MLB Predictions: Predicting the Records of the Teams in the NL East
With Spring Training now in full force and the regular season less than a month away, it is time to give our predictions for each of the teams in baseball.
The NL East consists of the Atlanta Braves, the Florida Marlins, the New York Mets, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals.
Sure, the main talk of this division has been surrounding the Phillies, but don't be surprised if the Braves start getting a lot more press when the season starts.
This slide show is part one of a series of seven slide shows—one ranking the teams in each division and predicting their records—and one predicting the entire postseason (the schedule of which can be found on the last slide of each one).
So, let's get things kicked off with one of the, if not the, most talked about divisions in baseball...the NL East.
5. Florida Marlins 70-92
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Last season, the Marlins were third in the division with a record of 80-82. So why the big change?
Last season, the Marlins had a nice pitching staff led by a breakout season from Josh Johnson and the core in their lineup in Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu.
The offseason has been rough for the Marlins, however.
They had already traded their cleanup hitter Jorge Cantu to Texas after he played 97 games with the team, but after that, they traded Dan Uggla to the division rival Atlanta Braves for just about nothing.
Now, the Marlins have Wes Helms at third and Omar Infante at second. Sure, both of these guys are pretty good, but they just can’t hit as well as Cantu and Uggla.
Now, the Marlins have lost two of their three best hitters, and they can’t rely on Josh Johnson to have another breakout season in 2011.
Last year, Johnson had a league-leading ERA of 2.30 and could only win 11 games because of how poor his offense was.
If you remember Roy Halladay’s perfect game, he pitched against Josh Johnson, who was given a loss because he gave up an unearned run in a 1-0 loss. You saw how bad the team's hitting was.
If Johnson could barely win double-digit wins last season with Uggla and Cantu, there’s almost no way that he can this season.
A loss of offense and potential pitching woes will lead to the Marlins having a terrible year, and the only reason why they won’t do worse is because they still have Hanley Ramirez.
Prediction: The Marlins will be sellers at the trade deadline and will have a pitiful year…sorry, Florida fans.
4. Washington Nationals 76-86
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Last season, the Washington Nationals went 69-93 and finished dead last in the NL East.
Well, Nats fans finally have something to look forward to in 2011 with the addition of All-Star right fielder Jayson Werth.
In the offseason, the Nats acquired Jayson Werth and Rick Ankiel to strengthen their offense.
The Nats have decent pitchers, but they have had some bad luck throughout the year.
Since the pitchers have been in slumps with the Nats, it would be ridiculous to expect the Nats to be any higher than fourth just because they signed one good player.
The Nationals will win seven more games in 2011 than they did in 2010.
Their offense now has two legitimate All-Stars in Werth and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
With these two leading the way, Washington’s pitchers should have an easier time winning games.
Sure they won’t be legitimate contenders this season, but they should be somewhat competitive and could play spoiler for a team or two.
Prediction: The Nationals will not finish last in the NL East for the first time since moving to Washington, and they will be buyers at the trade deadline and try to improve their team. Washington fans, there is hope.
3. New York Mets 78-84
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Last year, the New York Mets went 79-83, which is not what Mets fans expect of their team. Well, that’s too bad, because the Mets won’t get any better this season.
The New York Mets have already announced plans to trade Jose Reyes and do away with Luis Castillo by either trading or releasing him.
If and when these things happen, the top of the Mets’ lineup will be devastated, and they will no longer have any shot at winning the NL East.
Now, even though they will lose their two leading hitters, I fully expect David Wright and Jason Bay to pick up the slack.
Sure, Bay had a down year last season, but now that he’s got his feet wet and adjusted, he can make progress and have a bounce back year in 2011, and David Wright is their best hitter.
And don’t forget about Ike Davis. Davis is a good first baseman and hitter. These three guys can do their best to salvage the Mets’ 2011 season.
The Mets’ pitching is also pretty good with Santana, Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey as their core four.
These guys will probably do about as well as last season, and if the Mets’ hitters get better (the six who would stay), then they could salvage a mediocre season.
Taking all of these factors into account, I would say that losing Reyes and Castillo for their replacements, but getting Bay back from a poor showing, they should only lose one game off their record.
Therefore, I give them a 78-84 record.
Prediction: The Mets will be sellers throughout the season and are in a rebuilding stage, leading to a poor season.
2. Atlanta Braves 96-66
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Last season, the Braves went 91-71 behind some good hitting and some even better pitching.
During the offseason, the Braves filled their only hole from the playoffs with All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla.
During the 2010 postseason, the Braves lost to the San Francisco Giants because of a few key errors and a lack of production from their second baseman Omar Infante.
Uggla is a good hitting second baseman, and while he might not have the greatest glove, he can make up for that with his bat.
The Braves have an amazing six-man staff with Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Minor and Beachy.
These guys are all good and, for the most part, are young guys who should do better with the experience they got last season.
With this improvement of their offense with Uggla and their pitching staff with experience, the Braves should win at least four more games, giving them a 95-58 record.
Prediction: The Braves will make a minor deal or two at the trade deadline and will have a great season, check to see if they make the playoffs.
1. Philadelphia Phillies 104-58
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Last season, the Phils went 97-65, and we all know what happened to them in the offseason.
The Phillies acquired Cliff Lee during the offseason to create the Fab Four, the True Core Four, R2C2, whatever you want to call it, but it is hands down the best pitching staff in baseball.
They say pitching wins championships, so the Phils are due for a great season.
Last season, the Phillies’ lineup and bullpen was plagued by injuries, but this season won’t be as bad as last.
So far, Domonic Brown and Chase Utley have been injured, but compared to last year, that’s nothing.
Almost every single starter for the Phils spent time on the DL in 2010, but now that they are back and—for the most part—healthy, they should have a better offense too.
Sure, the Phillies lost Werth, but they still have Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown, when he gets healthy, to replace him.
Last season, Jayson Werth was not clutch AT ALL. Werth hit sub .200 with runners in scoring position and had very few RBIs and home runs compared to his standard season.
These factors culminate into the Phillies winning seven more games and easily breaking 100 wins.
Prediction: The Phillies will win 100 games, win the NL East and will make a minor deal or two during the season.
Schedule for the Series
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NL Central: Saturday 3/12
NL West: Monday 3/14
AL East: Wednesday 3/16
AL Central: Friday 3/18
AL West: Sunday 3/20
Postseason: Tuesday 3/22
