2010 NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions

Each Tuesday morning, Whatifsports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win Percentage), average score and comprehensive box score link.

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions, and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2010 NFL season.

Check out our 2010 NFL Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week and find Locks and Upsets of the Week.

Game of the Week: Patriots at Steelers

It's been noted that the NFL's greatest attribute is parity. However, this characteristic only partially enlightens one to the beauty of professional football. For it's not the perceived equality in team performance; rather, it's the uncertainty and ambiguity that begets the league's homology.

Case in point: the New England Patriots. Going into Week 9, the Pats were the prohibitive favorites in the AFC, thanks to five straight wins and a 6-1 record. The continuing implementation of Deion Branch into the offense and return of All-Pro Logan Mankins from his season-long holdout promised to cement New England's status as Super Bowl contenders.

So it was apropos that the Patriots laid the proverbial egg in Cleveland, receiving a spanking to the tune of 34-14.

The New England defense made Browns back Peyton Hillis look like the second coming of Earl Campbell as Hillis gained 184 yards on the ground to go along with two touchdowns. Tom Brady looked flustered in the pocket and completed just 52.8 percent of his pass attempts on the day. Rookie Rob Gronkowski wasn't doing Brady any favors, as the tight end had some key drops and fumbled near the goal line. To add injury to insult, kicker Stephen Gostkowski suffered a quad injury and is projected to miss the next few weeks of action.

The Steelers can sympathize with the Patriots' plight. Before the Steelers' Halloween showdown in the Superdome, many pigskin pundits believed Pittsburgh to be the leading candidate for AFC representation in Dallas. The team had gone 3-1 in the league-mandated absence of starter Ben Roethlisberger, with their only loss coming in a hard-fought battle against divisional foe Baltimore.

When Roethlisberger returned, the offense appeared to have never missed a beat, as the former Miami Redhawk threw three touchdowns in a 28-10 victory over Cleveland. The Steelers followed this performance with a 23-22 road win in Miami, albeit slightly tainted as Pittsburgh was the beneficiary of a late fumble call by the referees.

With Pittsburgh sitting at 5-1, employing a defense reminiscent of the Steel Curtain and with their signal-caller back at the helm, some prognosticated the Steelers to run the table to a 15-1 mark.

Validating that "momentum" is fictitious in the NFL, the Steelers were soundly put to sleep by the Saints, 20-10, in Week 8. New Orleans was 4-3 at the time, coming off a discouraging loss to lowly Cleveland. Roethlisberger and the rest of the offense looked discombobulated and out of sync, while the defense could not contain the high-octane aerial attack of Drew Brees.

Yet, despite these recent slip-ups, both of these squads (along with the Jets and Ravens) find themselves atop the AFC. The Patriots are mirroring their formula for success in the early 2000s: mainly, spreading the ball around on offense, playing "bend-but-don't-break" defense and grinding out ugly victories. While Brady hasn't put up the dazzling statistics of years' past, the New England quarterback is posting a 95.7 QB rating and has thrown just four picks on the year.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's foundation lies in its D, which is surrendering a league-low 15.4 points per contest. In the absence of Roethlisberger, running back Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a star, compiling 702 yards and seven touchdowns in 2010.

So, who wins the battle of conference contenders? According to the WhatIfSports NFL simulation engine, Pittsburgh comes out on top 87.1-percent of the time, by an average score of 28-14. Check out the rest of this week's projections below:

NFL Week 10
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Dallas Cowboys	10.4	14	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	89.6	29	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	12.9	14	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	87.1	28	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	26.1	13	Boxscore
@ San Francisco 49ers	73.9	20	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	31.1	17	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	68.9	23	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	40.7	19	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	59.3	22	Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals	42.9	19	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	57.1	22	Simulate Game
Detroit Lions	52.8	16	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	47.2	15	Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers	54.3	18	Boxscore
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	45.7	17	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	57.5	24	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	42.5	21	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	66.3	30	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	33.7	24	Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles	71.5	26	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	28.5	18	Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs	72.3	26	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	27.7	19	Simulate Game
New York Jets	72.9	24	Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns	27.1	16	Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans	90.6	29	Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins	9.4	14	Simulate Game