Jose Reyes Is Where the Mets Should Put Their Money

It was only a matter of time before the Jose Reyes trade rumors began to swirl, but that time has come.  Time will also reveal more about the Mets' financial situation, but considering that the Mets will have a fair to substantial amount of money shred from the payroll this offseason, the decision to trade Reyes, if made, will be a baseball one.  Unless it is the first step in Alderson dismantling the entire team, a trade of Reyes signals one thing—a choice that David Wright is more valuable to the Mets. 

The Mets are at a cross roads. Do they maintain the Wright and Reyes era? Do they split it apart? And if so, who's staying and who's going?  Yes, Reyes's contract is up, and that is why he is the focus of trade talks, but trading Reyes would still be talked about if his contract wasn't coming up now, but instead in two years with Wright.  It may not be as an intense of a subject as it is now, but Mets fans and some commentators have suggested, since the 2009 season, that it might be best to trade Reyes, who may have reached his ceiling.

Why Reyes and not Wright?  First, there is the myth of Jose Reyes's injury problems.  Reyes came up more than half-way through the year in 2003, and he then faced hamstring problems in 2004, which limited him to 53 games.  Has one injury sullied anyone's reputation more? Over the next four years, Reyes averaged 156-and-a-half games played a year.  He was again limited by injury in 2009, only playing 33 games.  Last year, he missed the beginning of the year with a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee, but then went on to play 133 games after returning.  In essence, Reyes has been healthy for a substantial part of the season in six of his eight years in the majors, if you include his rookie year. 

The second reason that Wright often gets noticed more is, ironically, due to his newfound inconsistency.  The David Wright that played at Shea Stadium is a different player than the one that plays at Citi Field. He strikes out more, and he hits in waves. There are periods when the Mets are so bad that it often gets lost just how bad David Wright hits during some streaks.  It is also very obvious when Wright is hot, as he, at times, single handed, has made the Mets a competitive team in the past couple years. (See June 2010, 404/.447/683, 6HR, 29 RBI, 22R). 

But, when you take a look at the numbers, a comparison of Reyes and Wright looks like six of one and a half-dozen of the other.

162 Game Avg. (based on stats going into 5/7 game against the Dodgers)

Jose Reyes

PA: 747; AB: 687

R: 111; RBI: 66

H: 197 2B: 34 3B: 15 HR: 13

SB/CS:58/15 BB: 51 K's: 82

BA: .285 OBP: .336 SLG:.433 OPS:.768

Total Bases: 297

David Wright

PA:700; AB: 609

R: 103; RBI: 106

H: 184 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 27

SB/CS: 23/7 BB: 78 K's: 131

BA: .307 OBP: .387 SLG: .517 OPS:.905

Total Bases: 312

By the averages, it seems simple. David Wright has an OPS that is nearly .150 higher than that of Jose Reyes. One striking stat is the total base differential or lack of it. Wright, despite the higher OPS, only has 15 more total bases than Reyes. If you account for stolen bases, caught stealing and walks, Wright and Reyes take an equal amount of bases during an averaged 162 game span.

Finally, there is another factor to take into account—strikeouts. Wright strikes out 45 more times in an averaged 162-game span, failing to make a productive out or put any pressure on the defense to make a play. Despite making more contact, Reyes grounds out into eight less double plays than Wright (7 compared to Wright's 15).

A deeper look at Wright's numbers reveal some alarming facts and one main conclusion—the guy, by himself, doesn't help you win that often. In more direct words, he's not "The Man."  Wright's numbers with two outs & RISP in his career are .247/.361/.425. In "late and close" games (plate appearances in the seventh inning or later of a tied game or the Mets ahead by one or the Mets down with the tying run on deck) Wright's line is .284/.390/.447.

Reyes's lines are .268/.375/.480 and .276/.347/.382, respectively.  Also, let's not discount Reyes's 47 stolen bases in those late and close games, compared to Wright's 27 (Reyes has 39 and Wright 17 when there are two outs and RISP).  All in all, the numbers are similar, but that does not mean they're neutral, as Reyes is putting up such numbers in the leadoff position, while Wright is doing it with Reyes on base. 

Amazingly, Reyes "gets the job done" more than Wright when it matters.  With two outs and RISP Reyes has 145 RBI in 480 PA and 51 RBI  in 634 PA in late & close games; Wright has 155 RBI in 524PA and 76RBI in 685PA.  The numbers begin to show you that Reyes, as a leadoff hitter, gives as much, or more, clutch production than Wright as a three or four hitter.

Wright's advancement in strikeouts has been disconcerting as well.  His continuing problem with Ks is acknowledged now, but in 685 PA in late & close games, Wright has struck out 150 times. Reyes has stuck out 77 times in 634 PA. With two outs and RISP, Wright has struck out 106 times in 524 PA, in comparison to Reyes's 58 in 480 PA.    This means that Wright is making unproductive outs in the most important situations and failing to put pressure on the defense to make plays in these situations. 

Although Wright's qualities are valuable they are hardly unique.  The question becomes what are they worth, in money's value, and what are they worth in team building value.  I do not think Wright will be worth the contract he'll get (from the Mets or another team) in two years (in light of Ryan Braun's contract you can expect it to be around $20 million per year).  Moreover, it's a difficult proposition to accept that Wright has as much value as Jose Reyes in building a foundation for the Mets, or any team generally.

A change of scenery may not be bad for Wright.  Some team will take the $20 million gamble that Wright's new woes lie in Citi Field, not himself, and that the "Shea Stadium" David Wright will come back with a change of scenery.  The Mets would be able to receive an equal, if not greater, return on their investment by trading David Wright, especially if the trade comes at a time when he's hitting how he did last June. 

Ideally, the Mets can keep both of them.  Neither player can carry a team on their back throughout a majority of the season.  But, Reyes can provide a baseball skill set which cannot be replaced, due to his speed, position and defensive ability.  There are only two better shortstops than Jose Reyes (Hanley Ramirez Troy Tulowitzki), but none offer what he does.  Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus provide similar qualities and still have a large amount of time to develop, but they are not as dynamic as Reyes.  

It's all about time now though.  Time will tell what will happen, and it will reveal Sandy Alderson's plan. Maybe both will go, maybe both will stay or maybe one of them may have to leave New York while the other stays. But, if Reyes is the one to go, Mets fans will have to watch Reyes be taken under MVP consideration, like he did in 2006. Except this time, he'll be on another team.