2011 NFL Draft: The One Player the Arizona Cardinals Must Avoid

Any passive fan of the NFL understands Arizona's biggest weakness.  They rode the arm of Kurt Warner to their second and third post-season appearances since they were the "Arizona" or "Phoenix" Cardinals.

Without Warner, the team looked pedestrian once again, unable to mount a rushing or passing attack.  Their defense also seemed to feed off the ineptness, leading them to the fifth pick in the 2011 NFL draft.

The need to bring in an NFL-caliber starting QB is quite clear for the Cardinals, and many mock drafts have slated Blaine Gabbert to them with the fifth overall pick.  These selections ignore the glaring needs in the secondary that could be filled with the likes of Patrick Peterson, or pass rush issues that Von Miller could fill.

Don't expect the Cardinals to do the same...and only partly because Bill Bidwill won't want to part with the salary required to sign a QB taken in the top five of the NFL draft.

There are two justifiable, non-salary reasons the Cardinals need to avoid Gabbert in this draft. First, they can better address other needs in round one than round two (and, conversely, they can grab a solid signal caller in round two).  

Taking a cog for their secondary or front seven will make the entire unit much better, as their lack of a pass rush strained their DBs, and their DBs didn't extend many plays to give their pass rush a few extra opportunities.

Round two of the draft will have a QB that better suits their needs, be it an unlikely fall for Jake Locker, or Ryan Mallett, Colin Kaepernick, Chrstian Ponder, etc...but the purpose here isn't to project who grabs Ken Whisenhunt's attention. 

The second, and more important, reason the Cardinals need to avoid Gabbert is Gabbert himself.  He just doesn't fit the Arizona offense.  Gabbert had a propensity for throwing short passes and checking down to RBs (remind Cardinal fans of anyone).  This selection will send Larry Fitzgerald on the run, and I don't mean a "Go" route.

The best place to start with Gabbert is the dropoff in his numbers last season.  I won't bunch up this article with all the data, but you can find the numbers in the link...and they are significant.

What is even more significant is the drop from Chase Daniels' performance.  Daniels had better numbers in all three of his seasons than Gabbert managed either year.  Daniels' low TD figure was 28 as a sophomore, and he threw 39 his senior year.  Gabbert had 24 as sophomore, and just 16 as a junior. 

These figures are hardly impressive for a high-powered spread offense.  So why all the fuss?

Just for fun, I charted passes in a few games where I had access to all of his offensive snaps.  Against Illinois, who was bereft of DBs at the time, he had what looked like great accuracy, hitting 34 of 48 passes.  Two of the 14 incomplete passes were dropped, and a third was catch-able, but not thrown well.  Looks like a great day, right?

But when reviewing the game the stats are mostly fluff. 

15 of the completions were either behind the line of scrimmage or within five yards. Yet another 15 were between five and 10 yards down-field.  That is 30 of 34 completions being short-range throws.  

This type of distribution may fly in some west coast offenses, where accuracy and a quick release are important, but is not what Arizona needs to achieve with their high-profile WRs.

Further into the passing stats, six passes of under 10 yards were incomplete and accounted for both of the drops.  He completed four of five passes between 10 and 20 yards to open receivers, but missed on all five that landed more than twenty yards beyond the line.  

I can see Gabbert possibly turning into a decent west coast QB, and he may be attractive to the 49ers at pick seven or Washington at 10.  However, that would be more of a testament to their state of emergency at the QB position, and having San Francisco take Gabbert at seven could provide yet another boost to the Cardinals (as well as the Rams and Seahawks).  Gabbert could be the next version of Alex Smith.

As for Gabbert's Pro Day...yes, he worked from under center, and some analysts felt he looked good in his drop.  In the limited portion that was televised, his footwork didn't appear to be there yet, but he has time to improve that aspect of his game.

Gabbert also hit most of his passes.  But so did another player that has some interesting comparisons, Washington QB Jake Locker.  Similar to Gabbert, Locker saw his numbers drop last season, and because of that Locker has fallen out of consideration as a top QB. In fact, their overall numbers are very close with the exception of completion percentage.

However, Gabbert runs a spread offense with a lot of bubble screens and swing passes to his RBs that kept his completion rate high, despite falling numbers everywhere else.  

Locker ran more of a pro set and threw the ball down-field.  As such, Locker's completion percentage was lower, but he would be a much better option for Arizona.

Throwing a nice spiral isn't enough to get it done in the NFL, and I just haven't seen anything from Gabbert to make him a top five pick.

Do your team a favor, Bidwill, and follow your pocketbook desires and go defense in round one and QB in round two.