is also in the running.
On my basketball bucket list would be reviewing a game film with Collins and Thibodeau together. I could probably learn more about the game in two hours than I had in my whole life to that point. In my opinion, they are the two best basketball brains in the biz right now.
Rookie of the Year: Ricky Rubio
5 of 7This one is going to come down to a pair of point guards, Ricky Rubio or Kyrie Irving.
Statistically speaking, Irving has a slight edge over Rubio. While Irving is the better scorer, Rubio is the better passer. Both players, at a minimum, have met expectations.
| Kyrie Irving | 27.9 | .500 | .425 | .800 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 17.4 |
| Ricky Rubio | 32.3 | .399 | .406 | .803 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 11.0 |
Right now, I am giving a microscopic edge to Rubio for the simple reason that he's generated so much excitement. Irving's success has been more under the radar.
In fact, it's pretty surprising how little attention Irving is getting. I don't know that I've ever seen a first overall pick that was successful get less attention.
Rubio gets it right now simply because he's doing more to excite the media.
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard
6 of 7Dwight Howard wins Defensive Player of the Year, and it's not much of a contest. He's just the best defensive player in the world. This is the one award where there really isn't a contest who should win it. Howard will win his fourth consecutive DPOY Award, barring injury.
But what happens if Howard goes down? Who do you give it to then? Suddenly, it becomes wide open, and it probably comes down to a couple of small forwards, LeBron James or Luol Deng.
This might come as a shock, but right now, it's Deng leading the league in defensive win shares.
Furthermore, across the board, his advanced defensive numbers are better than those of James, though James holds the edge in the traditional stats.
| Player | OPER | Opp PPP | DRtg | Opp FG% | DWS | Stl | Bl |
| Luol Deng | 9.5 | 0.70 | 95 | 34.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| LeBron James | 10.1 | 0.96 | 96 | 43.9 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
It might sound insane, but looking at the numbers, you can make an argument that Deng has surpassed James as the best defensive small forward in the game.
Both James and Deng will also guard all five positions on the court at times. Both will routinely take on the toughest defensive assignment when crunch time comes around. James has the advantage of history on his side.
Deng has the advantage of playing on, and being the defensive cornerstone of, the best defensive team in the NBA.
If something were to happen to Howard, it would be a close race.
MVP: Kevin Durant
7 of 7Here, it comes down to Kevin Durant and LeBron James.
Derrick Rose has the downside of last year working against him this year. Last year, his frontcourt was injured, and he won in large part because he carried the team to the league's best record in spite of those injuries. This year, the team is carrying him in spite of his injuries, and in large part because of Thibodeau's coaching. He's not really a part of the conversation right now.
Kevin Love has been posting some impressive numbers, but team success does matter to the media, no matter whether you like that or not. Love is not going to win it.
This comes down to Kevin Durant or LeBron James. Statistically, it shouldn't be a contest. Statistically, this should be an absolute runaway. LeBron James is on his way to having arguably the single best NBA season in the modern history of the game. His PER of 35.2 is the best ever recorded.
Here are the per game stats of James, Durant and Kobe Bryant.
| Kobe Bryant | .454 | .267 | .843 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 30.4 |
| Kevin Durant | .492 | .338 | .815 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 26.1 |
| LeBron James | .572 | .474 | .726 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 29.8 |
The only real edge Bryant and Durant have here over James is that both have significantly better free-throw percentages, and Bryant has a slight edge in points.
James is the better rebounder than either of the other two and the better passer. He's also in contention for the Defensive Player of the Year.
For those who prefer the advanced stats and metrics, here they are.
| Kobe Bryant | 26.7 | .540 | .478 | 8.1 | 33.5 | 38.5 | 107 | 100 | 2.8 |
| Kevin Durant | 26.1 | .593 | .535 | 11.3 | 18.6 | 32.3 | 109 | 100 | 2.5 |
| LeBron James | 35.2 | .631 | .589 | 12.7 | 38.9 | 33.3 | 121 | 96 | 3.9 |
When you view the advanced stats, it shows clearly that this isn't even a race. James is far and away having the better season.
The reality is, though, that right now, he's in third place. The media's almost myopically deranged obsession with what happens in the last six seconds of the game gives Durant the edge right now.
Simply put, his game-winner over Dallas matters more than what happens in all the wins that James helps the Heat to get in the first 47:54 of the game. If James can have a singular, signature clutch game where he throws off the "LeChoke" label, he'll win it.
Barring that, though, the Durantula has the advantage of being perceived as a "winner," and that will give him the edge. He gets the nod over clutch because the further away we get from Bryant's 40-point streak, the more Durant becomes the favorite.
