New England Patriots Vs. Indianapolis Colts: Third Downs Key For Both Defenses

The New England Patriots have done a lot of things well this season. It generally takes a bit of that to go 7-2 to start the season. One thing they have not done well is stop opponents from converting third downs.

We’ve heard the point of the Patriots’ poor third-down defense beaten like a dead horse (bad pun for the Colts game? Yes please!)

The Patriots allow a league-worst 47.5 percent conversions on third down on defense, and the Colts convert 42.7 percent of their attempts on third down offensively.

The Patriots stop third downs with 9.2 percent more frequency at home than on the road, so there’s that blue ribbon, but the Colts aren’t much different at home than on the road offensively on third down (a difference of less than two percent).

The Patriots give up a whopping 66.9 percent of their first-down conversions through the air, and the Colts pick up almost 70 percent of their first downs through the air, as well.

But hold your horses, Colts fans.

We all know that one of the keys to beating the Colts is keeping their offense off the field, and Bill Belichick and the Patriots know this first-hand. This season especially, Tom Brady and the Patriots have been great at putting together long drives that take the wind out of a defense’s sails in a hurry.

It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Patriots have a much better chance to win when they sustain drives and win the time of possession battle.

It could, in fact, be the third-down defense of the Colts that determines the outcome of this game.

It goes without saying that the Colts defense is predicated on its speed. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have both already acknowledged this in radio interviews this week.

Belichick was asked in a radio interview on WEEI about the Colts defense in comparison to the other defenses they've faced this year, and said, "they're different than any defense we've played against this year...they have a lot of fast guys that can pursue quickly to the ball, and it looks like those zones underneath are open but they close very quickly." He went on to say that they're a very tough defense to play against when they have a lead.

So how, besides not giving up the lead, can the Patriots beat this defense? It would stand to reason that the best way to beat them is to slow them down with long drives that wear them out. And the numbers might favor the Patriots in that regard.

Get ready to wrap your head around some very revealing stats.

The Patriots have converted 42.9 percent of their third downs into first downs this season. The Colts defense gives up 38.4 percent conversions on third down, which isn't terrible (ranks 16th in the league), but the disparity between their home and road numbers? A whopping 19.6 percent.

The Patriots know that the Colts' quick defense could be the bane of their offensive existence on Sunday afternoon.

But no matter how quick they are, they’ll start to slow down if they’re on the field all day.

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