NFL Power Rankings Week 13: Playoff Odds for Every Team

Matt MillerNFL Draft Lead WriterNovember 27, 2011

NFL Power Rankings Week 13: Playoff Odds for Every Team

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    It's time to update the NFL playoff picture with a look at all 32 teams and their chances for the playoffs. One team has been eliminated already—the Indianapolis Colts are out with their 0-11 record—but the other 31 teams are technically in contention.

    See where every team ranks as of today in our power rankings and find out what their chances at the postseason are.

32. Indianapolis Colts

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    Playoff chances: 0 percent

    The Indianapolis Colts have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, ending a nine-year postseason run.

    You can easily put the blame for the bad season on the loss of Peyton Manning, but this was a roster with many holes. Indianapolis wasn't a playoff team with Manning this year, and that much should be painfully obvious by now.

    The Colts can now focus on the offseason, where it's likely there will be a new head coach in place and most likely a new quarterback too.

31. St. Louis Rams

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    Playoff chances: <1 percent

    The St. Louis Rams are technically still in the playoff picture, but they won't be for long.

    The Rams' troubles are many, but it starts with bad draft picks and forecasting team needs. The Rams entered the season without a threat at wide receiver and with no depth in the secondary. Those two holes have bitten them in the ass.

    St. Louis has talent to build around, but this is a team in need of major renovations.

30. Minnesota Vikings

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    Playoff Chances: <1 percent

    The Minnesota Vikings cannot be happy about the 2011 season, but most thought this was a down year for the club anyway. That's been true, for sure, but there are good things to build on here.

    The Vikings have to focus on improving their offensive line heading into 2012, and they should be able to with a top-five draft pick. Making the right moves to support Christian Ponder—who has shown potential—is the key to the Vikings moving from being a bottom feeder to a contender.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars

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    Playoff Chances: 1 percent

    The Jacksonville Jaguars' season has been a massive disappointment, and the entire team is facing a major overhaul in the offseason. 

    Head coach Jack Del Rio is on his way out, the rookie first-rounder at quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) looks completely lost and the lack of a wide receiver is haunting the offense's growth. Fix those problems and you may have an 8-8 team next year.

    The Jaguars did well in free agency this past summer, and they could be aggressive again in making the changes needed to turn around the franchise.

28. Seattle Seahawks

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    Playoff Chances: 2 percent

    The Seattle Seahawks are still in the mix for a playoff spot, but to do so they'll need to play better than they did on Sunday in a loss to the Washington Redskins.

    Seattle has talent, but its lack of a quarterback and problems on the offensive line have ruined what's become a very good defensive roster. Marshawn Lynch is running like a man possessed, but without a passing game to threaten defenses, teams are loading the box against him.

    The Seahawks aren't far from being a playoff contender, but Pete Carroll needs a better option under center.

27. Cleveland Browns

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    Playoff Chances: <1 percent

    The chances of a postseason in Cleveland are bleak, to put it kindly. The Cleveland Browns continue to struggle, even when playing competitive football against a division rival.

    The Browns were close to pulling out a surprise win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, but once again their lack of protection and options for Colt McCoy was their undoing. Not to mention a secondary that was beaten bloody by Andy Dalton and A.J. Green in the second half.

    I'm not ready to throw the towel in on McCoy just yet. Let's see what he can do in year two of an offense and with NFL-level talent on the right side of the line and at wide receiver.

26. Arizona Cardinals

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    Playoff Chances: 0.5 percent

    The Arizona Cardinals were expected to compete in the NFC West this year once Kevin Kolb got comfortable in the offense. Trouble is, Kolb never got comfortable and has missed five games with injury. 

    The Cardinals will look to rebuild their offensive line through the 2012 offseason. It wouldn't be out of the question to see four new starters along the line next season.

    Arizona has to be happy with the play of Chris Wells at running back; he's giving them a true option outside of Larry Fitzgerald to make plays. Wells, Fitzgerald and a young defense should give them plenty to build around going forward.

25. Carolina Panthers

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    Playoff Chances: <0.1 percent

    The Carolina Panthers have the misfortune of playing in a very good division. With the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons both looking like playoff teams, the Panthers' chances are all but dead.

    A top-five pick in the draft is likely coming for Carolina again this season, but the team has to be absolutely thrilled with Cam Newton's rookie season. Now the trick is improving the talent around him to build up this team.

    Carolina needs to get healthy at right tackle—even if that means moving on from Jeff Otah—and keep adding weapons on defense. Finding better defensive tackles and getting healthy at outside linebacker will make a big difference in 2012.

24. Washington Redskins

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    Playoff Chances: 0.5 percent

    Mike Shanahan has a competitive football team, but the Washington Redskins aren't ready to be a playoff team and might not be for quite some time.

    Washington has to find a better option at quarterback, and that should be Shanahan's first move in the 2012 NFL draft. If a player like Robert Griffin III (Baylor) or Matt Barkley (USC) is available, the Redskins should pounce on him.

    Otherwise, this is a talented roster. I would like to see improvements at receiver and running back, but those are areas Washington can address later in the draft or through free agency. Daniel Snyder has never been shy about spending money; this might be the year to do so.

23. Miami Dolphins

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    Playoff Chances: 0.1 percent

    The New England Patriots are way ahead in the division, making Miami's hopes for a postseason grim. With a lame-duck head coach and no identifiable franchise quarterback on the roster, big changes are coming to Miami.

    If the season ended today, the Dolphins would be selecting No. 6 overall. That's a great position for a team with many needs.

    Miami should be looking at quarterback and maybe running back in the first round. If it can land Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley, it should do so. If both are gone, Alabama's Trent Richardson (running back) would be a nice option to team with a free-agent quarterback like Matt Flynn.

22. Kansas City Chiefs

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    Playoff Chances: 2 percent

    With seven losses on the season, Kansas City's hopes of making the playoffs will soon end. 

    Todd Haley's Chiefs have been horrible this season—dropping huge losses early in the season and struggling to meet expectations against a tough schedule. You can blame the losses on the injuries the team has suffered, but it's hard to see Scott Pioli believing Haley is the man to bring a ring to Kansas City.

    The Chiefs will look different in 2012 once they have Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry back. With a smart draft pick at right tackle or outside linebacker to aid the current players, I do think Kansas City is a playoff contender next season.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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    Playoff Chances: 1 percent

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 10 games in 2010 and were expected to be a playoff team in 2011. It hasn't happened, and major changes could be under way.

    I like Raheem Morris, and he deserves more time to get things turned around in Tampa, but he'll need to overhaul the roster this summer to make the playoffs next season. This is a talented group of core players, but the supporting cast is bad.

    Tampa has to be eyeballing offensive tackles this offseason and also finding a way to keep its defensive line healthy. Help at wide receiver for Josh Freeman would also be a welcome addition.

20. San Diego Chargers

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    Playoff Chances: 20 percent

    It's hard to imagine the San Diego Chargers having a shot at the playoffs, but in the mediocre AFC West, almost anything is possible at this point.

    San Diego has now lost six straight games—putting the future of head coach Norv Turner and general manager A.J. Smith into question. It's been said often that San Diego's roster is too talented for this many losses, and while true, the roster isn't as good as it was previously.

    San Diego needs to overhaul the offensive line, get help for Shaun Phillips at linebacker and improve the coverage in the secondary. With big salaries on the roster thanks to Philip Rivers, Marcus McNeill and Eric Weddle, the Chargers will need an excellent draft to contend in 2012.

19. Buffalo Bills

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    Playoff Chances: 2 percent

    The Buffalo Bills' playoff hopes continue to die, as they lost their fourth straight game this week—that makes them 1-5 since starting 4-1. Not good.

    Chan Gailey and his staff knew that this wasn't a great team when the season began, and we're seeing that now as the team struggles through the meat of the schedule and tries to overcome injuries to key players. What Buffalo is, though, is a contender.

    I am in the minority that likes Ryan Fitzpatrick. Give him a better supporting cast and Fitzpatrick can be a good NFL quarterback. As of now he's playing behind two tackles who should be backups and without much help at tight end or wide receiver—outside of Stevie Johnson.

18. Philadelphia Eagles

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    Playoff Chances: 7 percent

    Things don't look good for the Philadelphia Eagles. What was once the "Dream Team," the Eagles are suffering through a 17-week nightmare.

    Fans are calling for Andy Reid to be fired, assistant coaches are getting into shouting matches and Pro Bowl wide receiver DeSean Jackson was benched in the fourth quarter of the loss to the New England Patriots. The proverbial sh-t has hit the fan.

    Reid may not be in jeopardy of losing his job, but he'll need to fire most (if not all) of his assistants in an effort to get this team playing up to its potential.

17. New York Jets

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    Playoff Chances: 25 percent

    The New York Jets managed to win again on Sunday, beating the Buffalo Bills in a very close game. The win keeps New York on track for a chance at a wild-card seed, but it is on the outside looking in right now.

    The Jets are currently in fourth place in terms of wild-card positioning. With two teams receiving a wild-card spot, New York needs to make up ground in a hurry.

    The good news for the Jets is that their schedule is very winnable over the next five weeks—they face Washington, Kansas City, Philadelphia, the Giants and the Dolphins. Not quite a murderer's row.

16. Denver Broncos

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    Playoff Chances: 30 percent

    Much like the New York Jets, the Denver Broncos need to keep winning if they want a chance at the playoffs.

    Denver is currently third in the wild-card standings, but a fourth straight win definitely helped out its cause this week. The Broncos are still in the running for the AFC West, as well as the wild card.

    Unlike the Jets, the schedule may be a problem in Denver. The team faces the Vikings, Bears, Patriots, Bills and Chiefs to end the season. Winning three of those games seems likely, but that won't be enough to get Denver into the playoffs.

15. Tennessee Titans

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    Playoff Chances: 15 percent

    Another win this week keeps the Tennessee Titans competitive for a wild-card berth, but the team needs a lot of losses from the Jets, Broncos, Bills, Steelers and Bengals if it wants a chance at the postseason.

    Tennessee has been much better than I expected heading into the season, especially considering the lack of production from Chris Johnson through the first 11 weeks of the year. If Johnson can run like he did on Sunday, Tennessee has a shot to win out.

    Tennessee's next five games are as follows— Buffalo, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston. I'm willing to bet on Tennessee in four of those. That's good enough for a 10-win season. I'll call that a great season for Mike Munchak in his first year.

14. New York Giants

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    Playoff Chances: 15 percent

    The New York Giants have fallen out of the NFC East race thanks to their three straight losses. It's hard to believe, but it wasn't that long ago that the Giants looked like the best team in the East, now I'm not so sure they are in the Top 2.

    New York is in a win-out situation. With five games left they need to run the table if they have any hopes of overcoming Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta for the playoffs. As of this morning the Giants are one game back, and with a tough schedule down the stretch (including Green Bay this week), it's hard to see the running the table.

13. Detroit Lions

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    Playoff Chances: 45 percent

    It's not the fact that the Detroit Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday; it's how they lost that has me concerned and moving them down four spots this week.

    Losing to an undefeated team wouldn't normally warrant a big move down, but playing classless football and losing their composure does. Ndamukong Suh will be suspended at least one week for kicking an offensive lineman (or trying to kick him, at least), and the team still can't find a running back capable of staying healthy for more than two weeks.

    The Lions will most likely make the playoffs, but their ability to win a game there is very limited.

    Oh, and if anyone finds Calvin Johnson, send him back to Detroit. Megatron has been invisible lately, failing to go over 100 yards receiving in three straight games.

12. Oakland Raiders

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    Playoff Chances: 60 percent

    The Oakland Raiders aren't pretty, but they get the job done, and that's all that matters these days. With five weeks to go, the Raiders are in the driver's seat in the AFC West. Just win (baby) and the playoffs are a reality.

    Oakland's schedule is favorable for at least three more wins down the stretch. It'll take on Miami, Green Bay, Detroit, Kansas City and San Diego the rest of the way. You can pencil in Green Bay as a loss, but the other games are very winnable. That's enough for an 11-5 record and a division title.

    Al Davis should be smiling down on this team.

11. Cincinnati Bengals

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    Playoff Chances: 55 percent

    I will admit to loving the Cincinnati Bengals. I'm sincerely rooting for them to make the playoffs, even if they won't win a game once they're in. I'm a sucker for a good story, and the 2011 Bengals are a great story.

    A rookie quarterback leads the team to an improbable playoff season? It sounds Hollywood-esque, but Andy Dalton is doing magical things on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award—that is, unless his teammate A.J. Green gets the award.

    The Bengals are playing better than they ever did with Carson Palmer under center. This is a complete football team that could be dangerous if the offensive line can step it up.

10. Houston Texans

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    Playoff Chances: 90 percent

    It will take a collapse unlike anything ever seen in the NFL for the Houston Texans to miss the playoffs, but now that they are relying on a rookie third-string quarterback for the next five weeks, anything is possible.

    T.J. Yates didn't look terrible in Houston's Week 12 win, but the front office has to be looking at veteran options today just in case Yates does stumble down the stretch. With Matt Schaub on IR and out for the playoffs, Houston's hopes of a postseason run are limited.

    Credit has to be given not only to head coach Gary Kubiak, but also general manager Rick Smith and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips for the exceptional job this team has done.

9. Chicago Bears

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    Playoff Chances: 85 percent

    The Chicago Bears dropped a close game on Sunday with Caleb Hanie under center, but in doing so they showed that this is a tough, gritty team that has the talent to make a run this postseason, even with Hanie under center.

    It's worth noting that the Bears did not place Jay Cutler on IR, meaning he could be back in time for the playoffs (if not before). Hanie just has to manage the schedule and get Chicago three more wins over the next five weeks.

    The next five games for Chicago—Kansas City, Denver, Seattle, Green Bay and Minnesota—are favorable to the Hanie-led Bears. The stout defense of Chicago should deliver four wins down the stretch.

8. Dallas Cowboys

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    Playoff Chances: 80 percent

    Winners of four straight games, the Dallas Cowboys are getting hot at the right time and putting the rest of the NFC East in their rear-view mirror.

    Dallas has a stout running back, three excellent wide receivers and the NFC's best tight end. Put those things together with a smart head coach and nasty defensive coordinator and you have a contender. Dallas is for real, folks.

    The Cowboys might not have the firepower to keep up with the Green Bay Packers, but you can bet the Cowboys will make noise in January if they can get consistent play from Tony Romo.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

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    Playoff Chances: 95 percent

    Why do the Pittsburgh Steelers move down after surviving a late-game run by the Kansas City Chiefs? Because they had to survive a late-game run by the Tyler Palko-led Chiefs.

    The Steelers played horribly on Sunday night, and if they show this same effort going forward, it would be a surprise to see them last through the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Already trailing the Baltimore Ravens in the standings due to their head-to-head record, Pittsburgh can't afford to play bad football again this year.

    Fans will tell you that a win is a win, and while that's true, it has to be alarming to see how poorly the team played on Sunday night.

6. Atlanta Falcons

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    Playoff Chances: 70 percent

    If the season ended today, the Atlanta Falcons would be the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. Not a bad positioning at all considering the talent in the NFC this season.

    Atlanta's schedule is very favorable over the next five weeks; it faces the Houston Texans (with their third-string quarterback), Carolina, Jacksonville, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. The Falcons should win four of those, and maybe all five.

    The game to highlight is the Week 16 matchup with New Orleans. The Saints hold the tiebreaker right now due to their Week 10 win. Atlanta needs to win this one if it wants a shot at a home game in the playoffs.

5. New England Patriots

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    Playoff Chances: 98 percent

    With a two-game lead in the AFC East and a three-game winning streak, the New England Patriots are looking very good at the right time. Another run in the playoffs is all but guaranteed.

    Many may complain that the Patriots are ranked ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who just beat New England in Week 8. Since that loss to the Steelers, New England has gone 3-1 and looks like a powerful, dominant team. Based on how bad Pittsburgh has looked since then, I'm comfortable having the Patriots above the Steelers.

4. New Orleans Saints

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    Playoff Chances: 96 percent

    The New Orleans Saints looked great on Monday night, and I'm sure I'll get some hate mail for moving them down one spot, but as the 49ers move down and Ravens up, the Saints simply get lost in the shuffle.

    I like what the Saints are doing, and if there is any team in the NFL who can hope to keep up with the Packers, it's New Orleans.

    The Saints will most likely be the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, meaning they'll be looking at the Bears, Falcons or Lions in Round 1. 

3. San Francisco 49ers

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    Playoff Chances: 99.9 percent

    The San Francisco 49ers can clinch a playoff berth with a win this week. Facing the St. Louis Rams should guarantee the 49ers will be in the playoffs in 2011.

    San Francisco makes a small move down this week after losing a tough game to the Baltimore Ravens—nothing to be ashamed of. If you had told anyone before the season that the 49ers would be 9-2 right now, they should have laughed at you. But here we are, and the 49ers look damn good.

    Jim Harbaugh's team has to be a little worried about how easy it was for the Ravens to disrupt its entire offense with the pass rush. The scheme needs to be better, as does the execution, if the 49ers are going to make a playoff run.

2. Baltimore Ravens

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    Playoff Chances: 95 percent

    If history holds true, the Baltimore Ravens will lose this week. Each time the Ravens have won a big game this season, they've lost the next week. Hopefully they've learned their lesson and won't overlook the Cleveland Browns in Week 13.

    Baltimore makes a big move up this week after knocking off the San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving Day with a crippling pass rush that threw off the 49er offense. In a low-scoring affair Baltimore proved it can win without Ray Lewis and take over a game with its defense.

    The Ravens will be very hard to beat going forward. There's a great chance they win out and take the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

1. Green Bay Packers

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    Playoff Chances: 99.9 percent

    With 11 wins and no losses, the Green Bay Packers are one win away from clinching the playoffs. At this point, the Packers would have to lose the rest of their games—and even then they'd be a likely wild-card team—to miss the postseason.

    Aaron Rodgers has to be the league MVP for the historic year he's having. Green Bay will be a tough out for anyone once the playoffs start. With the NFL's most takeaways coupled with Rodgers' efficiency, Green Bay will be heavily favored in every game—regular season and postseason—the rest of the way.

     

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