MLB Predictions: Predicting the Records of the Teams in the AL Central
The American League Central came down to six games at the end of the season, with the Minnesota Twins beating out the Chicago White Sox. This was the Twins’ second straight title in a division that can really go to any of the teams (except maybe Kansas City) on any given year.
Having been beat out and not tasting the postseason for several years, the rest of the division went out and did some shopping on the Hot Stove to try to secure a playoff spot for 2011. This has led to three teams emerging as the best and brightest of the division.
The division is a tough call this year, with some more star power coming to help the teams that were close to the playoffs.
This division is so close that it could just come down to who stays healthy this season.
5. Kansas City Royals 60-102
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In 2010, the Royals went a meager 67-95, and finished last in the division…again.
The Royals lost Zack Greinke and David DeJesus over the offseason, losing the faces of their franchise. They no longer have a legitimate All-Star and they look even worse than last season.
The only positive I can say about 2011 is that it will give their younger guys a chance to play in the majors.
The Royals acquired Vin Mazzaro from Oakland for DeJesus, which was a big positive. They also got Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar from the Greinke deal, as well as young pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress. In addition, they acquired the previous ace of the Rockies, Jeff Francis, who turned 30 over the offseason.
While the Royals are not looking good this season, they have young talent and they could be looking up over the next few years. But for now, they stay in the basement.
Prediction: The Royals will be sellers around the trade deadline if they do anything, and they will continue to look for young talent.
4. Cleveland Indians 66-96
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The Indians went 69-93 in 2010 and finished fourth.
Austin Kearns, Orlando Cabrera and Chad Durbin. These guys are the only moves that the Indians could make during the offseason. Wow. The Indians are not a good team, but they do have some strengths.
Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson are their top two pitchers, both of whom are pretty good. Their lineup has Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore, who might be able to return to his 2009 form. Carlos Santana could emerge as a great catcher if he stays healthy, and Chris Perez is a very good closer.
Aside from these small victories, the Indians are pretty bad, to be honest. The Indians have been linked to Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Bonderman recently, but have not signed either yet. But even if they do, they will not be a contender.
Hopefully the Indians will make waves during the offseason after 2011, because they just are not cutting it right now.
Prediction: Because Sizemore and Travis Hafner have little trade value and Choo is young and untouchable, the Indians do not have much to sell or to buy with. I don’t see any big moves around the deadline.
3. Chicago White Sox 87-75
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Last season the ChiSox finished 88-74, good enough for second in the division.
During the offseason, the White Sox acquired the best slugger on the market, Adam Dunn. Dunn will be the DH and, now that he doesn’t need to think about fielding (not that he did much of that anyway), he can focus solely on hitting, I see 40 home runs considering he’ll be playing 81 games at U.S. Cellular Field.
Dunn will help solidify the middle of the lineup with Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin.
Chicago lost Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz, but they signed Jesse Crain and Will Ohman. Matt Thornton and Chris Sale round out the top four of Chicago’s bullpen, and these four are fierce.
Another reason for the the poor finish is the changed Tigers and the Twins staying powerful. A stronger division will lead to more losses for sure, so the effect of the new additions will be somewhat canceled out.
Prediction: Chicago will be buyers at the trade deadline but they won’t sign any big-name players, leading to third in the division.
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2. Minnesota Twins 88-74
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The Twins went 94-68 in 2010 and repeated as division champs of the AL Central. They relied heavily on Joe Mauer to carry the offense with Justin Morneau hurt for a while, and Mauer stepped up. The Twins cannot expect that type of production again this season, however.
During the offseason, the Twins re-signed Jim Thome and Carl Pavano to aid their bench and starting rotation. Their biggest move was acquiring international superstar Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play second base. However, their bullpen needed work.
The Twins are beginning to realize just how fragile Morneau can be, and there is a big question of whether or not he’ll be healthy this season. The Twins’ shaky bullpen spells trouble, and I don’t see Mauer putting up MVP numbers again.
The Twins are still a solid team, but with the White Sox and Tigers making big moves, it makes their division games that much harder. Going for a three-peat, I see the Twins falling just short.
Prediction: The Twins will be in contention around the deadline and will go for a reliever, but they will only get a small one because their payroll is practically full.
1. Detroit Tigers 92-70
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The Tigers went 81-81 in 2010 and finished third in the division. They relied mainly on Miguel Cabrera, but they did not have anyone to protect him.
During the offseason, Detroit fixed that problem by signing All-Star Victor Martinez. While they paid a premium price to get him, new setup man Joaquin Benoit should solidify the eighth inning for them with Phil Coke moving to the rotation. At $3 million for one year, Brad Penny was a very reasonable gamble.
The Tigers lost Jeremy Bonderman (8-10, 5.53 ERA) and Gerald Laird (.207/.263/.304 in 270 AB), but that’s more of addition by subtraction.
Detroit also kept Magglio Ordonez, Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge during the offseason. These guys, along with Cabrera and Martinez, make up a strong lineup, and their rotation could improve quite a bit if Penny returns to his old form.
Detroit can still rely on Cabrera, who hit .328, 38 homers, just under 130 RBI and over 110 runs scored. Cabrera is a legit MVP candidate, and he has much better odds of repeating his numbers than Mauer.
The Tigers are very solid and have added more to their .500 team. Look for a huge improvement this season.
Prediction: Detroit is a good team, and they’ll be in contention at the trade deadline. Look for the Tigers to make a big move around the deadline and secure the division title.
Further Reading
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AL West: Sunday 3/20
Postseason: Tuesday 3/22
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