In the crapshoot arena of mock drafting, columnist Rick Gosselin of The Dallas Morning News has consistently ranked among the nation's most accurate prognosticators.
From looking at the first 10 picks of his finished product for the 2010 NFL Draft, though, it's hard to see why.
1. St. Louis Rams — QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Fair enough. "St. Louis," Gosselin writes, "must stop ignoring the quarterback position." Barring a last-minute trade up by the Washington Redskins, this one's a gimme.
Jack Harver's Pick: QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
2. Detroit Lions — DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
"The Lions need defensive size...plus an inside pass rush," he says. Interestingly enough, Detroit hinted at an event with season ticket holders that the player they'll pick excels at "killing the other team's quarterback."
That's an area where Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy has a decisive edge over Suh.
Jack's Pick: DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
This pick has become a process of elimination in 99 percent of mock drafts: whichever defensive tackle the Lions don't take gets snapped up by Tampa Bay.
In a recent article , wide receiver Dez Bryant seemed like a potential curveball here, but either McCoy or Suh represents too great a marriage of need and value for Tampa.
Jack's Pick: DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
4. Washington Redskins — OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Sources close to Washington have intimated that the team will consider either Bradford or Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen with this pick.
As much as that might settle their situation at quarterback for years to come, the Redskins can't depend on penciled-in starting tackle Stephon Heyer to keep any passer upright.
Jack's Pick: OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
At this point, Gosselin's 2010 mock will begin to go horribly wrong. Only a trade up by the Philadelphia Eagles for Berry could save this prediction, but the Eagles could just as easily deal with the Cleveland Browns or Jacksonville Jaguars to get their guy.
There will likely be heavy interest in trading for this pick, but not from teams looking to move into the top five for a safety.
Jack's Pick: QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
6. Seattle Seahawks — OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
Picking sixth, the Seahawks are the real wild card in this year's top 10, with plenty of justification for taking Berry, Williams, or several other prospects.
With Williams, they'd fill their biggest need and new assistant head coach Alex Gibbs would land the raw athletic talent that fits the prototype for a tackle in his zone blocking scheme.
Jack's Pick: OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
7. Cleveland Browns — DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
The Miami Dolphins, who pick 12th, are also rumored to have interest in converting Morgan to an outside linebacker in a base 3-4 defense.
Between returning starter David Veikune and offseason acquisition Chris Gocong, though, the Browns have positioned themselves to draft Berry, by far the best player available here. They'll either take him or trade down with Philadelphia.
Jack's Pick: S Eric Berry, Tennessee
8. Oakland Raiders — OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
"Davis," Gosselin asserts, "is the best athlete of any left tackle on the board."
That's funny, because it wasn't too long ago that Maryland's Bruce Campbell made scouts' eyes pop out of their heads at the NFL Combine with his performance in drills.
The Raiders, though, are rumored to be smitten with Idaho lineman Mike Iupati—another offseason standout—and his versatility and high ceiling as a prospect.
Jack's Pick: OL Mike Iupati, Idaho
9. Buffalo Bills — DT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After a string of unlikely guesses, Gosselin will likely find a bone here.
In switching their defensive scheme, the Bills have thrown away the value of defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcus Stroud, both of whom were acquired with low-round picks.
New general manager Buddy Nix has remarked that Buffalo needs to get an instant starter with this pick.
Jack's Pick: DT Dan Williams, Tennessee
10. Jacksonville Jaguars — DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
Put simply, this pick will be wrong.
Many words could be used to describe Jacksonville's roster, not all of them kind. "Undersized," however, is not among them. The Jaguars' targets, especially in the draft's early rounds, always have prototypical size for their positions.
Coupled with Gosselin's logic that Jacksonville will pick Graham for "dire need"—a phrase foreign to general manager Gene Smith—he's way off the mark here.
Jack's Pick: LB Rolando McClain, Alabama
Past the top 10, questionable picks abound in Gosselin's mock:
Georgia Tech wide receiver Demaryius Thomas will be drafted 12th by Miami, he predicts—ahead of Dez Bryant and even considering the Dolphins' recent acquisition of Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall.
The Cincinnati Bengals, with one of the NFL's smallest scouting departments, are slated to draft Oklahoma tight end Jermaine Gresham despite never having visited with him this offseason.
Picking 20th, the Houston Texans are projected to luck into Clemson running back C.J. Spiller, this draft's biggest home-run threat and a prominent target for several teams picking in the top 15. Fresno State back Ryan Mathews, though, is long gone despite injury issues comparable to Chris "Beanie" Wells, last year's 31st overall pick.
With the 23rd pick, Gosselin mocks TCU defensive end Jerry Hughes as an outside linebacker project pick for the Green Bay Packers. Last year, the Packers only ignored their aversion to early 3-4 pass rusher prospects because USC's Clay Matthews had experience with the position that Hughes utterly lacks.
Clausen, Bryant, and Penn State defensive tackle Jared Odrick—highly sought-after prospects, all fall into Gosselin's last five picks of the first round. All three will likely be drafted in the top half of the first round, perhaps no later than Seattle at pick 14.
Crazier things have happened in past drafts, of course, but quite a few of Gosselin's projections for 2010 seem downright unlikely.