Chicago Bears' Road to the NFC Playoffs: Difficult but Not Impossible

At 2-3 and coming off a nationally-televised embarrassment on Monday Night Football, it’s easy to pile on the Bears. And an angry rant coming off a loss isn’t always a bad thing.

In the Motor City, the Lions sported an offense of Corvettes and Mustangs while the Bears sputtered along in a Pinto in need of a transmission.

The Lions couldn’t take over the game, thanks only to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.

But the Bears defense looked ancient. When they weren’t too slow, they were out of position. Mostly both.

Chicago was clearly concerned about Calvin Johnson. And Megatron is a Transformer alright—he changed the game. It wasn’t just his 73-yard touchdown. That was big. But the fear of him was bigger and had a larger impact.

For example, the Bears were so worried about Johnson they ignored Jahvid Best. And Best made them pay. The linebackers and secondary went for the turnover, trying to strip the ball; Best went for the touchdown.

And just like that, Chicago has lost three of their first five games.

Staring up at undefeated Green Bay and Detroit is daunting. Can the Bears bounce back? Is there any hope of a playoff spot?

Surprising as it seems: Yes.

Here’s how…

A Soft Schedule

Let’s just pretend the Bears are the above-average team we thought they were going into the season. Assume they’re underperforming for a litany of reasons but in the end aren’t as bad as they’ve played.

If you’re still with me, seek immediate help.

And know that of the Bears remaining 11 games, six are against teams with losing records, including four of the last five games. So a strong finish isn’t out of the question.

Remaining Games:
Vikings (1-4)
Buccaneers (3-2)
(bye)
@Eagles (1-4)
Lions (5-0)
Chargers (4-1)
@Raiders (3-2)
Chiefs (2-3)
@Broncos (1-4)
Seahawks (2-3)
@Packers (5-0)
@Vikings (1-4)

So far, of the 16 teams in the conference, nine have at least four wins (GB, DET, NO, SF) or four losses (PHI, MIN, CAR, ARZ, STL).

So the crowd in the middle—seven teams—are fighting for two playoff spots.

Those seven are: WAS (3-1), NYG (3-2), TB (3-2), DAL (2-2), CHI (2-3), ATL (2-3) and SEA (2-3).

One NFC East club will end up the division winner. DET or GB will snag the other wild card spot.

And that leaves one remaining spot for six teams.

Teams with nine wins will be reliant on tiebreakers, making it all the more imperative the Bears don't slip up against Tampa Bay or Seattle (and even more important that they beat Atlanta).

It will likely take 10 wins to ensure that final place. 

10 Is the Magic Number

It’s a bad sign when your Week 6 game is a “must win” against a team that’s just 1-4, but that’s where the Bears find themselves.

To finish 10-6, the Bears must win eight of the final 11 games—a tall order. They still have a chance because of their schedule.

Victories against the Vikings, Buccaneers, at the Eagles, Lions, Chiefs, at the Broncos, Seahawks and at the Vikings add up to the needed eight wins.

This assumes losses to San Diego, at Oakland and at Green Bay. Those games are winnable too, especially the Raiders, but tough matchups.

Getting eight more wins requires a sweep of the two games against Minnesota, even though Adrian Peterson often saves his best for Chicago. And that makes this Sunday night’s contest critical.

It also means the Bears have to beat Tampa Bay (3-2) and a talented Eagles team. However, the bye week offers them plenty of time to prepare for Michael Vick, who they’ve contained in the past.

If Chicago can dismiss Kansas City, Seattle and Denver (as they should), a revenge victory against Detroit at home is the difference between nine wins and 10.

Really?

Whether the Bears deserve to be in the playoffs is a different question.

But six teams will compete in the postseason and any of them could get hot and win it all.

In fact, it was the 10-6 Packers who landed the final wild card spot and still won the Super Bowl last year.

Difficult? Yes.

Likely? No.

But not impossible.