MLB Playoff Predictions: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Positional Matchups
Finally. With the completion of Sunday's Major League Baseball regular season schedule, we now know who's in, who's out, and which matchups to look forward to when playoff action commences Wednesday.
For some, season-long dreams were crushed, and in other cities, storied franchises will be returning to postseason baseball after a long time away, and feel good stories abound. A baseball prodigy once far-removed from the game due to his personal battles with substance abuse and addiction will make his playoff debut, as he helped lead his team to their first postseason appearance since 1999. Further east, legendary manager Bobby Cox, in his farewell to baseball, will try to lead his Atlanta Braves to World Series glory one last time.
A new crop of baseball's younger generation of marquee stars will also be making their first appearances on the game's grandest stage. With their victory over the heartbroken San Diego Padres on the season's final day, the San Francisco Giants return for the first time since the Barry Bonds era, led by two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum and rookie catcher Buster Posey making their playoff debuts.
Cincinnati's Joey Votto, a man who gave a valiant effort in a battle for a potential National League Triple Crown will see his first playoff action, as well as the Reds' first since 1995. Jason Heyward of the Braves will try to cap off his impressive rookie campaign with a successful postseason run.
All those potentially great stories aside, for the moment, our focus is on the American League Division Series. The Rangers had long had the AL West wrapped up, playing out the final two months of the regular season with little drama due to their sizable lead in the division. With their playoff appearance virtually locked up for quite some time, the Rangers were only left to wonder who their opposition would be, as the Rays and Yankees were locked in a heated battle for divisional supremacy until the very last day of the season.
As the Yankees sputtered in Boston, the Rays triumphantly finished out their season in Kansas City, celebrating their second division title in three years, after a decade of cellar dwelling in the big-money AL East.
Since the Yankees and Rays are unable to face each other due to both hailing from the AL East, the Rays, owners of the best record in baseball, will then face the division winner with the lowest winning percentage, rather than the wild card team. This configuration means that the Rangers will travel to St. Petersburg for the Wednesday opener of what should be a thrilling ALDS matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.
In anticipation of this meeting of two of baseball's most dynamic and well-rounded teams, let's take a look at the on-field matchups, position-by-position to find out which team has the edge in this leg of the ALDS.
First Base
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Texas Rangers
First-base has represented somewhat of a revolving door for the Rangers in 2010. Initially, Chris Davis manned the position, but after his severe struggles to begin the season, he found himself in the minors and Justin Smoak took over. Smoak was then traded to Seattle as a component in the Cliff Lee Trade, opening the door for Davis once again, who struggled just as he had earlier.
Near the end of July, 25-year-old prospect Mitch Moreland was promoted, and the Rangers acquired veteran Jorge Cantu from the Marlins to provide some experience and depth at first. Over the last few months of the season, Moreland and Cantu have split time, with Moreland making a late-season run to attempt to claim first base as his own.
With his late season success, Moreland figures to see much of the time at first, but in his limited MLB action, he struggled with LH pitching, making Cantu an attractive platoon partner in those situations. Cantu will likely see time against some tough LH pitching, and as a pinch-hitter late in games.
| Moreland | Bats LH | TEX | 173 PA | .255/.364/.469 | .833 OPS | 9 HR | 25 RBI | 121 OPS+ | |
| Cantu | Bats RH | FLA | 410 PA | .262/.310/.409 | .719 OPS | 10 HR | 54 RBI | 89 OPS+ | |
| TEX | 105 PA | .235/.279/.327 | .605 OPS | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 62 OPS+ | |||
| Davis | Bats Left | TEX | 136 PA | .192/.279/.292 | .571 OPS | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 54 OPS+ |
Tampa Bay Rays
A player typifying the ethos of the "all or nothing" slugger, Carlos Pena will see most of the action at first for Tampa. His prodigious power, yet penchant for striking out often make him quite an enigma, at times a vital, powerful threat in the heart of the order, and at others a flailing, no contact, strikeout-machine, swinging and missing at a prolific rate. His brilliant fielding at first always remains valuable however, making it difficult to sit him too often.
Against certain lefties though, he is likely to find himself on the bench due to his .179 average and .675 OPS against LH hurlers in 2010. Backup Dan Johnson is not dissimilar to Pena, as he is a lefty-swinging first-baseman, but with more gap-to-gap power than home run potential. Although he's a lefty as well, his splits against LH pitchers are better in a small sample size than Pena's, so he may be an option at times.
Tampa's roster flexibility could be a huge advantage here, as they have several infielders capable of playing multiple positions. Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist have both seen action at first, and could spell Pena in certain situations as well.
| Pena | Bats LH | TB | 582 PA | .196/.325/.407 | .732 OPS | 28 HR | 84 RBI | 102 OPS+ | |
| Johnson | Bats LH | TB | 140 PA | .198/.343/.414 | .757 OPS | 7 HR | 23 RBI | 110 OPS+ | |
| Zobrist | Bats Both | TB | 655 PA | .238/.346/.353 | .699 OPS | 10 HR | 75 RBI | 95 OPS+ | 24 SB |
| Rodriguez | Bats RH | TB | 378 PA | .251/.308/.397 | .705 OPS | 9 HR | 40 RBI | 95 OPS+ | 13 SB |
EDGE: Tampa Bay Rays
Pena's power, great glove and experience give Tampa the edge here. Johnson is a capable backup who has come through in the clutch down the stretch, and the versatility of the Rays roster gives them additional coverage and ability to mix and match late in games if necessary.
Second Base
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Texas Rangers
Following his first ever 30HR/30SB season in 2009, Ian Kinsler had just turned 28 and was expecting big things heading into his prime. Unfortunately for Kinsler, he didn't begin his 2010 season until April 30, and later a groin strain would sideline him again, totaling 59 games missed throughout the year. When on the field however, he was a dynamic player, getting on base, stealing bases, and playing strong defense at second. His power dipped this year to only 9 HR after a career high 31, but he far surpassed his career high in on-base percentage.
If Kinsler sees any recurrence of injury woes, Jorge Cantu, Andres Blanco, or Esteban German could help provide cover, depending upon which of the group Ron Washington includes on his postseason roster. Cantu struggled with the Rangers, but the resume is there to expect solid play out of him in a reserve role.
| Kinsler | Bats RH | TEX | 460 PA | .286/.382/.412 | .794 OPS | 9 HR | 45 RBI | 113 OPS+ | 15 SB |
| Cantu | Bats RH | FLA | 410 PA | .262/.310/.409 | .719 OPS | 10 HR | 54 RBI | 89 OPS+ | |
| TEX | 105 PA | .235/.279/.327 | .605 OPS | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 62 OPS+ | |||
| Blanco | Bats Both | TEX | 185 PA | .277/.330/.349 | .679 OPS | 0 HR | 13 RBI | 82 OPS+ | |
| German | Bats RH | TEX | 16 PA | .231/.375/.231 | .606 OPS | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 67 OPS+ | 4 SB |
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays possess a stable of young, athletic players all capable of playing second base. After Ben Zobrist's breakout campaign in 2009, the plan was to move him to right on a near permanent basis, but he has once again seen a significant portion of playing time at second. Sharing the spot with him, also in healthy doses were the ultra-versatile Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac.
In 2010, Rodriguez has started half the Rays games at second, with Zobrist and Brignac splitting the other half almost evenly. All three are capable defenders and offer offensive ability of varying degrees. Zobrist will most likely start in RF on most occasions, so I'll figure him more heavily into that positional evaluation.
| Rodriguez | Bats RH | TB | 378 PA | .251/.308/.397 | .705 OPS | 9 HR | 40 RBI | 95 OPS+ | 13 SB |
| Brignac | Bats LH | TB | 326 PA | .256/.307/.385 | .692 OPS | 8 HR | 45 RBI | 91 OPS+ | |
| Zobrist | Bats Both | TB | 655 PA | .238/.346/.353 | .699 OPS | 10 HR | 75 RBI | 95 OPS+ | 24 SB |
EDGE: Texas Rangers
If he is healthy during the postseason, the Rangers have the advantage with Kinsler. He has become a very good defender, with impressive range, can steal bases at a high rate, and is a productive bat in the front to middle of the order. His power dropped this year, and he has struggled since returning from his groin injury, but overall his game just edges out the trio of potential second-basemen that Tampa may run out there.
Shortstop
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Texas Rangers
In Elvis Andrus, the Rangers possess one of the most dynamic young players in the game today. After finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, he was named to the AL All-Star team in 2010. Although his power vanished, he reached base at a higher rate, and that's where the Rangers truly need young Elvis to improve his game, in order to best utilize his blazing speed on the basepaths.
They have plenty of other hitters to compensate for his low power production if he can get on base and play great defense. He still ranges all over the field making plays, possesses a strong arm, and cut down his error total from his rookie year. Although his second half offensive production dropped off considerably, he is still a threat with his bunting ability, improved patience, and running ability.
| Andrus | Bats RH | 674 PA | TEX | .265/.342/.301 | .643 OPS | 0 HR | 35 RBI | 75 OPS+ | 32 SB |
| Blanco | Bats Both | 185 PA | TEX | .277/.330/.349 | .679 OPS | 0 HR | 13 RBI | 82 OPS+ |
Tampa Bay Rays
2010 has been largely disappointing for Jason Bartlett following his fantastic breakthrough season last year. After hitting .320 with 14 HR and 30 SB, the Rays figured they had a shortstop solution for at least the next few years. Bartlett, however, has seen his performance regress in nearly every aspect in 2010. Whereas he had a 26 percent line drive rate last year, that number has dropped to 20.6 percent, and his ground ball percentage increased from 35 percent to 45 percent this season.
He has displayed little power, only slugging at a .350 rate and stealing only 11 bases. He is also listed near the bottom of all regular shortstops in most fielding statistical metrics this year. If he struggles mightily in October, either Brignac or Rodriguez could see time at SS, depending upon matchups.
| Bartlett | Bats RH | TB | 532 PA | .254/.324/.350 | .674 OPS | 4 HR | 47 RBI | 88 OPS+ | 11 SB |
| Rodriguez | Bats RH | TB | 378 PA | .251/.308/.397 | .705 OPS | 9 HR | 40 RBI | 95 OPS+ | 13 SB |
| Brignac | Bats LH | TB | 326 PA | .256/.307/.385 | .692 OPS | 8 HR | 45 RBI | 91 OPS+ |
EDGE: Texas Rangers
Andrus may have slowed down at the plate, after having a stellar first half, being named to the AL All-Star team, but he is still capable of making things happen atop the Rangers' lineup. His speed and defense give him a slight advantage over Bartlett. If this were last year, Bartlett may have gotten the nod, but his mysterious drop-off has given way for Andrus to edge ahead.
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Third Base
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Texas Rangers
Michael Young is one of those players who simply goes about his duties without ever drawing much attention to himself. Consistently putting together very solid offensive seasons with little fanfare, he made the ultimate team move when he sacrificed his shortstop position for the team cause, allowing rising star Elvis Andrus a clear path to the big leagues last year.
In 2010, Young has put together another productive year with the bat, but his defense has been exposed at third, as he ranks near the bottom in most defensive categories. The range of Andrus helps make up for a lack of range at third, but Young is unspectacular with the glove. Against Rays pitching this year, he hit only .118 in four games, not an impressive showing, but likely too small of a sample size to draw too many conclusions from. After 10 full seasons with the Rangers, this will be his career playoff debut.
| Young | Bats RH | TEX | 718 PA | .284/.330/.444 | .774 OPS | 21 HR | 91 RBI | 105 OPS+ | |
| Cantu | Bats RH | FLA | 410 PA | .262/.310/.409 | .719 OPS | 10 HR | 54 RBI | 89 OPS+ | |
| TEX | 105 PA | .235/.279/.327 | .605 OPS | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 62 OPS+ | |||
| German | Bats RH | TEX | 16 PA | .231/.375/.231 | .606 OPS | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 67 OPS+ | 4 SB |
Tampa Bay Rays
With the apparent decline of baseball's golden boy, Derek Jeter, Tampa may have the new "face of baseball" playing third-base for them. Excelling in all facets of the game, the soon-to-be 25-year-old product of Cal State-Long Beach just completed another fine season in his young MLB career.
One of the highest rated defensive 3B in the game, he displays tremendous range with a strong accurate arm. His power dipped slightly from last year, but his .294 average is a career high, and he drove in 100+ runs for the second consecutive year, while also stealing a career best 15 bases. Against the Rangers in 2010, he hit .417 with a massive OPS of 1.381, 2 HR and 10 RBI in only six games.
It remains to be seen whether the hitters after him will provide enough protection for him to see pitches to hit throughout the postseason. Longoria missed the last weekend of the season due to a quadriceps injury, but reports are that he worked out today and should be ready for Game One.
If Longoria is unable to go in the first game, the Rays will have to choose between Zobrist, Aybar, Rodriguez, and Brignac to hold down third until he returns.
| Longoria | Bats RH | TB | 661 PA | .294/.372/.507 | .879 OPS | 22 HR | 104 RBI | 142 OPS+ | 15 SB |
EDGE: Tampa Bay Rays
Young is a fine player and very good hitter, but not the game-changing talent that Longoria is. Power, speed, defense, leadership, Evan possesses all the attributes one would want in a player, and is a perfect candidate to lead his young Rays team to October glory. During his rookie year of 2008, Longo had a great playoff debut, hitting 6 HR with 11RBI and a 1.102 OPS over the first 11 games before being shut down by the Phillies in the World Series. If Longoria has an issue with his quad, that could drastically alter the Rays' fortunes, but as of now, all reports are that he is healthy to play.
Left Field
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Texas Rangers
Depending upon the opposition's pitching configuration, left field will see a rotating cast of characters for the Rangers. Against left-handed starters, Josh Hamilton will play center, with Nelson Cruz starting in left, and Jeff Francouer in right as we will see in Game One tomorrow. But, against right-handed starters, Hamilton will shift to left with Julio Borbon in center, with Cruz shifting to right.
David Murphy will also figure into the mix, as he can start in any of the three outfield spots as well, but is questionable to start the series due to his groin injury suffered in the last week of the season. Good defense and strong arms abound in the Texas outfield, especially in the Cruz, Hamilton, Francoeur lineup.
| Hamilton | Bats LH | TEX | 571 PA | .359/.411/.633 | 1.044 OPS | 32 HR | 100 RBI | 175 OPS+ | 8 SB |
| Cruz | Bats RH | TEX | 445 PA | .318/.374/.576 | .950 OPS | 22 HR | 78 RBI | 150 OPS+ | 17 SB |
| Murphy | Bats LH | TEX | 467 PA | .291/.358/.449 | .806 OPS | 12 HR | 65 RBI | 115 OPS+ | 14 SB |
Tampa Bay Rays
Carl Crawford could very well be the most thrilling player in Major League Baseball. His blistering speed, extraordinary defensive range, and lethal combination of contact and power make him a multi-faceted weapon capable of exploding at any moment throughout a game.
Whether he's chasing down deep drives in the left-center alley, blistering his own liners into the gaps, or treating the base-paths as his own personal track meet, Carl Crawford is a highlight waiting to happen. His raw athleticism and continually more refined baseball abilities are finally coalescing into a formidable blend as he enters his baseball prime.
After what was likely his finest season thus far, Carl now has the opportunity to make the post-season a showcase for his talents as he prepares to enter the free-agent market for the first time in his career. In their six matchups this year, Crawford only hit .222 with a .649 OPS against the Rangers, so he will be looking to turn that around as he enters only the second postseason of his career.
| Crawford | Bats LH | TB | 657 PA | .307/.356/.495 | .851 OPS | 19 HR | 90 RBI | 134 OPS+ | 47 SB |
EDGE: Tampa Bay Rays
If Josh Hamilton is playing left rather than center, then this is a more hotly contested position. However, since Hamilton will split time between left and center, then the edge in LF goes to Crawford. Considering Hamilton's recent injuries as well, and not knowing how fully recovered he might be, adds to the advantage in Tampa's favor. Controlling Crawford has to be one of Texas' primary objectives.
Centerfield
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Texas Rangers
Ideally for the Rangers, Hamilton will feel healthy enough to play centerfield regularly, giving them the ability to keep Cruz is RF and play Murphy in LF if his groin strain permits. Against LH pitchers, Hamilton is scheduled to play CF, with Cruz in LF, and Francoeur in RF. With a RH pitcher on the mound, Borbon will likely play center, with Hamilton shifting to LF, and Cruz in RF.
While a little less offensively daunting, the addition of Borbon adds another speedster to the lineup which changes the dynamic of the Texas attack. Borbon was also ranked third amongst all regular centerfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, playing a very effective CF. The health of Hamilton is a primary concern for Texas, and to advance deep into the playoffs, they will need to be able to count on their star to perform.
| Hamilton | Bats LH | TEX | 571 PA | .359/.411/.633 | 1.044 OPS | 32 HR | 100 RBI | 175 OPS+ | 8 SB |
| Borbon | Bats LH | TEX | 468 PA | .276/.309/.340 | .649 OPS | 3 HR | 42 RBI | 74 OPS+ | 15 SB |
| Murphy | Bats LH | TEX | 467 PA | .291/.358/.449 | .806 OPS | 12 HR | 65 RBI | 115 OPS+ | 14 SB |
Tampa Bay Rays
B.J. Upton may be the most enigmatic player in Major League Baseball. He has tantalized with his immense talents and diverse package of baseball tools, but habitually under-performs and frustrates with his apparent lack of effort and concentration at times. Since his breakthrough season in 2007, he has suffered through injury and inconsistency to continually remain a question mark. A change of scenery could be necessary to unlock the still only 26-year-old centerfielder's true potential. If that comes to fruition, Upton could still be a future superstar in this game.
| Upton | Bats RH | 610 PA | TB | .237/.322/.424 | .746 OPS | 18 HR | 62 RBI | 105 OPS+ | 42 SB |
| Jennings | Bats RH | 24 PA | TB | .190/.292/.333 | .625 OPS | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 74 OPS+ | 2 SB |
EDGE: Texas Rangers
Since Hamilton is to play center in the playoffs rather than left, this position has to go to the potential AL MVP. His all-around game trumps that of Upton's and in Borbon, Texas has a solid alternative that offers stellar defensive cover. Upton still has the potential to be a standout center-fielder, but he has yet to put together the tools to consistently produce results. Don't forget however, that Upton's surprising 2008 playoff performance looms as a reminder of his explosive potential and ability to dominate games if caught in a hot streak. In 16 postseason games he hit .288 with a .985 OPS, 7 home runs, 16 RBI, and 16 runs scored.
Right Field
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Texas Rangers
In certain Texas outfield alignments, Nelson Cruz will play right, with Julio Borbon in center, and Josh Hamilton in right. However, against left-handed starting pitchers, as they will face tomorrow in David Price, Cruz will shift to left, Hamilton to center, and Jeff Francoeur will play right, maximizing the Rh hitters in the Texas lineup against a lefty.
In Cruz, the Rangers have one of the best right-fielders in the league. He swings a mighty bat, but with a high average as well, can steal bases, has great defensive range, and a cannon for an arm. When he shifts to left, Francoeur fills in admirably, as he is good defensively and also has a rocket arm. His offense isn't what it was a few years ago in Atlanta, but he adjusted quickly to the AL, and apparently liked his new surroundings in Texas, as he hit the ground running with his new team, excelling at all facets of the game.
| Cruz | Bats RH | TEX | 445 PA | .318/.374/.576 | .950 OPS | 22 HR | 78 RBI | 150 OPS + | 17 SB |
| Francoeur | Bats RH | NYM | 447 PA | .237/.293/.369 | .662 OPS | 11 HR | 54 RBI | 80 OPS+ | 8 SB |
| TEX | 56 PA | .340/.357/.491 | .848 OPS | 2 HR | 11 RBI | 124 OPS+ |
Tampa Bay Rays
Ben Zobrist made the transition to the Rays semi-regular right-fielder after spending much of 2009 at 2B. He still spends time at various positions, but saw his most action in RF this year. He was one of the higher rated right-fielders in the game, displaying range, athleticism and a strong arm. His offense dipped in 2010, but his overall game makes him a versatile and highly valuable member of the Rays.
With Matt Joyce, the Rays have a highly competent replacement if Zobrist needs to move around the diamond. Joyce also displayed solid defensive ability and a strong arm, so they don't lose if Zobrist moves. He owns a powerful bat that could also see time at DH against RH starters and likely will be the first bat Joe Maddon turns to in a clutch pinch-hitting situation.
| Zobrist | BATS BOTH | TB | 655 PA | .238/.346/.353 | .699 OPS | 10 HR | 75 RBI | 95 OPS+ | 24 SB |
| Joyce | BATS LH | TB | 261 PA | .241/.360/.477 | .837 OPS | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 131 OPS+ |
EDGE: Tied
If Cruz was set to play right permanently, the edge would go to Texas, but since he will likely find himself in left several times against LH starters, then this position doesn't have a clear-cut winner. Francoeur played great in his short time in Texas, but if he reverts to his prior form, he is much less impressive.
Both offer good defense, range and a strong arm, with Cruz being the best all-around hitter of the crop. Zobrist's offense dropped off, but he was highly rated according to Ultimate Zone Rating stats, and he boasts a cannon for an arm. Joyce was also rated in the top 15 right-fielders, and possess a powerful LH bat that should see plenty of action throughout the playoffs as a reserve.
Catcher
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Texas Rangers
Much has changed in the catching situation for the Texas Rangers over the last year. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is in Boston, and young back-stops Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden have been bypassed in favor of veteran duo Benjie Molina and Matt Treanor. Although Molina is not the offensive threat he once was, he and Treanor provide the young Texas pitching staff with years of experience and leadership to draw from. Molina is also a World Series winner with the Angels in 2002, and a veteran of two other postseason runs with the Angels.
| Molina | Bats RH | SF | 221 PA | .257/.312/.332 | .644 OPS | 3 HR | 17 RBI | 74 OPS+ | |
| TEX | 195 PA | .240/.279/.320 | .599 OPS | 2 HR | 19 RBI | 60 OPS+ | |||
| Treanor | Bats RH | TEX | 272 PA | .211/.287/.308 | .595 OPS | 5 HR | 27 RBI | 60 OPS+ |
Tampa Bay Rays
Expectations for Dionner Navarro had been high for several years, but his potential never really developed into what many expected of him. His playing time was greatly reduced, and he was sent to the minors in favor of the John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach duo. Jaso has been a revelation for the Rays, playing solid defense and hitting better than expected, even manning the leadoff spot for Joe Maddon's squad at times. Against tough left-handed pitching Kelly Shoppach will get occasional starts. He hasn't hit well this year, but is only two years removed from a 21 HR, .865 OPS season in Cleveland. His veteran presence is the perfect balance for the rookie Jaso.
| Jaso | Bats LH | TB | 404 PA | .263/.372/.378 | .750 OPS | 5 HR | 44 RBI | 110 OPS+ | |
| Shoppach | Bats RH | TB | 187 PA | .196/.308/.342 | .650 OPS | 5 HR | 17 RBI | 81 OPS+ |
EDGE: Tied
Texas' experienced duo should be a benefit to the young pitchers in their pitching staff, but neither of them offers much offense. Their experience and defensive abilities should be enough in the offensively stacked Ranger lineup. Tampa Bay has the offensive advantage, with Jaso hitting well all year, and Shoppach, despite a down year, still capable of driving the ball. Overall the catching situation appears rather even for both teams.
Designated Hitter
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Texas Rangers
The Rangers made a master stroke by signing Vladimir Guererro as a free agent, bolstering the heart of their lineup, while simultaneously weakening that of their rival Angels. Despite an injury plagued 2009 for Vlad, the Rangers were willing to gamble that the veteran slugger who has always enjoyed great success in Arlington would bounce back and produce a productive season for them.
After looking like he was on his last legs for much of 2009, many thought that Vlad's best days were behind him, and he appeared to be a potentially risky signing for Texas. They had done their homework though. In his career, Vlad is a .345 hitter with 30 home runs and 96 RBI and a .996 OPS in the Ballpark, so bringing him to his favorite hitting stadium seemed like an obvious move, and it worked out just as the Rangers hoped. He was able to stay healthy and provide thunder in the middle of their order, even helping to carry the team when Hamilton and Cruz were out with various injuries.
| Vlad | Bats RH | TEX | 643 PA | .300/.345/.496 | .841 OPS | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 122 OPS+ |
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays saw two attempts at bringing in a veteran DH fail as Pat Burrell never made the transition to hitting AL pitching, and the oft-injured Hank Blalock stayed true to form and continued his injury plagued pattern he has developed throughout his career. The Rays could use the DH spot to cycle various players into the lineup depending upon pitching matchups, but Aybar and Joyce figure to see the most action there. Joyce and his powerful bat may see some starts at DH against RH starters, since he had a .910 OPS against them this year, but he only had 2 hits in 28 plate appearances against lefties, so he can easily be neutralized with a LH reliever. It is also worth keeping an eye on the health of Longoria's quad, because if he's not fully healthy, the Rays may opt to DH him in order to keep his bat in the lineup.
| Aybar | Bats Both | TB | 309 PA | .230/.309/.344 | .653 OPS | 6 HR | 43 RBI | 82 OPS+ | |
| Joyce | Bats LH | TB | 261 PA | .241/.360/.477 | .837 OPS | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 131 OPS+ |
EDGE: Texas Rangers
Vlad may not be the dynamic five-tool threat he once was, but his bat is as lethal as ever. Relieved of the rigors of playing the outfield for the most part, his body can handle the less demanding role of DH, leaving him free to focus on hitting. And hit he does. While you can occasionally get him to chase bad pitches, it's never a sure strategy to count on, as Vlad is capable of hitting pitches in nearly any zone, and doing so with authority. He may be unconventional in his approach, but as a DH, there may be no one better in the game right now.
Bench
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EDGE: Texas Rangers
The Rays bench boasts versatility, depending upon who is starting on any given day. Aybar and Brignac can both play multiple infield positions and can deliver clutch hits late in games. Dan Johnson has recently made himself a cult-hero in Tampa/St. Pete with big hits down the stretch, and Joyce is capable of delivering with the bat as well. Jennings offers speed and raw athleticism, and could be a valuable contributor even if he is highly inexperienced. Shoppach offers a veteran alternative the rookie Jaso, and although he didn't hit much this year, has pop in his bat.
Texas' bench holds the edge however due to their veteran experience. Murphy, Francoeur and Cantu are all capable of starting for many teams, and offer a deep reserve in order for Ron Washington to play matchups at any point in the game. Blanco and German can both play multiple positions and German has long been a valuable utility man for several teams. Treanor forms the other half of the highly experienced catching duo with Molina.
Texas Rangers Bench Players
| Blanco | Bats Both | TEX | 185 PA | .277/.330/.349 | .679 OPS | 0 HR | 13 RBI | 82 OPS+ | |
| Cantu | Bats RH | FLA | 410 PA | .262/.310/.409 | .719 OPS | 10 HR | 54 RBI | 89 OPS+ | |
| TEX | 105 PA | .235/.279/.327 | .605 OPS | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 62 OPS+ | |||
| Francoeur | Bats RH | NYM | 447 PA | .237/.293/.369 | .662 OPS | 11 HR | 54 RBI | 80 OPS+ | 8 SB |
| TEX | 56 PA | .340/.357/.491 | .848 OPS | 2 HR | 11 RBI | 124 OPS+ | |||
| German | Bats RH | TEX | 16 PA | .231/.375/.231 | .606 OPS | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 67 OPS+ | |
| Murphy | Bats LH | TEX | 467 PA | .291/.358/.449 | .806 OPS | 12 HR | 65 RBI | 115 OPS+ | 14 SB |
| Treanor | Bats RH | TEX | 272 PA | .211/.287/.308 | .595 OPS | 5 HR | 27 RBI | 60 OPS+ |
Tampa Bay Rays Bench Players
| Aybar | Bats Both | TB | 309 PA | .230/.309/.344 | .654 OPS | 6 HR | 43 RBI | 82 OPS+ | |
| Brignac | Bats LH | TB | 326 PA | .256/.307/.385 | .692 OPS | 8 HR | 45 RBI | 91 OPS+ | |
| Jennings | Bats RH | TB | 24 PA | .190/.292/.333 | .625 OPS | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 74 OPS+ | |
| Johnson | Bats LH | TB | 140 PA | .198/.343/.414 | .757 OPS | 7 HR | 23 RBI | 110 OPS+ | |
| Joyce | Bats LH | TB | 261 PA | .241/.360/.477 | .837 OPS | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 131 OPS+ | |
| Shoppach | Bats RH | TB | 187 PA | .196/.308/.342 | .650 OPS | 5 HR | 17 RBI | 81 OPS+ |
Final Analysis
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According to this examination of positional matchups, I have the Texas Rangers ahead 5-3-2. Several of the battles are extremely close, however, and dependent upon health and specific match-ups influencing lineups, the personnel could shift, altering each team's lineup considerably.
Offensively and defensively, both are dynamic teams, with loads of firepower, speed, and ability to flash the leather. In all likelihood, the team that pitches the best, suppressing the offense of the opposition, will find the most success in this first round ALDS clash.
The great thing about baseball is that despite all the analysis and evaluation, the games aren't played on paper, and in October, as we've seen numerous times, anything can happen. This truly is the greatest time of year. Play ball!
Please check out my other pieces covering the Texas Rangers as they enter the postseason for the first time since 1999. Thank you.
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