2011 NFL Predictions: Setting Rookie of the Year Odds for the Top 25 Rookies

This list ranks the Top 25 rookies that will be battling for the two Rookie of the Year honors, featuring player-by-player analysis and the current Vegas odds. 

The Associated Press began issuing the NFL's Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year Awards in 1967.  

It is a prestigious award players strive for.

Well, most players.  A grand total of zero offensive linemen have won the award.  The same number of tight ends have been selected.  

Those positions will not be included in this review, as they don't have a viable opportunity to win the award.

On the defensive side, all positions have been recognized.  Linebacker has dominated the award as of late, taking nine of the last 11 trophies.

The Detroit Lions have a history of high draft picks to lead all franchises with seven total awards.  The Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars have yet to have a player selected, and 2011 doesn't look like a promising year for any of them to notch their first.

The odds for each player will be tainted by the frequencies below, but not significantly (aside from the aforementioned exclusion of OL and TEs).

Offensive Rookie of the Year
	Running Back:	31
	Wide Receiver:	8
	Quarterback:	5
Defensive Rookie of the Year
	Linebacker:	23
	Defensive End:	8
	Def. Tackle:	6
	Cornerback:	6
	Safety:	2

There is an extra DROY due to co-winners in 1980 (Buddy Curry and Al Richardson, LBs, Atlanta Falcons).

Jimmy Smith, CB, Baltimore Ravens: 10:1 Odds

I still like the pick of Jimmy Smith for the Ravens.  I believe he will develop into a solid pass defender at the CB position.

However, Smith may not be starting in 2011.  

The Ravens have a murky picture at the position, as players will be returning from injury and they have a few free agents to sort out.  

Unless both Chris Carr and Josh Wilson leave, Smith will have at least part of the season to get up to speed before seeing starting duty.

Prince Amukamara, CB, New York Giants: 10:1 Odds

Amukamara is in a position similar to that of Jimmy Smith.  

CB wasn't a strong need for the Giants in 2011, but Amukamara's potential to grow into an elite CB was too much for them to pass on with the 19th selection.

Amukamara will likely see a lot of time in nickel packages, but he may not be able to crack the starting 11 in '11.

Marvin Austin, DT, New York Giants: 18:1 Odds

As long as I'm on the Giants, I'd like to throw in a bit of a long shot that could very well end up walking away with DROY honors.

I liked Austin as an option for the Seattle Seahawks at the end of Round One.  The fact that the Giants were able to snag him at the end of Round Two was a huge coup.

Austin is a tremendous talent and will be stepping into a position of need for the Giants—particularly if they are unable to re-sign Barry Cofield.  

If he can elevate his pass rush in the NFL, he'll be getting some votes from the AP writers.

J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans: 15:1 Odds

Watt and Robert Quinn were both listed at 15:1 odds.  

I've excluded Quinn from consideration because he is not expected to be a starter in St. Louis as a rookie; he was drafted to be James Hall's replacement, and that won't likely happen in 2011.

Watt will fill a need for the Texans and should be stepping into a good situation.  The Texans figure to be competitive in 2011, and Watt could help their cause.  

Houston needed help on their defensive line, and Watt should provide help in run and pass defense.  I still think they should have drafted Cameron Jordan, though.

Aldon Smith, DE, San Francisco 49ers: 12:1 Odds

The 49ers have many needs with their defensive line—and they could get bigger if they are unable to keep Aubrayo Franklin in town.

Smith was a bit of a surprise pick this early, but the 49ers were thinking pass rush and evidently feel this is the best option for them at DE.

If he is utilized and can perform, he will be in a position to make a strong statement in 2011.

Ras-I Dowling, CB, New England Patriots: No Line

While I thought Dowling should have received a little more recognition as a potential first round draft pick, most analysts and fans didn't see it.  

Bill Bellichick did.

Dowling is walking into an ideal situation in New England.  The Patriots have talent on defense, but need someone to step up at CB.  

Dowling is a speedster that could turn out to be as good at Patrick Peterson.  His draft status was hindered by injury issues.  If he can stay healthy for a 16-game regular season schedule, he will make some noise for DROY.

Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 18:1 Odds

Bowers may have dropped down draft boards because of health issues, but he should be just fine his rookie year.  

Either Bowers will be perfectly healthy, or he'll know he needs to soak everything up that he can in a shorter time frame in the NFL.  

Either way, Bowers will be ready to show he is capable of success in the NFL.

Cameron Jordan, DE, New Orleans Saints: 15:1 Odds

I'm still not certain how Cameron Jordan was available for the Saints.  

There couldn't have been that much confusion with Jordan Cameron, could there?

Jordan should have been drafted much higher but was left for New Orleans to fill their biggest area of need on the defensive side of the ball.  

Other teams will live to regret letting the Saints draft him.

Jordan could step in and make a huge impact in their pass rush.  With the talent he'll have around him, he could make a name for himself in the NFL as a rookie and bust into DROY consideration.

Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos: 13:2 Odds

I've been fairly open about not liking Miller with the second pick.  

While he may adapt just fine, he won't be playing the position he is best at.  This will likely keep him from reaching his full potential, even if he plays well.

There isn't room to leave some of Miller's talents off the field and still walk away with DROY honors, though.  

He may make a push, but I don't expect him to be too close in the final rankings.

Marcel Dareus, DT, Buffalo Bills: 15:2 Odds

The biggest thing Dareus has going for him (aside from not having the pressure of being the first defender selected) is he'll be playing next to Kyle Williams.  

Dareus should be able to make an impact for the Bills immediately, and will be in the thick of the consideration for the top rookie.

Nick Fairley, DT, Detroit Lions: 13:2 Odds

The decision to place Fairley second among the DROY hopefuls was hardly an easy one.  

While I believe the person that is first on my list will do the most, it is hard to ignore the situation that Fairley is walking into.

Fairley will fill an opening on the defensive front, but he'll have a lot of talent around him.  

That will make it difficult for opposing teams to run the ball; if Fairley can generate a consistent pass rush he will likely move to the top defensive rookie spot.

Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals: 3 to 1 Odds

It isn't just the high draft selection that puts Peterson at the top of the list of defenders.  

Nor is it his immense talent.

Peterson takes this spot over Fairley because he is walking into a perfect scenario on defense.  The Cardinals should have a very good pass rush in 2011, which will help make Peterson a bit more opportunistic.  

Cornerback is difficult to step in and play well as a rookie, but Joe Haden was able to do it for the Browns last season.  

Peterson should do the same, and with the potential on defense for the Cardinals, he figures to be the top rookie in '11.

Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, RBs, New England Patriots: 15:1 Odds

The mere presence of two rookie RBs in New England makes it difficult to get excited about either of them having an inside track to ROY honors.

Vereen looks like the top option for Bill Belichick, but he will likely end up splitting carries in 2011, as most backfields will.  

This will make it less likely for either in this duo to come out on top.

The new state of RB by committee in the NFL will likely continue to reduce the occurrence of RBs winning this award.  

After dominating early voting, RBs have been named ROY in just two of the last eight seasons.

Ryan Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals: 18:1 Odds

I wouldn't bet a stranger's money on Williams making the Top 10 for offensive ROY.

The Cardinals are currently without a QB and are shy four starters on the offensive line.  

Unless they pull a major rabbit out of a helmet once free agency starts, there simply won't be any running lanes for Williams.

Mikel LeShoure, RB, Detroit Lions: 12:1 Odds

LeShoure should get some extra consideration simply because he plays for the Lions.  

They will look to add their first offensive ROY since Barry Sanders in 1989.

The Lions are on the rise, and LeShoure could be a solid back to share duties with Jahvid Best in the backfield.  

However, Best's presence could also make it difficult for LeShoure to command the number of carries he will need to take top honors.

Titus Young, WR, Detroit Lions: 15:1 Odds

Young moves ahead of LeShoure simply because he'll have more opportunities in the passing game.  

He will need to unseat Nate Burleson from the number two receiving position, but if the Lions were happy with what they were receiving from their big free agent signing they wouldn't have been as likely to draft Young so high.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: 16:1 Odds

The Dolphins drafted Thomas to continue their history of a strong ground attack.  

Thomas could end up being the feature back, and the Dolphins could also field a solid offensive line, making it easier for Thomas to find holes.

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: 13:2 Odds

Green would be at the top of my list—if the Bengals had an established option at QB.  

They are likely going to look to Andy Dalton to start, though.

If Green is able to put up ROY numbers catching balls from Dalton, the odds are that the QB would get the nod for the top offensive rookie, not Green.

Thus, Green's only real hope to earn the honors is for Carson Palmer to change his mind and return (which isn't likely to happen) or for Mike Brown to convince a top free agent at QB to join his dysfunctional family (again, not very likely).

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: 15:1 Odds

Should Dalton be handed the reins to the Bengals' offense, he could see success as a rookie.  

Chad Ochocinco and A.J. Green provide solid receiving targets, and Andre Caldwell showed solid capabilities after Terrell Owens was lost for the season.

The Bengals will need to make a signing at the RB position, but Dalton should be able to provide some numbers if given the starting duties.

Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans: 16:1 Odds

This list is a week to ten days premature for Locker.  

Based on the Titans' current staff, Locker has a great opportunity to step in and find success as a rookie QB.

Tennessee has a solid offensive line, with Chris Johnson carrying much of the burden on offense.  

The Titans still need a boost at WR, but Locker starting on this offense would be one of the better scenarios.

The biggest obstacle for Locker is the anticipation that the Titans will sign a veteran free agent to tutor Locker and try to get the Titans into the playoffs in 2011.  Prior to the draft, I had forecast the Titans drafting Locker and signing Matt Hasselbeck to a two-year contract.

If I was a betting person, Locker would make sense at 16:1 odds.  

Should the Titans fail to sign a top free agent QB to challenge him for the starting role, those odds only figure to get worse.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers: 11:2 Odds

While Vegas is putting Newton on the top of the odds chart, he isn't the odds-on favorite to start the season at QB for the Panthers.  

This will make it a bit harder for him to be successful.

Or will it?

Newton's best opportunity to take this award would be for Jimmy Clausen to start the season and not perform well.  

Any positive performances from Newton the rest of the season would set him apart from Clausen and other offensive rookies.

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons: 11:2 Odds

Jones has two looming issues to winning the offensive ROY.  

First, he isn't likely going to be the best WR entering the NFL in 2011.

Of bigger concern will be Jones running in second position behind Roddy White.  While he will be a great compliment, his presence is likely to improve the receiving marks for White and possibly Tony Gonzalez, who will look to rebound from reduced numbers in 2010.

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints: 15:2 Odds

Ingram rises to the second position on this list mostly for the position he will find himself in.  

Being the best RB in college football last season doesn't hurt, but that simply isn't enough to earn top rookie honors.

The Saints still had a high-powered offense in 2010 despite the lack of established healthy running backs.  

Chris Ivory filled in nicely for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, but an upgrade at the position would be welcome.  Look for Ingram to provide just such a boost. 

Christian Ponder, QB, Minnesota Vikings: 10:1 Odds

Ponder opened at 14:1 odds and has seen his stock continue to rise.  

More will be known about his potential to earn top rookie honors when free agency gets under way.

The Vikings will attempt to come to terms with Sidney Rice, but they will be challenged to do so.  He could be the most sought-after free agent, as he'll be just 25 when the 2011 season starts.  

If Ponder is teamed up with Rice and Percy Harvin, not to mention the Vikings' potential at offensive line, he could have the opportunity to run a prolific passing offense.  

Of course, the presence of Adrian Peterson won't exactly hurt Ponder's fortunes.