2011 NFL Predictions: 15 Surprise 2010 Stars Who Won't Meet Expectations in 2011

Every NFL season, fans are treated with those unexpected stars that help their teams succeed.  A shrewd fantasy football owner will be able to find these guys before any of his or her buddies and help guide their team to a championship.  It might be an undrafted rookie, or a struggling veteran that somehow puts it together, we see it every season.

Last season didn't disappoint as we had new stars emerge while others, such as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Randy Moss, each had their own struggles, some more so than others.

The question is what happens to these unexpected stars?  Are they the future of the league, or was it a one-year flash of greatness followed by mediocrity? 

Listed here are 15 players that surprised us all last year, but when the 2011 season comes rolling around, they will not enjoy the same success. 

*It should be noted that with the free-agent frenzy and roster overhauls taking place, some of these players may end up on different teams in the next several days.

15) Chad Greenway, Minnesota Vikings

Notable 2010 Stats: 144 total tackles (fourth in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat His Success

Chad Greenway has been a solid player for six seasons as a member of the Minnesota Vikings, but in 2011, he became one of the NFL leaders in total tackles with 144.  In 2009, he had under 100 and his previous career high was 115.  

No one is arguing Greenway is not a good NFL player.  Ultimately though, his career statistics say his 144 tackles may very well be an aberration. 

14) Jabar Gaffney, Washington Redskins

Notable 2010 Stats: 65 receptions, 875 yards receiving.

Why He Won't Repeat His Success

Jabar Gaffney is a player who, before coming to Denver, had toiled between a seldom-used fifth receiver and a slot receiver in Houston and New England.  Though not achieving a high level of success anywhere else, Gaffney set career highs the last two years in both receptions and receiving yards.

He benefited from the emergence of another new talent,  Brandon Lloyd, and a pass-happy offense led by Kyle Orton. 

Though Gaffney is a capable receiver, it's unlikely he will continue to set personal receiving records.  Between his age and the fact that Tim Tebow is unlikely to put up the impressive numbers Orton set last year. 

*NOTE*  Gaffney was traded around 3:45 p.m. today to the Redskins.

With Gaffney now going to the Redskins, it appears likely his numbers will take an even bigger drop as Washington has only John Beck on their current roster. 

13) Jason Babin, Tennesee Titans

Notable 2010 Stats: 12.5 sacks (sixth in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Jason Babin is a player who almost defines the notion of a player that comes out of nowhere.  In seven previous seasons, Babin had played for four other teams and had only 17.5 career sacks.  However, in his first season with the Titans, Babin had 58 total tackles and an impressive 12.5 sacks, easily a career high.

While it's possible Babin has found his rhythm, the problem is, just as he was enjoying success, the team has a new coaching staff and is still recovering from the turmoil that led to the departure of longtime coach Jeff Fisher and former first-round stud Vince Young. 

At 31, time is likely running out for Babin to be a star in this league.  Fans root for a guy like Babin, but his career numbers tell you that his 2010 season might be the most we see from him. 

12) Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notable 2010 Stats: 3,451 yards, 25 touchdown passes (10th in the NFL), 95.9 rating (seventh amongst full-time starters), six interceptions (second amongst full-time starters).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

When Josh Freeman was drafted in the first round by the Bucs in the 2009 draft, many experts said that Tampa had made a mistake.  Many said they took Freeman way too early in the draft and he was a big potential to be a bust.

All Freeman did in his first full season is be one of the more proficient passers in the entire league and guided Tampa from one of the worst teams in the league to a playoff contender.

With such a great season, Freeman can almost only go down.  And I believe he will to a small degree. 

Between playing against the NFC North and AFC South, they also have four more games against Super Bowl-contending New Orleans and Atlanta.  Coaching staffs have also had plenty of time to find any holes in his game.  Lastly, it's very rare a quarterback can throw fewer than seven interceptions per year consistently.  Not even Drew Brees and Peyton Manning could throw that few last year.

Freeman will likely be a solid NFL quarterback in this league and could very well be a star.  But for the 2011 season, it should surprise no one if he takes a small step back.  

11) Santana Moss, Washington Redskins

Notable 2010 Stats: 93 receptions (fourth in the NFL), 1,115 yards receiving (10th in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

There is perhaps no better (or worse, depending on your perspective) soap opera in the NFL than the Washington Redskins.  No matter what they do, drama always ensues.

In 2010, it was the further career destruction of Albert Haynesworth, and the awkward relationship between Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb.  Between the drama, injuries and an overall weak roster, the Redskins limped their way to another unimpressive finish.

Because of this, no one realized just how good a season Santana Moss had last year. 

Despite a sub-par year from McNabb and Rex Grossman—of all people—finishing off the season, the 11-year veteran set a career high in receptions, and second-most receiving yards.  Overall, he was one of the best receivers in the league last year.

Moss was one of the bright spots in a dark season in D.C.  The problem is, at 32 and with no quarterback on their roster other than John Beck (after McNabb is traded or cut), it's unlikely Moss will be able to repeat these solid stats of last year. 

10) Jacob Tamme, Indianapolis Colts

Notable 2010 Stats: 67 receptions for 631 yards. 

Why He Won't Repeat Success

There may have been no better example in the NFL last year than a guy who came out of nowhere to become a big contributor.  In two previous seasons, he had six career receptions.  He entered 2010 as a backup but life changed pretty quick when star tight end Dallas Clark got injured for the season. 

Instead of going towards other targets, Peyton Manning went for Tamme immediately, and the two had great chemistry.  Tamme finished the year with 67 grabs for 631 yards and four touchdowns.

Through no fault of his own, Tamme won't be repeating these numbers next year if he remains with the Colts.  Clark is bound to come back which puts Tamme back as a backup.  While he'll surely have more grabs than he did prior to 2010, his 67-catch performance will likely not be repeated. 

9) James Starks, Green Bay Packers

Notable 2010 Stats: (Playoffs) 81 carries, 315 yards and one touchdown.

Why He Won't Repeat Success

There was no bigger surprise in the NFL playoffs last year than James Starks.  A 2010 sixth-round draft pick, Starks was looked at as nothing more than a potential third-string running back.  When starter Ryan Grant got hurt in the first game of the season, it was up to Brandon Jackson to shoulder the load with John Kuhn providing a lot of 3rd-down carries.

As the regular season ended, Starks only ran the ball for 101 yards.  Overall, the running game was far and away the weakest part of the Packers team. 

Despite hardly seeing the field during the regular season, something clicked for Starks and the Packers in the playoffs, as he ran the ball 81 times (52 times more than in the regular season) for 315 yards in the playoffs.  It was a storybook ending to the Packers' season and for Starks personally.

It was a great tale for him in 2010, but the problem is, the backfield is quite loaded heading into the 2011 season.  The curious thing about Starks is he will almost certainly exceed his statistics from the 2010 regular season, yet will be seen as having a letdown after his spectacular playoff performances.

Though Starks outperformed him in the postseason, Brandon Jackson did run the ball for over 700 yards last year.  Ryan Grant is returning from his injury, and John Kuhn proved to be a valuable asset on 3rd-and-short situations last year. 

The question is where does that leave Starks?  Will he be the guy we saw dominate in the playoffs, or will he return to his role as the fourth-string running back?  The answer is while his regular-season numbers will eclipse those from 2010, he will likely only the run the ball as many times this year as he did in his four playoff games. 

8) Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers

Notable 2010 Stats: 735 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Prior to 2010, Mike Tolbert was best known as a fullback, a special teams player and a guy to catch some balls out of the backfield from quarterback Phillip Rivers.  But when an injury to rookie hopeful Ryan Matthews occurred, someone needed to step up and no one did that better than Tolbert. 

He annihilated his personal record in rushing yards and was one of the best running backs in the league last year around the goal line.  It was truly a career year for the four-year veteran. 

The problem is twofold though for Tolbert moving forward.  He's a free agent and likely won't be given any sort of starting role in the league.  If he does stay in San Diego, the Chargers want Ryan Matthews to be their franchise running back.

Tolbert has shown himself as a great threat inside the ten yard line, and I expect him to be able to get between five and eight touchdowns wherever he ends up.  But I seriously doubt he'll repeat his 735 yards and 182 carries. 

7) Paul Posluszny, Jacksonville Jaguars

Notable 2010 Stats: 151 total tackles (third in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Paul Posluszny is a player that had a ton of potential coming out of the linebacker school that is Penn State.  Despite flashes of excellence, Posluszny could not consistently stay on the field.  Though he missed two games last year, he had by far the best season of his career while playing for a defense searching for an identity.

Just yesterday, Posluszny bolted the cold lands of Buffalo for the warmth of Jacksonville, where he'll be expected to put up the dominant numbers he displayed last year.  Between the new surroundings, and his injury history, it's unlikely the former Bill will repeat his 2010 success. 

6) Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs

Notable 2010 Stats: 27 touchdown passes (eighth in the NFL), seven interceptions (tied for third amongst starters), 93.0 rating (eighth amongst starters).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Matt Cassel has been a case of Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde the past three years.  He had a great 2008 season with New England which led to his lucrative signing with Kansas City.  However, in 2009 he struggled, throwing as many touchdowns—16—as he did interceptions.   

That all changed in 2010 though, when Cassel set career records in touchdown passes and interceptions with just seven.  His great play led to the Chiefs winning the AFC West.  

So which Matt Cassel will we see in 2011?  My guess is we'll see one that's between Jekyll and Hyde, which I suppose will make him Dr. Jekyde?

The Chiefs now will have to play every team that played in the 2010 championship games this year as well as the Patriots and Colts.  The Chargers are due to be better this year as well.  Cassel is a good quarterback and deserves to be a starter, but he will most likely come back down to earth in 2011.

5) DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins

Notable 2010 Stats: six interceptions (tied for third in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

DeAngelo Hall was the example of the veteran who came out of nowhere to have a very strong season with 95 total tackles and six interceptions.  Ever since Hall had left Atlanta, he had been viewed as a huge disappointment in Oakland and, to a lesser extent, Washington.   

On paper, Hall had one of the best seasons in the league for a cornerback.  But once you take a more in-depth look of those statistics, you realize that Hall could thank Bears quarterback Jay Cutler for those impressive numbers.

To this day, Cutler nor anyone on the Bears staff can explain why he kept throwing at Hall in their Week 7 matchup, but the stubborn quarterback insisted he could best Hall.  By the time the game ended, Hall had picked off four passes, returning one 92 yards for a touchdown.

Following this game, Hall still contributed in terms of tackles but he did not have another interception.  It's those final nine games that tell you that Hall will not likely have as strong a season when he takes the field in 2011. 

4) Cameron Wake, Miami Dolphins

Notable 2010 Stats: 14 sacks (third in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Cameron Wake was one of the few great stories for the Miami Dolphins last year.  The former Canadian Football League outcast came to the Dolphins in 2009 and had a fair season with 5.5 sacks. 

In 2010 though, Wake took the league by storm, getting 14 sacks and was a constant thorn in the side for quarterbacks last year.  The question is can he sustain that success? 

At 29, the time is now to see if Wake can be the next great pass rusher, or if 2010 was just a flash in the pan for him.  The concern is he only had 5.5 sacks the second half of the season, and none in his final three games.  Was he hurt?  Did opponents finally study and figure him out?

For these reasons, I just don't see Wake putting up the same numbers as he did.  The fact that he is on a team going through a ton of coaching drama heading into this year will probably not help matters. 

3) Arian Foster, Houston Texans

Notable 2010 Stats: 1,616 rushing yards (first in the NFL), 16 rushing touchdowns (first in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Heading into the 2010 season, Arian Foster was a very chic pick in many fantasy drafts as there was a lot of buzz that this guy could come out of nowhere and be a good contributor for the Texans.  I doubt, though, you'll find many people who believed that Foster could be the best running back in the NFL.

From Week 1 on, when he went through the Colts defense like a hot knife through butter, Foster was the best running back in the league. He ran for over 1,600 yards, had 16 rushing touchdowns and helped make the Texans offense one of the most exciting in football.

Yes, 2010 was great for Foster.  But the odds are he will not repeat his dominance.  No running back since the great LaDainian Tomlinson has had the most rushing yards in consecutive seasons in 2006-07. Moreover, the running back position is the hardest to predict for consistent success as injuries are a constant issue, not to mention much of the league now relies on a two-running-back system. 

In fact, Foster got his opportunity as the featured back because teammate Ben Tate went down with a season-ending injury before the year had even begun.  With some more complements in the backfield this year, it's unlikely Foster will be able to achieve the kind of league-leading dominance he enjoyed last year. 

2) Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns

Notable 2010 Stats: 1,177 rushing yards (11th in the NFL), 11 rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth in the NFL).

Why He Won't Repeat Success

Your cover man of Madden 12, ladies and gentleman: Peyton Hillis!  In the game's first-ever fan vote to decide who'd grace the cover, Hillis beat 31 other stars, and you can understand why by watching his highlights from last year. 

Hillis epitomized being a Cleveland Brown: a blue-collar runner playing for a blue-collar kind of town.  He did not lead the league in many statistics, but the guy came to play every Sunday and was a bright spot for a team that struggled through yet another season.

Prior to 2010, Hillis was a running back who was overshadowed by Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas in college and guys like Knowshon Moreno when he was with the Denver Broncos.  He was unceremoniously traded to the Browns for Brady Quinn and was looked at as a backup.

However, Hillis surprised everyone and became a stud running back.  The question, of course: Is this a trend?  Or will he fall back into the pack more?

Of all the people on here, he may have the best opportunity to succeed as the Browns roster of running backs is very thin.  However, with a new coaching staff in place, it is anyone's guess to see if he meshes to a different scheme.  Additionally, with Colt McCoy now in his second season, the leash may come off of him, giving Hillis fewer chances to shine. 

1) Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles

Notable 2010 Stats: 100.2 rating (fourth amongst NFL starters), 3,018 yards passing in just 12 games. 

Why He Won't Repeat Success

There was no bigger comeback story than that of Michael Vick.  Thought of as merely a backup to Kevin Kolb, it's now Kolb who will be leaving Philly as we enter the 2011 season.  Vick's numbers aren't up to par with those of the other elite quarterbacks, but then you realize he played in four fewer games.  Had he thrown for his 252-yard average those games, he would have been fifth in the league with 4,026 yards.

His performance last year against the Redskins, in which he threw for 333 yards, ran it for 80 more and accounted for six touchdowns, was something made of legends.  For much of the season, Vick looked like a legitimate MVP contender.

The concern for Vick, though, is not only his injury history but the fact opponents seemed to adjust to his style of play towards the end of the year tells me his short of reign of dominance may be at an end.  I don't expect him to be as inconsistent as he was in Atlanta, but his quarterback rating was over 100 just one time in his last seven games including a so-so performance in his loss to the Packers.

Vick will surely be a good starter in the NFL, but statistically speaking, I would expect him to fit in right around where Eli Manning is, not his legendary brother Peyton.