Odds Andrew Luck Will End Up on These 25 NFL Teams

Matt SteinCorrespondent IISeptember 21, 2011

Odds Andrew Luck Will End Up on These 25 NFL Teams

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    Ask anyone who the top draft pick in the 2012 NFL Draft will be and 99 percent of people will tell you Andrew Luck, quarterback for the Stanford Cardinals.

    A few weeks ago, our own Matt Miller did a fantastic in-depth analysis of how Luck compared to Peyton Manning coming out of college and all signs point to this kid being an absolute star. In fact, Luck graded out better than Manning, which is quite the accomplishment.

    Even though we are only two weeks into the NFL regular season, it is never too soon to speculate who will land this special player. Here are the odds that these 25 teams will end up with Andrew Luck.

1-1 Teams with 0 Percent Chance

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    The following list is of teams that currently sit at 1-1 and "technically" could lose every game for the rest of the season and end up with the first overall pick. I could also "technically" play running back for the Kansas City Chiefs (too soon?), but let's be real, it just isn't happening.

    Anyway, here is that list I was talking about:

     

    Baltimore Ravens
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Oakland Raiders
    San Diego Chargers
    Dallas Cowboys
    Philadelphia Eagles
    New York Giants
    Chicago Bears
    New Orleans Saints
    Atlanta Falcons
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Arizona Cardinals

     

    No real surprises from the teams above, as nearly half the teams are expected to make the playoffs this year. 

0-2 Teams with 0 Percent Chance

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    Even though the following two teams have yet to win a game, I firmly believe that they will start winning soon.

     

    Carolina Panthers

    This young team appears to be on the brink of winning their first football game. They fought hard against the Arizona Cardinals and had an early lead against the Green Bay Packers before folding in the second half. Even their defense looks good without their star player Jon Beason.

    On top of that, Carolina already has Cam Newton who appears to be a star in the making.

     

    St. Louis Rams

    I really thought that the Rams were going to be the team to beat in the NFC West and even though they are currently 0-2, I still think they are the most talented team in their division. Once Steven Jackson gets back from injury, this offense should really start clicking.

    Similarly to the Panthers, the Rams already have a stud young quarterback in Sam Bradford, so drafting Andrew Luck doesn't make much sense.

1-1 Teams with Little to No Chance

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    While some of the following teams are pretty bad, I just didn't feel confident giving them a zero percent chance at ending up with Andrew Luck.

     

    Cincinnati Bengals at a One Percent Chance

    Many thought that the Bengals were going to be a complete train wreck this year, but they have been very competitive through their first two games. Cedric Benson appears to be back on track and Andy Dalton is proving that he can win games.

     

    Cleveland Browns at a One Percent Chance

    The Browns are a very similar team to the Bengals and I really think both teams will end up with around six or seven wins this year. Peyton Hillis is continuing to play strong football and Colt McCoy looks like a true franchise quarterback.

     

    Tennessee Titans at a Two Percent Chance

    The main reason that the Titans have such a low chance at landing Luck is because of how bad the AFC South is this year. They should be able to beat the Indianapolis Colts twice and win their other game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Throw in another two or three lucky wins and Tennessee is out of the sweepstakes for the top overall draft pick.

     

    Denver Broncos at a Two Percent Chance

    It hurts to put the Broncos on here because they really need a young quarterback like Andrew Luck. However, Denver's defense is going to be tough this year and Kyle Orton is good enough to squeak out a couple wins.

San Francisco 49ers

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    Current Record: 1-1

    Odds to End Up with Andrew Luck: Five Percent

    As much as we would all love to see Andrew Luck reunited with Jim Harbaugh, it just isn't going to happen. 

    Don't get me wrong, this team isn't an elite team, but I don't think they are going to be as bad as everyone thought. Alex Smith is playing respectable football right now and their defense hasn't been too bad.

    If Frank Gore could get going, they might actually have a shot to win their division.

Minnesota Vikings

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    Current Record: 0-2

    Odds to End Up with Andrew Luck: Five Percent

    It was tough to give the Minnesota Vikings this low of odds to get Luck because they have blown leads in both their games and easily look like the worst in the NFC North.

    However, the reason that I am only giving them five percent odds is because of Adrian Peterson. I know that Donovan McNabb looks really old, but Peterson is the best running back in the league and is good enough to get a couple wins all by himself for this team.

    Once McNabb settles down, and I'm going way out on a limb to say that he will, the offense will be consistent enough to hold onto some leads and win games.

Miami Dolphins

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    Current Record: 0-2

    Odds to End Up with Andrew Luck: 10 Percent

    It's true that Chad Henne has put up some surprising numbers so far this year, but that has yet to turn into a victory. For me, the problem isn't with the offense, but with the defense that is giving up nearly 500 yards a game to go along with 30 points.

    They have been torched by the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans and it has been mainly through the air. What is very concerning about this is the fact that the Miami Dolphins secondary was supposed to be very strong this year.

    In spite of their poor play, Miami's defense was one of the better units in the league and should get their problems figured out soon. As long as the offense doesn't become completely anemic, I see this team winning enough games to get out of the top five draft picks.

Indianapolis Colts

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    Current Record: 0-2

    Odds to End Up with Andrew Luck: 12 percent

    You may be wondering why I only have the Indianapolis Colts with 12 percent odds to land Luck. Well, the reason is is that I think Peyton Manning will come back from injury and lead his team to some late victories.

    If Peyton doesn't come back, then the Colts' odds shoot up to about 85 percent because this team is bad without Manning. I've said this before, but Peyton probably deserves to win Most Valuable Player this year.

    I'm really hoping that Manning comes back because I don't know if I'll be able to handle my wife talking about how great a quarterback Andrew Luck is in about five years.

Seattle Seahawks

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    Current Record: 0-2

    Odds to End up With Andrew Luck: 13 percent

    As bad as the Seattle Seahawks have been so far this year, I actually believe they will get worse before they get better. They will probably drop to 0-4 before Tarvaris Jackson, Sidney Rice and Zach Miller all get it figured out.

    The defense hasn't been too terrible. In fact, the defense has played pretty well considering how poorly the offense is playing and how much time it is spending on the field. They should continue to make enough plays to keep Seattle in games while the offense figures things out.

    After that poor start, the Seahawks will begin stringing some victories together and finish around 5-11. They might have the fourth or fifth overall pick when it's all said and done, but they absolutely won't have the top pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars

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    Current Record: 1-1

    Odds to End Up with Andrew Luck: 24 percent

    The Jacksonville Jaguars are a bad, bad team and I don't mean bad in a good way. No, I mean bad in the worst kind of way. I'm sorry if I'm being too honest, but I don't see a reason to beat around the bush with this one.

    Whoever thought that Luke McCown and his 1.8 quarterback rating was better than David Garrard needs to get out of this business because they have no place here. It was an awful performance on both sides of the ball for Jacksonville and there was nothing positive for this team to build on for the future.

    The race for Luck is really down to only two teams and Jacksonville only slightly misses out right now because they technically still have their best player in Maurice Jones-Drew.

Kansas City Chiefs

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    Current Record: 0-2

    Odds to End Up with Andrew Luck: 25 percent

    You kind of knew this was coming, didn't you?

    I'm just going to quickly name off some key statistics of the Kansas City Chiefs: 0-2, 10 points scored, 89 points allowed, one lost superstar.

    Things were looking bad after a Week 1 blowout to the Buffalo Bills, but it just got worse in Week 2 for the Chiefs against the Detroit Lions. Not only did they get beat by a mere 45 points, they also lost Jamaal Charles who is without a doubt their best player.

    Kansas City just looks horrid right now and they will need to improve greatly to lose the top spot in the race for Mr. Luck.