NFL Draft 2011: Jake Locker Is a Safe Pick for Washington Redskins in 1st Round

The NFL draft is less than a month away and, lockout or not, teams will be making their selections come April 28. The Washington Redskins are in the market for, among other things, a franchise quarterback. A class of prospects with nagging questions does not offer much reassurance for a team that cannot afford a miss with their pick.

Jake Locker is not without his problems, but he has all the tools to be a successful quarterback under Mike Shanahan.

Picking Locker 10th overall is nothing short of lunacy by most standards, but therein lies the beauty of it all. The Redskins could easily trade out of the 10th spot and earn a much-needed draft pick in the third or fourth round. Locker isn't particularly high on many boards, but there are plenty of teams who would love to get their hands on a top-10 talent, and would gladly give up a pick or two to get it.

Washington is in a position of power for once in its draft history, and it would be foolish not to take advantage of it.

The issue most commonly cited when talking about Locker is his supposed regression in the Huskies' switch from a spread offense to a pro-style offense. Looking at the numbers alone, there isn't that big of a difference between his 2009 statistics and his 2010 statistics. His yardage total dropped from 2,900 to 2,265, touchdowns from 21 to 17 and completion percentage from 58.2 to 55.4.

Analysis of the tape on his senior season shows an uncertainty in the offense, which is to be expected in the first and only season he played in that pro-style system.

If you look at the other "top" quarterbacks in this draft class, Locker doesn't look quite as bad as some are playing him up to be. He doesn't have the character issues of Ryan Mallett, the inexperience of Cam Newton or the enigmatic rise to eminence of Blaine Gabbert. Just last year it was Locker being touted as the top pick, but he decided to stick around for his senior year at Washington.

Who's to say Newton or Gabbert would have fared so well if they stayed for their senior seasons?

It seems as though Andrew Luck's decision to stay in school left this draft class without a quarterback worthy of the No. 1 overall selection wrap. In his wake, Luck left the spotlight lingering on the seemingly unimpressive quarterback class.

Locker took a lot of heat for not capitalizing on his high draft stock last season, and now he's seen as a risk as a first-round quarterback.

A pessimist would see Locker's struggles with the pro-style offense as a red flag for his lack of preparedness for the next level. An optimist looks at his senior season as one season fewer that an NFL team will have to spend teaching Locker the basics of the pro-style offense.

Change isn't easy, and Locker's numbers reflect that, but now his feet are wet and he's that much closer to being able to dive into the NFL as a starter.

From a purely physical standpoint, Locker is easily one of the best athletes at his position. He has good size, above-average speed and mobility for a quarterback, and he has good arm strength. In the Shanahan offense, mobile quarterbacks are generally successful.

John Elway may not have been the fleetest of foot in his day, but he could get outside the pocket and make plays down the field in the Shanahan offense.

More recently, Jay Cutler excelled at rolling out by design and exploiting the chaos it created in the defensive scheme. Locker doesn't quite have the arm strength that Elway or Cutler tout, but he is more mobile, which means he'll be able to make plays with his legs that the others would have made with their arms.

Locker is multidimensional in a way that makes him the ideal candidate for the Redskins out of this year's quarterback class. He is a balanced threat, as opposed to the run-favoring Newton or pure-passing Mallett.

The Senior Bowl was Locker's chance to redeem himself from his five-completion Holiday Bowl performance against Nebraska. He didn't have the great performance many quarterbacks do under the ideal circumstances of the Senior Bowl, but he certainly isn't the first player to underwhelm at the event.

Mechanics are always an issue with quarterbacks in the draft. They either have a windup, don't set their feet or square their shoulders on every throw. It was Mel Kiper, Jr. who said Aaron Rodgers was overly mechanical and the second-best quarterback in the 2005 NFL draft.

Experts aren't always right, and the production a player has at the college level is only a fraction of what goes into being a successful NFL player.

The Redskins have a lot of needs, and a quarterback is definitely one of them. Nothing says any of the other potential picks are any more or less likely to bust than Locker, so the risk remains no matter the direction the team goes. Washington has had its fair share of hits and misses in the last decade of drafts, but so has every team in the NFL.

Locker has his detractors and his supporters, but they don't dictate the progress he makes once he starts his NFL career. Perhaps Locker's fall from draft grace will be the motivation he'll need to shake the doubts and be the player everyone envisioned him being last season.