I wrote about Alshon Jeffery last week in a profile of skill position players the Carolina Panthers should be looking at to help Cam Newton elevate the team to the next level.
Jeffery has the physical tools and the skill set to become a solid NFL receiver like his predecessor at South Carolina, Sidney Rice.
However, his stats in 2011 have fallen precipitously since his record-setting sophomore campaign in 2010 when many thought he was the best wide receiver in the SEC ahead of Georgia's A.J. Green and Alabama's Julio Jones, both of whom are playing well as top-10 NFL draft picks in their rookie seasons.
I like Jeffery as a big, athletic receiver with great hands, but he has a soft body and some would say he's got a bit of a weight problem for a wideout.
Skills-wise, he reminds me a lot of a young Brandon Lloyd in his circus-catch ability.
Now, before you go saying Lloyd was the NFL's leading receiver in 2010 and that he's doing pretty well since being traded to the St. Louis Rams, he had a very mediocre career with the San Francisco 49ers, the Washington Redskins and the Chicago Bears.
At 6'4" and 229 pounds, Jeffery is also much bigger than Lloyd, but big receiver busts have proliferated in the 21st century.
In fact, you have to look no further than the Detroit Lions.
Michigan State's Charles Rogers (No. 2 overall, 2003 NFL Draft) and Southern Cal's Mike Williams (No. 10, 2005 NFL Draft) both selected early in the first round by former Lions' GM Matt Millen were epic busts, though Millen finally got it right when he drafted Calvin Johnson second overall in the 2007 NFL Draft.
Jeffery is a hard worker who has maximized his talents to get to this position and it's hard to imagine him going the ways of Rogers or Williams, but few tall receivers come along with as much hype as the Gamecock's all-time leading receiver and wind up having careers like Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson.
The odds of Jeffery having a solid career are in his favor, but it's more of a long stretch that he'll step onto the field as a superstar in his first couple of seasons.
Bust Probability: 40 percent