Every season, NFL teams do countless hours of research on college players available for the April NFL Draft. Some teams begin their research in October after winning only a game or two out of their first six or seven. Others don’t begin to think about the draft in too much detail until their playoff run is complete.
Regardless of when they begin their in depth research and analysis, general managers and head coaches look for three main things in any player they decide to draft: Potential, impact on the team’s success, and longevity. Of course there are other factors such as character and health that come into play, but it all starts with the three aforementioned qualities.
The first three rounds of the NFL Draft are filled with big names from big programs. Their potential and instant impact ratings are through the roof. Fans in Oakland want to draft the big-time USC back that they’ve seen dominate the collegiate landscape for the past few years. Football enthusiasts in Miami want their Dolphins’ to draft the quarterback from Florida who’s won a Heisman. Though the on-the-field impact is of most importance, GMs are influenced by the owners to also draft a player who will have an off-the-field impact; as in bring in attention and jersey sales.
Quarterbacks and running backs are arguably the two most known players on their respective teams. They also often have the most impact on a team’s success or failure in the eyes of the fans. Both positions carry a very public image in which they are judged right away as a success or failure. While it is agreed by many that quarterbacks are nothing more than a hit or miss in the first round, people don’t seem to have the same conception about running-backs.
Fans and media alike tend to think a runningback taken on the first day of the draft is more likely to be a success story than a bust. Little attention is given to backs out of small schools drafted in the later rounds. The truth of the matter is you are just as likely to find a stud runningback in the last four rounds as you are in the first three.
Take the 2005 draft for example. It was lauded as a very top heavy draft filled with star power and untapped potential. General Managers, Coaches and fans were especially awed by the runningback selection. Among the possibilities for teams in the top five of the selection board were Cedric Benson, a Heisman trophy contender from the University of Texas along with the duo from undefeated Auburn University—Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams.
The first day of the draft also featured the likes of J.J. Arrington, a standout from the University of California, Frank Gore out of the University of Miami, and former National Champion Maurice Clarett from Ohio State University. Each runningback, with perhaps the exception of Clarett, was seen as an every down back that could produce 1,000 yard seasons immediately. The widespread consensus was the running-backs in this draft were a “can’t miss”.
18 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Nacho Ponce 9 months ago
Nice job. Very well written and exposed. I agree with that idea that big college players are overrated. I'm picking it.
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DONTREL QUINN 9 months ago
McFadden and Jones you gone get your monies worth
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Shaun Ahmad 9 months ago
People said that after Cadillac Williams' first season also. You never know with injuries.
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Raj Kamruddin 9 months ago
Good article.
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Buddy Smith 9 months ago
You make great points. Let's not forget how much money teams have to pay first round picks...and all thr pressure that comes with that money. It must be easier for guys who don't have to answer questions from the media as they are learning the game.
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Shaun Ahmad 9 months ago
Absolutely. The guys who are thrown into the mix based on their draft status or salary often don't get a chance to take time to develop and learn the skills needed to be a successful back. It's the same with quarterbacks, but I suppose that comes with the territory of being a major public face; something both QBs and RBs taken in the first three rounds are.
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John Scott 9 months ago
you forgot about Matt Forte for the 08 list!! Kevin Smith?
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Farooq Ahmed 9 months ago
Matt Forte could well win rookie of the year; he could be a great NFL RB, he has it all size, speed, power, elusiveness and he's a very humble guy. I don't think the bears will have any problems with him like they did with Benson.
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Ari Horing 9 months ago
Chris Johnson?
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Shaun Ahmad 9 months ago
Keep in mind that this wasn't a list of the 2008 backs. I just mentioned a few of the lesser known ones at the end to further a point; just as Barber and Jacobs were lesser known to the common public back in 2005.
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Craig Garrison Sr 9 months ago
Good job Shaun!
I along with many others have long believed that the running back position is ALMOST never worth a first round pick for the reasons you so eloquently outlined here. If you take a look even further back, you will find the overall percentages are about the same. There are going to be some that turn out to be worth the high price a first round draft pic demands, but they are not well represented by sheer numbers.
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Shaun Ahmad 9 months ago
Thanks Craig. Especially considering the fact that so many teams are going to a two back system where an RB doesn't have to carry the ball 25-30 times a game, it makes it even less important to draft a RB in the first round when you can pick up one in the second and one in the fifth, while addressing other needs like a lineman or linebacker with the first rounder.
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Bob Fletcher 9 months ago
Good read! But what about Jonathan Stewart?
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Anthony Evgenidis 9 months ago
Very detailed outlook Shaun and there are certainly plenty of well thought out points. I just wanted to mention there are a few things NFL scouts cannot measure or keep a statistic of and that is heart, chip on a player's shoulder, ability to deal with adversity.
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Osi Umenyiora 9 months ago
Diamonds in the ruff? Is this Scooby Doo?
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Ian Philip 9 months ago
Look at the San Diego Chargers' Theory:
Take the top runner in all of college football: LT, Mike Turner The Burner, & Darren Sproles
They stole all three players.
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DONTREL QUINN 9 months ago
Cadillac just got all the glory Ronnie Brown was the man at Auburn. Cadillac never has been able to stay healthy
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Osi Umenyiora 9 months ago
It's hard to say the Giants blundered with Ryan Grant when they had three other backs on the roster who are at least as good as he is. It's not like they could have created a 54th roster spot for him, or that he would have had any serious trade value at the time. Green Bay was fortunate to get him but in the end when facing off on the same field in the NFC Championship Game last year the guys the Giants did keep did a hell of a lot better than Grant did.
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