Buffalo Bills 2011 Mock Draft: Rounds 1-7 Best, Realistic & Worst Case Scenarios
One year ago, I ran a well-received piece that was entitled: Buffalo Bills 2010 Mock Draft: Rounds 1-7 Best Bet, Realistic Scenario and Worst Case. You can find that story here.
Based on that story, we will attempt to lay out the same categories for the 2011 Buffalo Bills draft, which is now less than three weeks away. We will try to focus on the players that give the Bills a realistic chance to upgrade their talent level at positions that need a major boost.
As we go through this mock draft, keep in mind that as of today, April 8th, there is no immediate answer coming from the courts regarding the NFL lockout and free agency is still a very big question mark.
Without any other resource available for Buddy Nix to turn to, (at least for now) in preparing to field the best team he can for the 2011 season, he will have to view the draft as the best chance for landing potential starters at positions which currently have no go-to guy.
Those unclear positions, to me, would seem to be right tackle, safety, defensive end, inside linebacker, and to a lesser extent tight end, cornerback, guard and outside linebacker.
As this draft marks year two of the Buddy Nix overhaul of the Bills, adding key depth across the board is also very important.
On to the mock.
Round One Best Bet
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A wide number of options have been discussed by Buffalo Bills fans as to who should be the Bills selection with the third overall pick in the 2011 Draft. The names most frequently discussed are Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, Cam Newton and Patrick Peterson. To a lesser extent, you will hear or see people wanting to bring in A.J. Green, Blaine Gabbert, Da'Quan Bowers or Nick Fairley.
He might not be available when the Bills are on the clock with the third pick, but if he is, I think the best bet selection has to be Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus.
Dareus is a disruptive player for enemy offenses. He can cave in the offensive line at the point of attack, or can take on two offensive lineman and neutralize the line of scrimmage, which frees up the linebackers to make a play on the ball behind or at the line of scrimmage instead of five yards down the field.
Lining up next to Kyle Williams should only allow Williams to be that much more effective and efficient because defenses would not be able to focus on Kyle only.
Drafting Dareus would make the linebackers better, and the rest of the defensive line better. An indirect result is that he will force people like Alex Carrington and Torell Troup to raise their games if they want to get more snaps.
Dareus played at different positions or different defensive line techniques at Alabama. Having that kind of versatility makes him an ideal fit for the Bills' plans to go with a hybrid defense, which could be a 3-4 look one week or a 4-3 look the next.
For short yardage or goal line scenarios, lining up Dwan Edwards, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Torell Troup and Alex Carrington sounds like a pretty solid front five.
From helping the Bills to improve their rush defense, or in attempting to create better pressure on the quarterback, Marcell Dareus makes tremendous sense for the Bills first pick. The real question is will he still be on the board when the Bills turn in their draft card?
Round One Worst Case
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The one player that is without question the most debated player in the 2011 NFL Draft is Cam Newton.
Is he a franchise quarterback, is he a reincarnation of Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell, or he is just simply not mature yet, and as a result is very misunderstood?
From the many interviews, to the private meetings, Buddy Nix has a solid handle on what Cam Newton is all about. They are doing every bit of deep background checking they can on Newton to make sure they know what they could be getting.
They may never find out however, as the growing public opinion seems to suggest that Cam Newton is going to be the first player selected by the Carolina Panthers. If that is indeed how it turns out, all of the speculation and debating will have been for naught.
As outspoken as I have been about the lack of sincerity or genuineness that Newton evokes in his interviews, there is no denying that he is a physically gifted quarterback who brings many new dimensions to what the future NFL quarterback might look like.
He can run, bull over defenders and has demonstrated the ability to keep plays alive with his scrambling ability.
What will Cam Newton do with millions of dollars in his bank account? Will he turn in to a Matt Leinart, or will he be an Eli Manning and demand a trade?
Will he have the dedication needed to stay home, study his playbook and watch film?
I somehow see Newton's overwhelming desire to be an "entertainer and icon" as winning out, and staying home to study plays and watching film would be a distant second.
When it comes to my worst case pick for the Bills in the first round, this is an easy choice—Cam Newton.
Round One Realistic Scenario
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For the realistic scenario,I opted for Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller. I wrestled with the idea of Miller versus Patrick Peterson, the standout LSU cornerback. At the end of the day, I chose Miller.
Von Miller has a strong track record of verifiable production that he established during his career at Texas A&M. He led the NCAA in sacks as a junior with 17. He had 21 tackles that year for a loss. Miller was named as an All-American linebacker in both his junior and senior seasons. He also won the Butkus Award as the top linebacker in the country.
Miller came up with 27.5 sacks over his final two years. He demonstrated to the Bills coaching staff at the Senior Bowl that he has the ability to drop back in pass coverage, so he would be an every down linebacker.
Another important distinction is that out of all of the potential names being discussed for this draft pick, Miller is the only senior in the group, as everyone else is an underclassman. Since Buddy Nix drafted only seniors in his initial draft, you would have to think that Miller is looking better and better to Nix right about now.
The Bills already know what kind of a player he is to work with thanks to the Senior Bowl week. At the combines, Miller ran a 4.53 40 yard time, and had a 10'6" broad jump. He is an athlete and a physical specimen, at 6'3" and 246 pounds. He plays with tenacity and is ferocious on the field.
If you have a healthy Shawne Merriman on one side of the field, and plug in Von Miller at the other, that should leave every NFL quarterback the Bills face with far less time to throw than they have been accustomed to when facing the Bills defense.
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Round Two Best Bet
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If Christian Ponder, the quarterback from Florida State, is still sitting there on the big board when pick 34 comes along, I have a sneaky suspicion that Chan Gailey will convince Buddy Nix that he is the guy the Bills will select in the second round.
Due to how deep the current 2011 class is, there are a wide number of choices that could easily be plugged in at 34. We don't even know yet who will be falling down from the first round to be a potential surprise as an option at 34, but when you do the math you realize that some shocks or surprises will cause some guys to fall down lower than expected.
From pure speculation we could make a case for Cam Heyward, Phil Taylor, Marvin Austin, Stephen Paea, Colin Kaepernick, Jonathan Baldwin, Brooks Reed, Kyle Rudolph, Rahim Moore and Akeem Ayers.
But at the end of the day, I keep coming back to Christian Ponder as the best bet for the Bills second round. The Senior Bowl MVP has been continuously moving up draft boards since January.
From Chan Gailey trying to recruit Ponder out of high school to play for him at Georgia Tech, to being reunited at the Senior Bowl and working together there, Gailey has had the chance to develop a strong relationship with Ponder.
Being a quarterback guru, Gailey can grab Ponder fresh out of college and correct whatever habits or tendencies needs to be corrected in Gailey's mind.
Ponder can sit on the Bills bench for 2011 and learn the offense from Ryan Fitzpatrick. We don't know what will happen with Fitzpatrick as his contract is up after the 2011 season.
Maybe the Bills sign Fitz for a one or two year extension. But if they draft Ponder, it would seem unlikely that the Bills would then turn around and sign Fitzpatrick to a four or five year deal. You draft Ponder in the second round with the thought that he would be your guy in 2012.
The Bills may never have that chance, as from picks 25 through 33 are announced, the Bills faithful should be holding their collective breath that some other NFL team has just traded up so that they could draft Ponder ahead of the Bills.
Round Two Worst Case
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What will the Seattle Seahawks do with their first draft pick?
If they decide to pass on the local star, Washington quarterback Jake Locker, then I expect him to tumble all the way down the draft board to be an option for the Bills at 34.
Should he still be there, I sincerely hope the Bills will not get caught up in the drama that media coverage will generate about when Locker will be drafted, and simply pass on him.
Don't get me wrong. I like Locker as a person. I applaud him for his decision to return to college, complete his education and try to lead his Washington team to a bowl game. But, it is the production that he generated—or lack of it—that has me wincing at the thought of him quarterbacking the Buffalo Bills.
If Locker had trouble making the right decisions on where to throw the ball or what options to go to based on coverages he encountered in college, how do you think he will fare in the NFL when the defenders are bigger, stronger and faster?
The coverages are designed to confuse quarterbacks, and the ability to disguise what you are really intending to do is something that defensive coordinators excel at.
Even with a year on the bench to learn how to quarterback in the NFL, I am not yet convinced, as are most NFL Draft experts, that Locker is ready to take the next step up in competition.
Round Two Realistic Scenario
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Martez Wilson is currently viewed as the top inside linebacker in the upcoming draft. The Illinois linebacker is another physical specimen along the lines of Von Miller.
While Miller excels at generating a pass rush from the outside, Martez Wilson excels at covering the field and making plays from the inside linebacker role.
As Buddy Nix has pronounced on many occasions, the Bills need to get bigger at the inside linebacker position. Wilson fits that bill. Wilson is 6'4" and weighs 250. He runs the 40 in 4.49 seconds which is extremely fast for an inside linebacker. At the combines, Wilson had a 10'4" broad jump and a 36" vertical jump.
His speed makes him somewhat of a freak, and as a result he can sometimes get caught when he over-pursues a play.
Wilson does need to learn how to control his speed and talents to be as efficient and effective as he can be in an inside linebacker slot. If the Bills sign Paul Posluszny to a new contract, then Wilson will have the chance to compete with Andra Davis for the other inside linebacker slot.
Wilson is a playmaker, and that is sorely needed on the Bills defense. In 2010, consider his final stat line. 112 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and one interception.
If the Bills do wind up drafting Marcell Dareus, I would not be surprised to see them take Martez Wilson in the second round. If they draft Von Miller however, I don't see them going linebacker then linebacker again in the first two picks. Then I think this pick would change to one of other names we highlighted in the prior slide. Maybe Phil Taylor, Cam Heyward, Stephen Paea or Derek Sherrod.
Round Three Best Bet
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If the Buffalo Bills start out the 2011 Draft with the selection of Patrick Peterson/Von Miller in the first round, and then Christian Ponder in the second round, they will have to look at who is still on the big board that could help out either the defensive line or the offensive line with the 68th overall pick.
Those choices could be whittled down to players such as Clemson nose tackle Jarvis Jenkins, a couple of Dave Wannstedt's Pittsburgh defensive linemen in Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard, or an offensive tackle such as James Carpenter of Alabama or Will Rackley of Lehigh (assuming that they are still on the board).
There will probably be a couple physically gifted athletes that are in that DE/OLB debate such as Dontay Moch and Sam Acho, but both of them remind me of Aaron Maybin, so my knee-jerk reaction is to pass on anything that resembles Maybin.
For my best bet, I will go with a player that the Bills brought in for a recent visit, and somebody that the Bills also got very good exposure to at the Senior Bowl in LSU linebacker Kelvin Sheppard. Sheppard was a leader and a playmaker for the LSU defense. In 2010, as an example, he made 108 tackles, 11 of those went for a loss, had 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.
Sheppard is another big physical linebacker with strong assets. He is 6'3" and weighs 240. He ran the 40 in 4.56 which demonstrates his speed and agility.
Round Three Worst Case
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Due to the limited depth currently on the Bills roster regarding the quarterback position, the question is should they sign a free agent, trade for a veteran to backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, or draft somebody to come in and challenge Levi Brown for the backup role.
We are presuming that Brian Brohm will not be back with the Bills.
In the second round we projected that Christian Ponder would be the Bills pick. If the Bills do not take Ponder, and Colin Kaepernick is still on the board at 68, I would be surprised if the Bills let him slide by. If Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi is still there, I would hope that they let him go to some other team.
Stanzi projects to be a third-round quarterback, but if you watched the Senior Bowl practices or the combine workouts, Stanzi was the least dynamic of the top seven quarterbacks in this class.
He is OK, but nothing special. I just think the Bills can do better in the third round.
Round Three Realistic Scenario
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Alabama tackle James Carpenter had the opportunity to face off against Marcell Dareus every day in practice. That type of exposure can only help you to improve your game, going up against the best.
Carpenter started out as a probable third round draft choice, but some people like Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network have come out recently with comments calling Carpenter the second best tackle in the draft. If teams buy in to that statement, Carpenter will not be there on the big board when the Bills turn comes around at 68.
Carpenter was another player the Bills got a very good look at in the Senior Bowl, as he was also a member of the South team. Are you noticing a trend here?
Almost every player we are highlighting was on that Senior Bowl South Team roster. Other names to consider that played for the South include: Rodney Hudson, Colin McCarthy, DeAndre McDaniel, D.J. Williams, Luke Stocker and Danny Watkins.
During the past two years, Carpenter started in all 27 games Alabama played in. He stands 6'4 1/2" and weighs 324. Some draft experts project him to be more of a guard in the NFL than a tackle. He has 34" arms which is on the cusp of being acceptable length for a tackle. If Eric Wood is moved from guard to center, Carpenter could probably be plugged in to Wood's old guard slot.
Worst case is that he provides depth and a challenge to both Demetrius Bell and Erik Pears for their starting tackle jobs.
Round Four (A): Best Bet
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For the past several months we have toyed with the idea of drafting a tight end somewhere in the first three rounds of the draft. Bills fans have loudly voiced their opinion that the tight end spot is not that great of a priority, and I have been paying attention.
So, as the Bills enter the fourth round of the draft with the pick at 100, they are still looking for some players that can provide an upgrade over current options and become a potential starter.
The Bills' best bet is Tennessee tight end Luke Stocker.
Stocker impressed at the Senior Bowl as well as at the Scouting Combines. Because he was so impressive in both of those settings, there is a very good chance that he will still not be there on the big board by the time pick 100 rolls along.
We have resisted drafting a tight end until now, but Stocker is a guy with good hands that is willing to stick his nose in to block as well. At 6'5" and 255 pounds, Stocker has the kind of size you like to see in a tight end. He ran a 4.79 in the 40, so he has decent speed for a big man.
Other tight end options would be D.J. Williams of Arkansas or possibly Lance Kendricks of Wisconsin. It would not be a surprise if most of these three are gone in the third round, but all the Bills need is just one of them to be there at 100.
Round Four (A) Worst Case
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As we mentioned earlier there are no true real "worst case scenarios" from this point on for the rest of the draft. Players that have fallen to pick 100 and below have some major flaws in their game. If they didn't have any flaws, they would be rated much higher.
So, we will throw the name of Lawrence Guy, Arizona State Defensive End, because we needed some guy to plug in. Sorry for the pun.
Round Four (A): Realistic Scenario
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Casey Matthews, Oregon linebacker is our realistic scenario for the first pick the Bills have in the fourth round.
Matthews was the leader of the Oregon defense and he is another playmaker type at the linebacking position.
During his career, Matthews was credited with 229 tackles, 9 sacks and 4 interceptions. He is more of a football player, than he is a standout athlete with imposing physical skills.
He is considered to be a little bit too small for the NFL as he is 6'2" and 237. His 40 time was 4.78. At the combine, he got hurt doing the bench press, and it may be that injury that keeps his value depressed enough so that he is still available to the Bills with the pick at 100.
Matthews needs to learn how to shed blocks better. You can't teach size, so if Matthews can put on some more weight or get stronger to assist him in shedding blocks, he will only help his game.
If Matthews is already off the board, another linebacker candidate would be Thomas Keiser of Stanford. Keiser only had roughly one half of the number of tackles that Matthews had (108) but he did come up with much better sack totals (20). At 6'5" and 257 pounds Keiser would be a better physical specimen for combating offensive linemen.
Round Four (B) Best Bet
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With the pick at 122, there is still a very good chance that Owen Marecic is available for the Bills to draft.
Marecic is the modern day Jim Thorpe, playing both ways, as a fullback on offense and as a linebacker on defense for Stanford. It appears that he is being viewed more as a fullback in the NFL than as a linebacker.
Marecic is the best-bet pick here because he can be effective running the ball in short yardage situations, and will be a much younger version of Corey McIntyre. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, and will provide good lead blocks for Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.
Somebody who goes both ways will have no problems excelling at special teams, which is another area he can help the Bills. In addition, if injuries hit the linebackers, he could always be plugged in on a moments notice.
Finally, he can report back to Andrew Luck what a great city that Buffalo is to play for, and can pave the way for the 2012 draft.
Round Four (B) Worst Case
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The quarterbacks available from here on out are essentially a younger version of Levi Brown. So, here we introduce Pat Devlin, from Delaware.
Devlin had a strong season at Delaware, but he is just one more project. Maybe down the road he will earn his way into some starts but for now I have more faith in Levi Brown.
Round Four (B) Realistic Scenario
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For the best bet for the Bills second pick in the fourth round, we call attention to Jalil Brown, who was the other cornerback at Colorado University to Jimmy Smith. Brown had to win his way into the starting lineup one step at a time. By the time his career was finished, Brown registered 174 tackles and 6 interceptions.
At 6' 1/2", Brown has decent size, weighing 205. He runs the 40 in 4.53 and did a 9'8" broad jump. He makes plays and took on the best receiver Colorado faced each week.
Brown is known as a physical corner and will be someone that could start off as a nickel defender and work his way up the pecking order, just like he did at Colorado.
With Drayton Florence being a large question mark for 2011, it makes sense to draft some talent at corner. Terrence McGee is obviously not getting any younger.
Round Five: Best Bet
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With the pick at 133, the Bills in the fifth round should be looking for depth on either the offensive line or the secondary. Between the best bet and the realistic scenario choices, we offer up two different safeties that should be fine additions.
The Bills best bet for the fifth round is Oklahoma safety Quinton Carter, shown here lining up potential future Bills quarterback Christian Ponder. The only problem is that Carter may well be gone by the fifth round, which is why we have a backup plan.
Carter was an All-American safety this past year. He tied for the Sooners team lead with 4 interceptions and made 217 career tackles. He is a 6' 1" safety and weighs 208. He ran the 40 in a respectable 4.57 and had a 10' 1" broad jump and a 34 1/2" vertical leap, to illustrate what kind of an athlete he is.
Round Five: Worst Case
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We were looking for a warm body to put in to the worst case scenario and found this picture of Nebraska tight end Mike McNeill. That will work for our purposes here.
Round Five: Realistic Scenario
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Our realistic scenario for round five is another safety, Robert Sands of West Virginia. Sands is one of the largest safeties in the country, as he stands 6' 4" and weighs 217. He runs the 40 in 4.57, so he is pretty fast.
Sands is thought to be more of a project, as he needs to be better at making interceptions and in coverage. He also is susceptible to being beaten on play fakes. But, with his athletic skills and physical talents, he is somebody you can bring in slowly and break him in over time.
In case both Carter and Sands are off the big board by the time the Bills are up with the pick at 133, a couple other safety options to consider are Tyler Sash of Iowa and Mark LeGree of Appalachian State.
Round Six: Best Bet
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What is with these photos? Another potential Buffalo Bills draft pick tackling potential Bills quarterback Christian Ponder. Conspiracy theorists will be all over this. Or not.
Owen Wujciak is a tackling machine from the University of Maryland.
He had to endure a trying rehab from a bad knee injury to become the highest active tackler among all active ACC players. He totaled 358 tackles in the past three years, and he made All-ACC teams the past three years running.
Pretty heady stuff. Wujciak has the kind of lunch-pail-mentality player Bills fans can easily rally behind. He would be a solid addition for depth and help out on special teams.
If Alex Wujciak is sitting there on the big board at pick 169, the Bills better have his name ready to roll.
Round Six: Worst Case
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Taylor Potts was the quarterback at Texas Tech. He is one year behind Levi Brown for experience, so the Bills can save this pick for other positions of need.
Round Six: Realistic Scenario
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One other potential option at 169, is West Virginia Cornerback Brandon Hogan. Hogan will no doubt grade out higher than a sixth-round draft pick, but when you factor in some of the questionable off-the-field issues during the past year, he could still be there this late in the draft.
Hogan was a wide receiver who was converted to cornerback. He is 5'10" and weighs192.
A fast kid, Hogan ran the 40 in 4.43, so he can really move. The Bills will need to do restocking in their secondary either this year or next, so if they can find good value this late in the draft, that is nothing to sneeze at.
Round Seven (A) Best Bet
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When you get down to the seventh round, you are hoping to find lightning in a bottle. Sure there are some seventh-round picks that have gone on to have great NFL careers, but they are in the minority. The Bills have done well identifying players who were not even drafted who wound up making the 2010 roster.
But there are no guarantees. Just ask Kyle Calloway, the Bills seventh round draft pick in 2010. He never even made the team out of training camp.
So, our best bet for the pick at 206 is Syracuse lineman Ryan Bartholomew. He already is used to playing football in New York, so he is not adverse to the winters. He was the strongest lineman at the combineas he set the record for bench press in Indianapolis among his offensive line peers. He is depth for either center or guard positions.
Bartholomew did 34 reps at 225 pounds. He is a touch over 6'0" tall and weighs around 304. Shorter and harder to budge. He did help lead the way for a 1,000 yard running back in Delone Carter.
Round Seven (A) Worst Case
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Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin quarterback. makes the grade for a seventh-round, worst-case pick. We already have a Scott Tolzien in Levi Brown, so we don't need a second one. Pass.
Round Seven (A) Realistic Scenario
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Carl Johnson is another example of an offensive lineman like Ryan Bartholomew that might have a chance to stick with an NFL team looking to add a potential project lineman. Johnson played his college ball at Florida.
Johnson is an interesting story because he is fighting a disease known as Crohn's Disease. There was an interesting story about his battle by Ben Volin of The Daily Dolphin.
Because Johnson needs to inject himself with steroids to fight off the effects of the Crohn's Disease, his weight is known to greatly fluctuate. It has been anywhere in the 340 - 370 pound range, and he stands 6' 5". This is a very big man.
Clearly Johnson is a project, but as he continues to fight on, you have to give him credit for doing what he can to stay in shape.
Round Seven (B) Best Bet
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A quarterback and a center have a special bond. They need to trust each other and work well together. So, when the Bills were awarded an extra draft pick as part of the compensatory round, they might find one Chase Beeler sitting there on the big board at 245.
The thing that is unique about Beeler is that he has been hiking the ball to Andrew Luck at Stanford. You would think that Luck has a reasonable amount of respect for Beeler, so he already would feel comfortable in Buffalo knowing that his long-time center was already there.
Another option is to use this pick on somebody who was suspended for 2010, or was hurt to the point that their 2010 production was limited due to the injury. This is a freebie, so might as well take a flyer on someone with some major upside.
Round Seven (B) Worst Case
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T.J. Yates, just one more seventh-round type prospect quarterback who just doesn't make much sense for the Bills
Round Seven (B) Realistic Scenario
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One example of a good potential flyer with the pick at 245 is Virginia Tech tight end Andre Smith. Smith is another example of a basketball player who turned to football late in his career and showed some promise as a tight end.
This could potentially be a guy that could catch on and show some promise due to the skills he honed on the basketball court.
This is a big tight end, going 6' 5" and weighing in at 270 pounds. Ran the 40 in 4.80 but is an athlete.
Smith is better at blocking, but if he can develop his pass catching skills, the Bills might uncover a diamond in the rough here.
Okay, there you go Bills fans.
Seven rounds of best bets and realistic scenario options. It will be interesting to see how many of these kids are actually drafted by the Bills. It will also be interesting to see how many players from the South roster of the Senior Bowl are also taken by the Bills.
Feel free to leave a comment or if you prefer, go ahead and list your choices for your mock picks for the full seven rounds. There are less than three weeks left now, so this is as good a time as any to get your picks on record.
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