MLB Predictions: Predicting the Records of the Teams in the NL West
Formerly known as the Wild Wild West, the National League West came down to the very last day last season, when the San Francisco Giants topped the San Diego Padres to clinch the division. This is part three of a seven-part series predicting the records of the teams in the MLB by division and then the postseason.
The West created fireworks again in the postseason, when the Giants surprised everyone by beating the wild-card Atlanta Braves to win the NLDS, the three-ace Phillies for the NL pennant and the Texas Rangers for the World Series title. San Fran was partying hard last year, but can the Giants do it again?
The NL West may not have acquired any big stars during the offseason, but the moves that were made were big all the same. Even if they didn’t acquire them, there were still big names floating around the NL West, but not in a good way.
Last season the division was incredibly tight, but will it be this year? Well, you’ll just have to keep reading to find out.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks 62-100
1 of 6
Arizona finished dead last in 2010 too, but did nothing to improve.
During the offseason, the D-backs lost Mark Reynolds to Baltimore.
Reynolds led the team in home runs, RBI and strikeouts. He was the biggest bat in their lineup, with 40 HR, 120 RBI potential, which made up for his subpar batting average. The D-backs relied on power and good pitching, but struggled. Without Reynolds, they should do even worse.
The Diamondbacks did not get any big-name players to replace Reynolds or guys with good batting averages to try to change their lineup’s attack, and they did not acquire any good pitchers to make up for their lack of offense.
The Diamondbacks were legitimate losers during the offseason, which will result in an even worse 2011.
Prediction: The Diamondbacks will essentially be out of the division by the trade deadline, and they will trade away talent for prospects. They are in a serious rebuilding state.
4. San Diego Padres 78-84
2 of 6
The Padres were another loser during the offseason.
In 2010 the Padres fell just short of the Giants for the NL West title and a trip to the postseason, but that was when they had their best hitter, Adrian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez was a coveted gem this offseason and joined the Boston Red Sox, who look ready to fight for the World Series this season. He was the Padres’ best hitter in batting average (.298), RBI (101), HR (31), runs scored (87) and OPS (.904).
Anytime a team loses a hitter like Gonzalez, its offense takes a hit, but San Diego’s offense is already pretty bad. The Padres were 22nd in the league in offense last season with 665 runs scored, just over four runs per game.
Now that the Padres have lost their biggest threat at the plate, they are bound to struggle. Their pitching staff is pretty good, but without Gonzalez, it would not be surprising to see them lose between half and a full run per game, leading to many more losses: hence their 12-game dropoff from 2010 when they went 90-72.
Prediction: The Padres should be in a rebuilding state, but their success last season will drive them to try to acquire a big bat at the trade deadline, but they will still finish fourth.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers 81-81
3 of 6
Last season, the Dodgers went 80-82 and finished fourth in the division.
The Dodgers did not make any big moves this offseason, but they lost Russell Martin and replaced him with Rod Barajas, and they lost Manny Ramirez during the season.
Some people may say that the loss of Martin is a big deal, but I say otherwise, and the stats agree with me. Martin only hit .249 with 12 home runs over the past two seasons. These are not the good numbers that he posted during 2007 when he was an All-Star and won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. Since then, Martin has been on a decline. Barajas has only hit .233 in his last two seasons, but he has hit 36 dingers too.
Martin was the better contact hitter, but Barajas has so much more power that he is actually the better hitter, and the Dodgers were missing power last season.
Sure, the Dodgers lost Manny, but they didn’t have him for the end of 2010 either, and they proved that they can win without him.
Lastly, Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton had a poor 2010 season. This caused a few extra losses for LA. Broxton should turn things around in 2011 though, and it seemed as though he was coming back to form near the end of 2010.
These factors should come together to give the Dodgers one more win in 2011.
Prediction: LA will not make any big moves around the trade deadline, but Broxton comes back to form.
.png?w=256)
2. Colorado Rockies 88-74
4 of 6
In 2010 the Rockies went 83-79 and finished third in the division.
The Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez powering their offense, and they have some ridiculous speed in Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith up at the top of the order. Colorado also has Ubaldo Jimenez, who is coming off of the best year of his career, leading its pitching staff.
The Rockies have all of the tools to win. A good lineup with contact, power and speed. A dominant pitching staff with possibly the best pitcher in baseball. A good manager who can lead them to victory.
One of the very few question marks facing the Rockies is how well closer Houston Street will do in 2011. Street was not healthy in 2010, and there is reason to believe that he will not be healthy this year either.
The only thing that makes me wary of the Rockies is the fact that they had just about the same team last season, and they only won 83 games. If they are going to be contenders, something needs to change.
Prediction: Colorado will not make any moves at the deadline, and because of that, it will finish second and out of the Wild Card too.
1. San Francisco Giants 95-67
5 of 6
The 2010 World Series Champions didn’t lose too much during the offseason, and with a dominant pitching staff and a good enough offense, yeah, they’re pretty good.
The Giants won the World Series because of their pitching. In 2011 they will have the second-best pitching staff behind the Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito as their starters, and a great closer in Brian Wilson.
The Giants’ offense consists primarily of Buster Posey, Miguel Tejada, Pablo Sandoval and postseason hero, Cody Ross. They have the offense that they need to win, and it should be even better this season.
Last season Pablo Sandoval, commonly known as “Kung Fu Panda,” had a very poor season at the plate, which is something that he has been working on to improve. Sandoval can be a force at the plate, and with the power to hit McCovey Cove, he needs to play a bigger part in 2011.
When (it’s not an “if”) Sandoval comes back to form, the Giants will be better than last season, and will improve on their 92-70 record from 2010.
Prediction: San Fran will be a buyer at the trade deadline, shopping for another bat, and will win the division comfortably.
Further Reading
6 of 6
AL East: Wednesday 3/16
AL Central: Friday 3/18
AL West: Sunday 3/20
Postseason: Tuesday 3/22
.png?w=480)
