When I think betting advice I think of cheesy slummy guys in cheap pinstriped suits and gold watches, rings, necklaces, handkerchiefs, and broaches (the more gold the better baby), screaming bull**** into a television camera with the urgency of an oncoming apocalypse.
They spurt out retarded sayings, almost but not quite as irrelevant as “I’m 64 percent in my plays of the year when playing home dogs” or “Drew Brees is 5-2 ATS when playing on the 17th of a month starting with the letter S or N”.
Other “experts” crunch all the data they can into every pick, and tell you about how Team X has the 12th ranked blah, and is playing Team G with the 28th ranked blah, and this player is healthy now and…blah and blah and blah.
Listen, there are MIT grads writing complex mathematical algorithms that take into consideration wind speed and what these players ate for breakfast on game day, yet they can’t win against the spread.
So how can you win? How can you send little Timmy to an Ivy League school with money to spare? Its simple, follow these picks, they are guaranteed to pay off, or your money back. And hey, if not, little Timmy may not be college material anyway. Let that little ungrateful punk work for a living.
DETROIT PUSSYCATS (-3) – Meow. I’m all about backing one win teams who start quarterbacks who haven’t played yet this year, against NFC East opponents with winning records (the division with by far the best intra-division record over the past decade).
Here’s the deal, Washington is a well coached team with a sad, plodding offense. They wait for other teams to make mistakes, stay in the game, don’t make mistakes themselves, and try and win close games. I wouldn’t back this team on the road to win outright in any situation, and this is a game that puts that theory to the test.
The well rested baby cubs are explosive on offense, have played tight games all year, and will make enough big plays to take this one at home. They have playmakers at every level on offense, and a solid-ish defensive line to slow down the Washington run. NFL is about matchups, and the fact that the Lions stink at LB and in the defensive backfield shouldn’t kill them here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+5.5) – Two words. Purple Jesus. Two more. All day. Don’t be distracted by the Brett Fav-ray wildcard. If he can play, great, they have Brett Favre. If he can’t, there's Tarvaris Jackson.
Right now, this isn’t as much of a downgrade as one would think. Tarvaris would be playing with the “F-all of y’all guys I can play ball, and now I’m gonna show you” vibe, which has been known to elevate mediocre players for short spurts before.
If they hand the ball to the man-beast known as Adrian Peterson 25 times, they will compete. He was built in a lab as a military experiment. He demoralizes professional NFL athletes on a week to week basis. If he was wearing a saddle, you would mistake him for a horse while he was running.
If they get a little special-teams magic, they can win outright. Pray this goes to seven at some point and get paid off if two evenly matched teams play a close game. Throw in the Moss-Brady soap opera, and the entertainment value alone will pay for your losses.
SAN DIEGO SUPERCHARGERS (-3.5) – Money is overrated. Timmy will forgive you. They may do a good job of hiding it, but San Diego is talented.
This team can score a lot of points fast and they are at a level of desperation so deep that a loss puts them at the bottom of the second worst division in football, the AFC West.
The Tennessee Titans are traveling across the country for this game and are off next week. If they go down 10-0 early, they will be booking vacation plans from the locker room at halftime. Throw in the fact that their QB situation is up in the air (and both are seriously dinged up), and San Diego could very well roll…or not.
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