6 Points for the New York Jets: A Touchdown's Worth of Predictions for 2011

Step right in folks, it’s a touchdown’s worth of predictions for the upcoming New York Jets' season. 

The NFL season is only a week old, but the Jets have been all over the headlines, re-signing some of their big names and bringing in some even bigger ones. 

If the Jets' free agency moves are any sort of an indication, this season should be wilder than Rex Ryan at an upscale women's shoe store. 

1. The Success of the Jets' Defense Will Have Nothing to Do with Their DBs

Here is a problem with football fans in general. 

They see the names of Pro Bowlers available, and they then morph into baseball fans who cheer for their team to win on paper because that actually does win their team a World Series.

What football fans often forget is that good pass-defense has always started and ended with a good pass-rush; it wouldn’t matter if Zeus lined up alongside Darrelle Revis. If a NFL quarterback has more than five seconds to scan the field, he’s going to complete a pass—unless he’s Derek Anderson, in which case pass completion is still listed as questionable for Sunday.

The Jets rely on linebacker blitzing, which sometimes works, but they need to be able to generate more pressure on the ends. If Muhammad Wilkerson impresses in the preseason, there is a great chance he will start opposite Shaun Ellis and an even greater chance he will eventually replace the 35-year-old veteran. 

It’s easy to get lost in the free-agency dance, but don’t forget that a great all-around defense starts and ends with the line, even in a 3-4.

2. The Jets Will Really Miss Brad Smith

I think Jeremy Kerley is going to be a very good special teamer for the Jets. I also know that the Jets plan to use him in a wildcat role. 

But I can't recall a time in the last decade where the Jets underutilized a player to the degree they did Brad Smith.

In spite of the fact that he was underutilized, Smith became one of the most dangerous gadget players in all of football. But because of how conservative the Jets’ offense has become, particularly since the arrival of Rex Ryan, they apparently forgot Smith was one of the best option quarterbacks in the history of college football. 

Kerley certainly brings the running and receiving threat to the position, but what made Smith dangerous was that he could pass the ball very well—and I have a sinking feeling the Bills are going to utilize that, particularly if they can find a way to get him in the same backfield as C.J. Spiller.

To me, the loss of Smith is significantly harder to handle than the loss of Braylon Edwards, but here’s to hoping Kerley will exceed all expectations.

3. Mark Sanchez May Not Make the Pro Bowl, but Shonn Greene Will

Last season, Shonn Greene entered games in awkward situations. Many of his rushing attempts came after LaDanian Tomlinson was stuffed, and it was particularly interesting to see Greene seldom used at the goal line. 

But it’s been made clear Greene will be the starting back this season, and because he didn’t get a tremendous amount of carries last season, his legs will be good to go. 

Greene has several luxuries that will help him this season. First, he will be running behind a solid offensive line, and one of two tremendous fullbacks in John Connor and Tony Richardson. Additionally, Greene has a very good corps of wide receivers who not only take attention away from him, but also run-block significantly better than most other teams.

Should Greene stay healthy, he should cruise to a 1,000-yard season or more, and his first Pro Bowl berth. Rashard Mendenhall's and Peyton Hillis’ legs being reduced to pencil shavings last season should also help Greene’s case.

4. Plaxico Burress Will Be the Comeback Player of the Year

Here’s some food for thought: The 2011 season will mark the first time since Burress was in his early 20's that opposing defenses will not treat him like he is the No. 1 threat on the field. Santonio Holmes is the standout receiver in this fleet and will merit No. 1 receiver attention.

But Plaxico Burress is in tremendous shape, has terrific hands and is one of the tallest receivers in football.

It didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out Holmes was Mark Sanchez’s favorite target last season, and opposing defenses know that too. Now Burress is literally going to waltz into a situation where defenses won’t be paying nearly as much attention to him, despite the fact that he is probably going to be the healthiest he has been his whole career, having done nothing football-related the last two years. 

I’m not going to make many friends by saying this, but Plax is a gigantic upgrade over Braylon Edwards and should be a terrific end zone threat this season.

5. Not Getting Nnamdi Asomugha Is the Best Thing That Could Have Happened

I wrote this column in a specific order, exclusively to emphasize this point. The following things have happened because the Jets didn’t sign Nnamdi Asomugha:

1. The Jets immediately started renegotiating with Antonio Cromartie, who was terrific for the Jets last season.
2. The Jets filled multiple holes in their offensive line, re-signing Wayne Hunter and Robert Turner. 
3. The Jets signed Plaxico Burress.
4. The Jets signed Muhammad Wilkerson, whom they hope will ignite the pass-rush.

Over the next week, the Jets will continue to build their roster, hopefully signing another defensive end, a nose tackle, a receiver, a corner and a safety. All of this will be able to happen because the Jets did not sign Asomugha.

Because of our passion, us Jets fans tend to be forgetful. But please remember that the Jets’ secondary was not the reason why they lost in two straight AFC championship games, nor was it the exclusive reason they got there in the first place—the Jets didn’t even have Cromartie the first year they did it. 

They were simply able to get tremendous pressure on opposing quarterbacks, particularly in 2009.

Now, they have the financial flexibility to be able to get back to that. And if they do it successfully, people will forget about Asomugha in no time.

6. The Jets Will Go 12-4 and Win the AFC East

The Patriots have certainly made splashes this offseason, but Albert Haynesworth doesn’t solve the personnel issues the Pats continue to have on the defensive end.

Even though the Jets lost in embarrassing fashion to the Patriots in the regular season last year, they won when it counted, and that’s because they were able to get pressure on Tom Brady all game and because they were able to control the tempo offensively. Had they not treated that victory like it was the Super Bowl, perhaps they wouldn’t have been asleep at the wheel for the first half in Pittsburgh. 

I sense this team being hungrier than ever before, with the most talent they have ever had. The conference race will be close all season between the Jets and the Patriots, but I anticipate the Jets squeaking by in the end due to their defense being able to seal them an extra game or two.

This all depends on them being able to control the tempo of the game. In the last two years, they have done it regularly. If they can do it this season, it's theirs to lose.