Every season, NFL teams do countless hours of research on college players available for the April NFL Draft. Some teams begin their research in October after winning only a game or two out of their first six or seven. Others don’t begin to think about the draft in too much detail until their playoff run is complete.
Regardless of when they begin their in depth research and analysis, general managers and head coaches look for three main things in any player they decide to draft: Potential, impact on the team’s success, and longevity. Of course there are other factors such as character and health that come into play, but it all starts with the three aforementioned qualities.
The first three rounds of the NFL Draft are filled with big names from big programs. Their potential and instant impact ratings are through the roof. Fans in Oakland want to draft the big-time USC back that they’ve seen dominate the collegiate landscape for the past few years. Football enthusiasts in Miami want their Dolphins’ to draft the quarterback from Florida who’s won a Heisman. Though the on-the-field impact is of most importance, GMs are influenced by the owners to also draft a player who will have an off-the-field impact; as in bring in attention and jersey sales.
Quarterbacks and running backs are arguably the two most known players on their respective teams. They also often have the most impact on a team’s success or failure in the eyes of the fans. Both positions carry a very public image in which they are judged right away as a success or failure. While it is agreed by many that quarterbacks are nothing more than a hit or miss in the first round, people don’t seem to have the same conception about running-backs.
Fans and media alike tend to think a runningback taken on the first day of the draft is more likely to be a success story than a bust. Little attention is given to backs out of small schools drafted in the later rounds. The truth of the matter is you are just as likely to find a stud runningback in the last four rounds as you are in the first three.
Take the 2005 draft for example. It was lauded as a very top heavy draft filled with star power and untapped potential. General Managers, Coaches and fans were especially awed by the runningback selection. Among the possibilities for teams in the top five of the selection board were Cedric Benson, a Heisman trophy contender from the University of Texas along with the duo from undefeated Auburn University—Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams.
The first day of the draft also featured the likes of J.J. Arrington, a standout from the University of California, Frank Gore out of the University of Miami, and former National Champion Maurice Clarett from Ohio State University. Each runningback, with perhaps the exception of Clarett, was seen as an every down back that could produce 1,000 yard seasons immediately. The widespread consensus was the running-backs in this draft were a “can’t miss”.
Fast forward three years, since that seems to be a fair time to gauge whether a player is on the road to success or the opposite, and you will find that only two of the nine running-backs drafted in the first round are of any significance today.
Gore has developed into a very strong back for San Francisco and has lived up to his potential while staying healthy, earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Brown has had a very up and down beginning to his career, as he has shown bursts of talent as recently as last week against the Patriots in which he had a career high and team record five touchdowns. But up to that point, he broke 1,000 yards in a season only once and missed 12 games over the past two years.
Benson, the No. 4 overall pick, was released earlier this year by the Chicago Bears





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