2011 NFL Draft: How the Detroit Lions Can Benefit from a Free Agency Lockout

Save your angry comments.

Not only am I not advocating an NFL lockout in 2011, I personally think it would be one of the worst possible things to happen both to American football, and to the Detroit Lions, who might make their first legitimate playoff push if the 2011 season happens.

That being said, there may be a silver lining here.

The Detroit Lions are among a number of teams that likely will not be major players in the free agency market this year. They'll take a couple of guys from the middle-tier, but this is a team being built through the draft. They won't be throwing out a superstar's paycheck to get the likes of Nnamdi Asomugha, Champ Bailey or Chad Greenway.

Those top-tier guys are not on Detroit's menu, but somebody somewhere is going to sign them, and they will expect them to fill a big hole on the team.

But what if there's a lockout? If no collective bargaining agreement is reached by March, free agency 2011 will cease to exist, at least until there is a collective bargaining agreement.

So let's assume the lockout happens, and it extends beyond the 2011 NFL Draft. Since the draft is happening on schedule, lockout or no, it's very possible that the NFL Draft will happen first.

If the NFL Draft happens before free agency, that will mean the first opportunity each NFL team has to replenish their rosters and fill holes will be the draft itself, not free agency.

Normally, the draft comes after about a month-and-a-half of free agency, where teams have had a chance to fill the gaping hole left by a star's expiring contract, or fix an existing weakness on the roster, or whatever needs to be fixed.

In other words, the 2011 NFL Draft could be chock full of teams full of holes, and teams with holes (especially teams expecting to reach the playoffs) reaching for position players that fill a need. And whenever there are teams reaching for position players, there's talent falling through the gaps.

To illustrate this point, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have, among other things, an aging secondary and suspect depth at wide receiver. However, Jerry Jones has very few qualms about dishing out a large free-agent contract for some star power, and the Cowboys would therefore be a prime landing spot for, say, Nnamdi Asomugha or Chad Ochocinco.

Of course, in this scenario, the Cowboys would not get a chance to fill one of those needs before the draft, and thus would feel compelled to fill both in the draft. After all, you're guaranteed to get whoever you pick in the draft. There's no guarantee whatsoever that free agents will sign with you, no matter how much money you offer.

So which one do the Cowboys find more important? Do they reach for Julio Jones, leaving Prince Amukamara on the board? Or do they go a step further and take Nate Solder to replace the sieve-like Marc Colombo?

Or how about the Bears? The Bears were carried by their defense this year, but that defense is aging. In addition, the offensive line is atrocious.

Either of these needs should be addressed by the Bears with the 29th pick, but they also need help at wide receiver, especially now that Jay Cutler is going to find himself under the magnifying glass.

The possibilities are endless, and they exist throughout the draft, top to bottom. So what does all this have to do with the Lions? Consider the Lions draft strategy over the past two years.

Draft talent, not need.

If they stick to that philosophy with only a couple of minor amendments, the Lions stand to make a killing in this year's draft.

Now it's true that the Lions, too, have needs. Towards the end of last season, the Lions were pulling people out of the stands to play linebacker and cornerback.

It's also true that the Lions would probably be foolish to pass on Von Miller to reach for a cornerback (say, Brandon Harris?) who doesn't belong in the top 15, just because the Lions "need" a cornerback.

This draft could be absolutely full of reaches like we haven't seen in years, and if the Lions hold steady with their strategy of drafting the best player available, they could very easily come out with a handful of huge value picks.

Of course, there are some limits to this strategy. Just because Jake Locker is available and theoretically the best player on the board doesn't mean you take him.

But maybe they end up with a wide receiver in the second round when they "needed" a cornerback. And what if that receiver was Titus Young, a projected first-rounder?  What if they ended up with Florida's Mike Pouncey to shore up the interior line? What if there's a decent corner prospect in the fourth round, but there's also a tight end who should have gone in the late first?

None of these picks would address the Lions' biggest needs at that time, but neither did Brandon Pettigrew or Louis Delmas, two of the most glaring examples of the Lions picking "talent" over "need."

What was the result of those picks?

Lots of fans wanted Michael Oher with the Pettigrew pick. Pettigrew was second on the team in receptions in 2010, while Oher started 2009 at right tackle, then struggled at left tackle in 2010.

Delmas has become a team leader and one of the most consistent performers on defense for the Lions, whereas Rey Maualuga, the middle linebacker many (myself included) wanted to see picked in his stead, has been generally mediocre, has suffered a season-ending broken ankle and has been arrested on a DUI.

Yet when the Lions made those picks, they really "needed" a middle linebacker and an offensive tackle. But instead of taking a middle linebacker or an offensive tackle, they took the best football player they could get their hands on, and each has paid dividends.

If the Lions can keep from overreacting to the holes in their team (as some teams surely will, for fear that they'll be stuck with C.C. Brown at strong safety if they don't draft someone better), they can improve their overall talent level by a wide margin while other teams scramble to satisfy team needs.

While the Bears and Jets and the like try reloading via the draft before their window closes, Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz can sit back and snipe at the top of the big board. The Lions are certainly in better shape than they were two years ago, but they're not so good that they can afford to pass on talent if a great one falls to them.

Maybe if they play this draft right, they will be in 2012.