It's Time For Change in Carolina

To those wanting John Fox to stay and screaming how big of a loss it would be for him to depart Carolina, please realize the answer upon his departure isn’t necessarily losing seasons.  Bill Cowher is the hot name for the Carolina job, especially after all signs pointed to him coaching in 2010, and then within days of Fox being announced to return for the 2010 season, it was announced Cowher wouldn’t coach in 2010. 

Bill Cowher is a great coach.  Maybe the high profile coach isn’t the way to go, but the hot hand at coordinator isn’t the only route to go either. 

The NFL has become the National Passing League.  The teams that run more than they pass, with the exception of the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens, are doing what the rest of us are doing in the months of January and February: watching the playoffs.  With the Cincinnati Bengals being another team who was eliminated on Wild-Card weekend. 

If you’re a running team, you have to be great at it, and great in other areas.  Fox has coached great running teams, and mediocre teams elsewhere on the field.  When Cowher got all the pieces he needed, he won a ring.

A quick look at the teams remaining in the playoffs is quite telling.  You have Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco taking snaps in the divisional round of the playoffs.  Six of those eight quarterbacks have lit up the stat sheets and scoreboards this season.  One was the NFL MVP, two more were in the running for that award.  The teams that can mix the run in with the pass have the best chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 7. 

The Carolina Panthers possess two of the better backs in the league, and arguably the top running back combinations in the league, with both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart rushing for 1,100 yards each. 

In the last month of the season, barring the 10-point setback to the New England Patriots, the Carolina Panthers looked utterly unstoppable.  Had they been able to avoid losses to the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and/or the heartbreaker against the Falcons in week two, the Panthers would have been in playoff contention and a team to look out for. 

That, however, wasn’t the case.  As it never has been in the season following a playoff run in the John Fox era.

During those final games, the Panthers were running the ball almost at will, but they were passing the ball better than they had all year, and arguably better than they did in their 12-4 campaign in 2008. 

The reason was pretty simple: un-drafted 3rd year player Matt Moore. 

During the Jake Delhomme controversy throughout the year, the players stood by Jake.  However, it became more and more evident as the year progressed that the man destined to lead Carolina beyond 2009 wasn’t wearing the number 17 on his jersey.  He wore something a lot more familiar to the Carolina and Charlotte area.  He wore the number three on his jersey—Matt Moore. 

The locker room at Bank of America stadium had a new life to it, as did the sidelines the Panthers stood on when No. 3 was taking snaps.  In Moore's first two starts of 2009, as has been habit in Carolina, he “managed the game.” 

From then on, he won games.  He dominated games, and took games into his hands.  He didn’t have gaudy stats, and doesn’t need gaudy stats going forward to improve his 6-2 mark as an NFL starting quarterback. 

He did, however, rank in the top five of NFL quarterbacks in statistics for the month of December.  He doesn’t need to be a game manager either.  He can manage the game by means of handing the ball to his two headed monster in the backfield, letting them rack up yards, but he can also take the 10 other men in that 11 man huddle, put them on his shoulders, and move the ball up and down the field.

Bill Cowher would come in with the same mentality Fox had, with little difference, but more upside. 

Cowher didn’t win a Superbowl until late in his tenure in Pittsburgh.  The main reason for that though is that in his time in Pittsburgh, Bill Cowher never had a game changer at quarterback. 

Neil O’Donnell, Mike Tomczak, Kordel Stewart, and Tommy Maddox, not to mention scattered backups that played along the way.  While some of those guys made Pro Bowls, I’d put Matt Moore up against them any day. 

If Cowher were to inherit this team as is, right now I think the sky would be the limit.  Get the Julius Peppers debacle handled, and do what little he can in the draft with the limited resources he’d be given from the current regime.  That, coupled with the 26th toughest schedule in the NFL, and he can easily go past the first round in the playoffs.

If Fox does stay for his “lame-duck” year, collect his $6 million, and chooses not to void the final year of his contract, I fully see another playoff run for the Panthers.  That is, if he doesn’t do the same things he’s done since 2002.  That’s asking an awful lot, but it’s possible. 

He needs to open the playbook and utilize the weapons he has been hiding.  Gary Barnidge, Dwayne Jarrett, and Matt Moore could, as a trio, equal three more wins than the 2009 season. 

Jarrett proved against the Saints he could get it done when given the opportunity, causing me personally to eat crow.  Utilize him for what he is, a big physical receiver who can cause separation and then go up and get it.  He may still be gone after this season, which proves the old saying correct.  You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.  If Jarrett goes, it won’t be like Keary Colbert and Drew Carter.  Jarrett will be a star somewhere.  Soon.

In a run happy offense, a tight end is a deadly weapon.  With Rosario, King, and Barnidge, the Panthers could use their tight ends better than any team in the league, and there are guys like Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Chris Cooley, Dallas Clark, Todd Heap, and Owen Daniels out there. 

That could alleviate the double teams Steve Smith is sure to get, open up routes for Muhammad, and Jarrett, should he return.  They won’t all be out there at the same time, but the more you use them, the more defenses know they are there and have to protect against them, no matter what combination you have on the field.

The problem with this, again, is that John Fox and Jeff Davidson have to use those resources.  I’m not saying Cowher would do that either, but I am saying that I have a feeling Cowher would let his players play and not stand steadfast on a game plan that has been derailed in the first 15 minutes of a game.

To those on the Fox bandwagon, prepare yourselves for more of Fox in 2010.  Don’t be surprised if, after a playoff run, the Panthers organization does offer him an extension. 

To those who are through with the Fox years, brace yourselves.  He has another playoff run in him, and he may have more years in blue and black ahead of him as well.