Saturday Night Rematch For The Ages: Fantasy Breakdown of The Jets vs Colts

Jeremy AlpertSenior Analyst IIJanuary 8, 2011

Wild Card Weekend Matchup:  New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

Rankings based on top 10 QBs, 17 RBs, 28 WRs and 12 TEs

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New York Jets

 Jets Schedule 


Opponent Final 2010 Defensive Ranks

Indianapolis Pass Defense – 2010: Yards Allowed/Game 13th (215 Yds/Gm) - TDs Allowed T-9th (22)

Indianapolis Rush Defense – 2010: Yards Allowed/Game 25th (127.0 Yds/Gm) – TDs Allowed T-20th (14)


New York Jets Offensive Cast

Mark Sanchez (QB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 8)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 278/507 – for 3,291 yards, 17 TDs & 13 INTs

Sanchez won’t have to play in the cold this Saturday, but that doesn’t mean his numbers will end up much better than they have been lately.

In the last five games Sanchize played in (played just one series in Week 17 to rest his ailing shoulder), he totaled two touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging just 197 yards/game.

With the Colts rush D being pretty weak and Mark’s shoulder still not 100 percent, look for Rex Ryan to pound Shonn Greene and LT21 all game long, keeping Sanchez’s usage to a minimum.


Shonn Greene (RB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 4)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 185 carries for 766 yards & 2 TDs || 16 receptions for 120 yards & 0 TDs

Shonn Greene is rested and ready to rumble, which is exactly what the Jets were planning for all year long. 

With Greene’s carries being kept on the light side throughout the year, it’s finally “go-time” for the beefy young running back.

Shonn made his presence known on the big stage of the NFL Playoffs last year, and I expect him to do the same with around 20 carries or so this Saturday.


LaDainian Tomlinson (RB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 6)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 219 carries for 914 yards & 6 TDs || 52 receptions for 368 yards & 0 TDs

The Jets counted on LaDainian getting them here, but don’t expect him to take on the ‘feature back’ role from here on out. 

He’ll still see around 15-20 touches in this game, which should be good for around 100 total yards against a middling Colts defense, but look for LT21 to be sitting shotgun in New York’s running back by committee this weekend.


Santonio Holmes (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 10)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 52 receptions for 746 yards & 6 TDs

When the Jets DO pass the ball, expect to see Holmes featured on a bunch of underneath routes for a couple of reasons. 

First, Sanchez’s shoulder isn’t strong enough at this point to throw the ball deep with any sort of accuracy. 

Second, the Colts pass rush can get to the QB in a hurry, so less risky plays like a quick slant or WR screen are more likely to be called than fly patterns. 

This plays to Santonio’s strengths, so the opportunity should be there for the former Super Bowl MVP to shine.


Braylon Edwards (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 17)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 53 receptions for 904 yards & 7 TDs

Mark Sanchez’s arm is too weak at this point to heave it downfield to Braylon, so unless a lucky pass falls into his lap, don’t expect a whole hell of a lot from the all-or-nothing type receiver this weekend.


Jerricho Cotchery (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 20)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 41 receptions for 433 yards & 2 TDs

Jerricho gets his targets by being the most dependable WR on the team, but with the Jets likely to employ a rush-heavy attack this Saturday night, he likely won’t do your fantasy team any favors.


Brad Smith (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 25)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 4 receptions for 44 yards & 0 TDs || 38 carries for 299 yards & 1 TD

Smith has been used in multiple fashions this year and will continue to take on the role of ‘Jack-of-all-Trades’ come Saturday.  Expect at least a couple of runs with maybe a pass and a catch sprinkled in, but his real value comes on special teams. 


Dustin Keller (TE Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 3)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 55 receptions for 687 yards & 5 TDs

The Colts have been pretty loose in guarding tight ends this year, giving up an average of five catches a game and a TE touchdown every other week. 

Since the first four weeks of the season, Keller has been less than stellar to say the least, but the Jets got him the ball seven times for 79 yards in his last game, so look for him to build on the momentum as Sanchez’s dump-off guy this weekend.


Indianapolis Colts

 Colts Schedule 


Opponent Final 2010 Defensive Ranks

New York Jets Pass Defense – 2010: Yards Allowed/Game 6th (201 Yds/Gm) - TDs Allowed T-19th (24)

New York Jets Rush Defense – 2010: Yards Allowed/Game 3rd (90.9 Yds/Gm) – TDs Allowed T-12th (11)


Indianapolis Offensive Cast

Peyton Manning (QB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 4)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 450/679 – for 4,700 yards, 33 TDs & 17 INTs

Manning is on a pretty nice roll right now averaging 291 yards and throwing for multiple TDs in each of his last seven games. 

In last year’s playoffs, Peyton absolutely destroyed the Jets throwing for 377 yards with three TDs while putting up a 123.6 QB Rating. 

The Jets may be thought of as having a stifling pass D, but don’t believe the hype.  You can bet Manning doesn’t and will prove otherwise in this one.


Joseph Addai (RB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 7)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 116 carries for 495 yards & 4 TDs || 19 receptions for 124 yards & 0 TDs

Addai might not have been around much lately (only played in half the games this year), but you can bet the Colts remember just how much his skills are worth to the team. 

The offense has been easing him back into action the past couple of weeks with the idea of turning him loose whenever he proved to be ready. 

Well, he’s ready, so expect a good 15-20 touches with a good chance of a goal-line TD Saturday night.


Dominic Rhodes (RB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 12)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 37 carries for 172 yards & 0 TDs || 1 reception for 4 yards & 0 TDs

The former Indianapolis 1,000-yard rusher was picked up prior to Week 15 due to injuries in the backfield, but Rhodes has played so well that he seems to have found himself back in the mix for the playoffs. 

He won’t get a ton of carries, but in this explosive Colts offense, he’ll always have a chance to score a TD.


Donald Brown (RB Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 15)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 129 carries for 497 yards & 2 TDs || 20 receptions for 205 yards & 0 TDs

Except for his Week 15 game against the Jaguars, Donald was pretty awful this season. 

He still has a ton of potential and is the fastest of the Colts RBs, but he won’t get much of a chance to do anything this weekend unless Addai or Rhodes get injured during the game (which is always a possibility).


Pierre Garcon (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 2)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 67 receptions for 784 yards & 6 TDs

Garcon, not Wayne, was the receiver doing the most damage in last year’s playoff meeting between these two teams.

I’m not expecting him to repeat his 11-catch, 151-yard with a TD performance, but if the Jets decide to put Revis Island on Reggie Wayne and Manning starts out hot, Garcon could easily surpass the 100-yard mark again with another possible TD.


Reggie Wayne (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 6)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 111 receptions for 1,355 yards & 6 TDs

If Wayne is shadowed by Darrelle Revis all game, he might be held to merely average numbers this weekend.  If not, he’ll get over 10 targets and come up big for the Colts.  It’s really that simple.


Blair White (WR Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 14)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 36 receptions for 355 yards & 5 TDs

With Collie out for the playoffs, the door is open for the Blair White Project to walk through. 

His potential as the third wide receiver on this team is for higher than those on other teams, especially when you look at what Collie did to the Jets in last year’s playoff game (seven catches, 123 yards, one TD). 

He’s not as good as Austin is, but Manning loves to use his slot guys, particularly in the red-zone.


Jacob Tamme (TE Playoff Week 1 Ranking: No. 1)

Final 2010 Season Stats: 67 receptions for 631 yards & 4 TDs

The Jets have been pretty good in defending tight ends this year, but against teams that use their tight end as much as the Colts do (like New England and Houston), they faltered. 

Expect Tamme to come through with some really nice numbers this Saturday night.