Fantasy Football Impact: Kevin Kolb to the Seattle Seahawks

One of the hottest rumors of the summer has been Seattle’s proposed offer of a first- and third-round draft selection in the 2012 draft in exchange for Kevin Kolb.  With such a strong offer potentially on the table and a very clear need for a franchise quarterback, I am going to explore with you what Kolb’s value would be should the deal happen.

Let me start by saying, Seattle’s version of the west coast offense is an excellent fit for Kolb’s quick decision making and accurate short range arm.  It is a better fit, in my opinion, than the version of the same offense that Reid has run over the past two years that has included longer down-the-field throws to DeSean Jackson.   I believe the stronger fit could translate into a slightly higher fantasy point total—but I will stick to the fantasy data points that we have for this prediction.

Kevin Kolb Compares Favorably to Tony Romo

While Kolb-haters will be quick to point out that we don’t have a large sample of his work to go from (and that is true), we do have a six-week sample if we combine both 2011 and 2010.  That sample compares very closely to a sample that I have pulled from Tony Romo—a quarterback who I believe is Kolb’s closest existing fantasy comparison.  Take a look:

KOLB	DATE	OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	TD	INT	FP	FP/OPP
	10/03/11	Redskins	22	35	201	1	1	12.633	0.57
	10/10/11	49ers	21	31	253	1	0	14.349	0.68
	10/17/11	Falcons	23	29	326	3	1	28.758	1.25
	10/24/11	Titans	26	48	231	1	2	13.623	0.52
	09/20/10	Saints	31	51	391	2	3	24.903	0.80
	09/27/10	Chiefs	24	34	327	2	0	22.791	0.95
ROMO	DATE	OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	TD	INT	FP	FP/OPP
	09/12/11	Redskins	31	47	282	1	0	15.306	0.49
	09/19/11	Bears	34	51	374	1	2	18.342	0.54
	09/26/11	Texans	23	30	284	2	0	21.372	0.93
	10/10/11	Titans	31	46	406	3	3	31.398	1.01
	10/17/11	Vikings	24	32	220	3	2	25.26	1.05

Kolb’s Stats Suggest that he is a Tier 3 or 4 Fantasy Football QB

Generally speaking, quarterbacks who are scoring between 18 and 22 fantasy points per week are going to sit in Tier 3 of most fantasy football quarterback rankings.  Scoring above 22 fantasy points per week will drop you into the elite realms of Tiers 1 and 2.  Clearly, neither quarterback is playing at a high enough level to maintain a steady Tier 1 or 2 point production in this sample—but they do jump up to that level on occasion.

A Tier 3 fantasy football quarterback should also post greater than 0.75 FP/OPP (fantasy points per opportunity). Elite options in Tiers 1 and 2 will score 1.0-plus.

In my early season rankings, I clearly put Tony Romo into Tier 3.  If Kolb lands a starting job in Seattle (or Arizona) than I am going to put him into the lower rung of Tier 3 as well, based on the data above.

For additional info regarding the stats that I use for fantasy football rankings, please visit Gridiron-Guru.

A Closer Look at Seattle

With all of this love being thrown around, where is the downside?  Good question. Seattle ranked near the bottom of the league in every offensive rushing category in 2010.  Marshawn Lynch should help in 2011, but he is not a silver bullet.  The Seahawks also need stronger play from their offensive line.  They failed to impose a physical presence during the first half of the year, and they struggled to stay healthy throughout the year.

Also, the Seahawks could use a strong WR1 or WR2. Seattle is not devoid of talent at the wide receiver position, however.

NAME	REC	TAR	YDS	TD	FP	FP/OPP	REC/TAR
Mike Williams	65	110	751	2	152.1	2.34	59%
Ben Obamanu	30	50	494	4	103.4	3.45	60%
Deon Butler	36	70	385	4	98.5	2.74	51%
Brandon Stokley	31	43	354	0	66.4	2.14	72%
John Carlson	31	58	318	1	68.8	2.22	53%
Golden Tate	21	38	227	0	43.7	2.08	55%

Every fantasy football gamer who played last season will know about Mike Williams' turn-around season.  He lacked touchdowns (as did the Seattle offense as a whole) but he saw an impressive 110 targets.  Both Ben Obamanu and Deon Butler emerged as legitimate threats, with Obamanu becoming an interesting gamble at WR3 during the last few weeks of the fantasy football season.

Should Golden Tate grow and add to the passing attack in his sophomore season—this core is good enough to post quality fantasy stats for the team's passer.

A problem that most fantasy experts are not diagnosing, was Hasselbeck’s inaccuracy.  Only two of Seattle’s top-six pass-catchers hauled in more than 60 percent of the footballs thrown in their direction. That is not a number that inspires confidence, and I believe it will be the nail in the coffin that sends Matt Hasselbeck out of town for the upcoming season.  

While he can blame the mediocre play of the offensive line, the truth is, he failed to create plays and too often delivered the ball into the dirt (or the opposing team).  A more decisive and accurate quarterback would help Seattle’s offense score more touchdowns and post higher yardage totals.

Fantasy Football Impact:
Kevin Kolb will be a Tier 3 QB if dealt to Seattle.

For additional fantasy football advice, check out gridiron-guru.com