Forecasting The 2010 Philadelphia Eagles through the Sportsbooks

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Forecasting The 2010 Philadelphia Eagles through the Sportsbooks
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Sunday, September 12 can’t come soon enough.

I know the football season kicks off Thursday, September 9, but do I really care about the Minnesota Vikings playing the New Orleans Saints?

I won’t be able to stomach the Brett Favre coverage, the BP disaster, the Saints inspiring a city, and the footage of Drew Brees throwing out the first pitch in Yankee Stadium with his son.

As my impatience grows more and more by the days, hours, and seconds, I need to know how this season is going to shake out. Fast forward to the end of the movie and tell me how this thing is going to end. I am willing to take Madden simulations, stories about your dog picking winners, or anything else that may shed some light on the ultimate outcome of the 2010-11 campaign.

And I don’t want a wise response that says, “It will end the same way it has since 1960: Without a Championship.”

I want to know how many wins the Eagles will have, if they have a shot to win the division or even—no I won’t go there right now.

This is when I turn to the good ol’ Internet and the wild world of sports gambling.

We all know Las Vegas is the king of sports gambling, but when you’re about 2,500 miles from Sin City, you need to rely on those fraudulent offshore gambling sites.

Surprisingly, these thieves of the World Wide Web offer similar or the exact same odds found in Vegas, so let’s take a look at the numbers, find out what they mean, and see if there is a potential to make any money.

All of the information listed below is from sportsbook.com. The figures represent the amount won on a $100 bet. For example, if you see a price listed as plus-500, that means you win $500 on a $100 bet. If a price is negative, such as minus-150, that means you would have to bet $150 to win back $100.

Got it? Then away we go.

 

Regular Season Wins

Dallas Cowboys: Over 9.5 (minus-165) Under 9.5 (plus-145)

New York Giants: Over 8.5 (minus-135) Under 8.5 (plus-115)

Philadelphia Eagles: Over 8.5 (plus-110), Under 8.5 (minus-130)

Washington Redskins: Over 7.5 (plus-105) Under 7.5 (minus-125)

Look, the NFL pretty much stinks. It has turned into a league where it is difficult to win less than eight games in a season. I mean, you really need to try hard not to achieve an 8-8 season. Either that, or your entire team is decimated by injuries.

Even though I hold that opinion I thought the Eagles would be listed at over/under eight wins. Now before anyone gets fired up and says, “The books don’t want a push so they need to use halves when making this number,” you would be dead wrong. Teams such as the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans are installed at eight wins. In all there are 11 teams that are set up for the possibility of a push.

It is scary to see the Cowboys listed at 9.5 with a negative price next to it. This means one of two things.

One, the linemaker thinks the Cowboys are pretty much a lock to win 10 games, or two, they are anticipating the betting public hammering the over.

The 8.5 gives me a little hope. Since the books know much more about this stuff than anyone I know, I have to assume they are going to be fairly close with this number.

In the end I have to trust my gut, take the under and lay the $130.

This is a good sign Eagles fans, because I am Eddie Mush.

 

NFC East Division Winner

Dallas Cowboys: plus-120

New York Giants: plus-260

Philadelphia Eagles: plus-275

Washington Redskins:plus-550

Really?

The Cowboys are installed as the favorite here, but it’s not like they are an overwhelming favorite.

If the Cowboys were a lock, they would be priced between minus-150 and minus-250. The plus money on the Cowboys seems too easy. But whenever you have that mentality, you might as well burn your money on the spot.

The Eagles are not a long shot by any stretch of the imagination to win the division. The Redskins on the other hand are buried by the books in this spot.

A pass would be the best option, but since I need to pick a winner, I am going to go with value and take the Giants at plus-260.

I think the Cowboys win the division, but the positive money just sucks me right on in.

The 8.5 win total, coupled with a decent price to win the division, is starting to give me hope that the Birds can make the playoffs. But what kind of odds do they have if they make it that far?

 

NFC Champion

Dallas Cowboys:plus-350

New Orleans Saints:plus-450

Minnesota Vikings: plus-450

Green Bay Packers: plus-450

Philadelphia Eagles: plus-1000

San Francisco 49ers: plus-1000

New York Giants: plus-1000

Atlanta Falcons: plus-1000

Chicago Bears: plus-1500

Washington Redskins: plus-2000

Carolina Panthers: plus-3500

Seattle Seahawks: plus-3500

Arizona Cardinals: plus-3500

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: plus-5000

Detroit Lions: plus-5000

St Louis Rams: plus-5000

Okay, now I’m starting to believe in this team making the playoffs.

Can I please get my money back on that under 8.5 win total?

Actually, no. Let me mush us to a playoff berth.

To start things out, I see the Eagles are listed as the fifth favorite to win the conference. And since six teams qualify for the playoffs, I am led to believe the Eagles are going to be fighting for their playoff lives throughout the season.

I really hope this is the case, because meaningless football with three games to go is worse than carrying a conversation with a Cowboys fan who was born in the Philadelphia area.

The way I see it, the odds tell me the Cowboys, Saints, Vikings, and Packers are a lock to make the playoffs.

Arguments? Didn’t think so.

And since the NFC West is contractually obligated to send a representative to the playoffs this year, you can pencil in the 49ers or whatever team you want, but two teams are not coming out of the division.

That leaves the Eagles, Giants, Falcons, and maybe the Bears and ‘Skins battling it out for the last spot in the playoffs. If that’s our competition, I feel fairly confident.

Okay. So if the Birds have a shot to get into the playoffs, do they have a snowball’s chance in hell to win it all?

As for a wager, can I please have the Vikings?

 

Super Bowl Champion (I provided the subsections below)

 

The Favorite

Indianapolis Colts: plus-700

 

Contenders

Dallas Cowboys: plus-800

San Diego Chargers: plus-900

New Orleans Saints: plus-1000

Green Bay Packers: plus-1000

New York Jets: plus-1000

Baltimore Ravens: plus-1000

Minnesota Vikings: plus-1000

 

Here on Reputation Only

New England Patriots: plus-1300

Pittsburgh Steelers: plus-1500

 

Wannabes

New York Giants: plus-2000

Philadelphia Eagles: plus-2000

San Francisco 49ers: plus-2000

Atlanta Falcons: plus-2000

 

Frauds

Chicago Bears: plus-3000

Miami Dolphins: plus-3000

Houston Texans: plus-4000

Tennessee Titans: plus-4000

Washington Redskins: plus-4000

Cincinnati Bengals: plus-5000


Burn Your Money

Seattle Seahawks: plus-7500

Arizona Cardinals: plus-7500

Denver Broncos: plus-7500

 

 

Why bother showing up?

Kansas City Chiefs: plus -10000

Oakland Raiders: plus- 10000

Detroit Lions: plus -10000

St Louis Rams: plus -10000

Cleveland Browns:plus -10000

Carolina Panthers: plus-10000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: plus -10000

Jacksonville Jaguars: plus -10000

Buffalo Bills: plus-10000

Everyone in Philadelphia wants to see a Super Bowl, but we are smart enough to know this is not the year for it.

Since it isn't going to be the Birds, I will put my money on the Pakcers. I know I took the Vikings for the NFC Championship, but this kind of hedges my bet and I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket.

The Birds are stuck in the group that consists of the Wannabes, but luckily they are spared from the Fraud category, which is the ultimate kiss of death.

The numbers listed above should give Eagles fans some hope that this season is not going to be a complete waste and that they are moving in the right direction considering the circumstances.

With Kevin Kolb taking over the reins for the first time in his career, coupled with a young and unproven defense, I thought the Eagles could be facing a 6-10 season, and I know I’m not alone with that feeling.

The fact that the true experts gave us information like this makes really want September 12 to get here ever quicker.

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