NFL Draft Trends and How to Use Them In Making a Mock Draft

As you sit down and look at the upcoming NFL draft you will notice how mock drafts differ from site to site. Sure, most people have essentially the same top 5 and for the most part the same top 10. Once you get into the later picks there is a lot of deviation and once it is all said and done most of these mock drafts will be more wrong than right. Even those who are paid by the big networks have trouble prognosticating the later picks. While I am no expert and my mock draft will extremely flawed, I see a few trends that might help us get a couple more correct.

Trend #1: Teams will reach for offensive linemen.

This last year there were six offensive linemen drafted in the first round and nine the year before that. In last years draft most people had Alex Mack being drafted in the end of the first round or top of the second, he went 21st, and I never saw Eric Wood projected in the first round at all and he went 28th. The NFL puts such a premium on protecting the QB that they are much more willing to take a chance on an offensive lineman than a skill position player.

Trend #2: Running backs will fall.

Even the best running backs will typically fall a few spots. When Reggie Bush was coming out of USC announcers and analysts were suggesting that teams were tanking to get the number one pick overall because they thought he was a sure thing. He only dropped one spot but other talented backs have dropped further. Adrian Peterson fell to 7 and Beanie Wells sank all the was to 31. Thanks to Mike Shannahan and the success of many two back systems the NFL has decided that running backs are easily replaceable. Sorry, CJ Spiller.

Trend #3: Someone will trade up in the first round to get a Quarterback.

Once the top one or two QBs are off of the board NFL GMs who need a QB start to get a little scared. In the last 4 drafts someone has traded up in the first round to get a QB (2006- Jay Cutler [Broncos], 2007 Brady Quinn [Browns], 2008 Joe Flacco [Ravens] and 2009 Mark Sanchez [Jets]) In 2004, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning and traded his rights for Phillip Rivers and some picks essentially accomplishing the same result.

Trend #4: One of the player invited to New York will slide.

Who doesn't have fond memories of watching Matt Leinhart or Brady Quinn sitting by themselves and watching money that they could have had the year before by coming out early slip away. After the list on invitees comes pick out your horse and enjoy!

Trend #5: The Raiders will draft someone too early or draft for speed instead of need.

I know it is a cheap shot but it is true and everyone knows it. How can you use it to your advantage in making your mock draft. Look for the guy will the best combine numbers and that is where Al Davis is going. This can be a great tool in predicting the draft. They drafted Jamarcus Russell because he had a big arm and Heyward-Bey for his speed. Even when they drafted Darren McFadden they already had two good running backs on the roster and could have filled a hole instead of adding to what was already a strength.

Trend #6: There will probably be one TE drafted and likely only one.

In the last ten years there has been at least one TE drafted in the first round and in only three of those have there been multiple tight ends drafted.

Trend #7: All the mock drafts will be wrong!

With all of the info we have and rumors coming out of NFL front offices all the mock drafts will be flawed. All it will take is one or two teams to make a strange choice and then everything is thrown out of whack. Oh well, it is fun and maybe by looking at the trends we can get closer.