Ranking Every NFL Division Entering 2018 Minicamp

In a perfect world, the NFL's eight divisions would contain an equal amount of talent and competitiveness. But the real world is not perfect, and neither is the world of professional football.

Just as franchises ride through peaks and valleys, so do divisions. In many cases, several teams in one division peak at the same time (look at the NFC West in 2013 and sympathize with the St. Louis Rams). In other cases, several teams in one division find themselves rebuilding together (look at the modern-day AFC East and shake your head at the New England Patriots). 

With minicamps bringing an end to offseason programs, let's break down where all eight divisions look as though they'll stand when training camps get underway next month. 

Naturally, we'll start with how each division fared last year in terms of combined records, playoff representatives and combined Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) at Football Outsiders. But because so many teams fluctuate in the standings from year to year, we'll have to consider other factors such offseason momentum (free agency and the draft), health (then and now) and other roster changes.

One trend that likely isn't going away? The NFC should continue to crush its younger brother.  

8. AFC East

Steven Senne/Associated Press

2017 record: 33-31

2017 playoff teams: 2 (Patriots, Bills)

Division DVOA (ranking): -24.2% (7th)

Yeah, it's kind of weird that the league's most dominant team plays in its worst division, although that might not be a coincidence. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have spent so much time getting bullied by the mighty New England Patriots that all three are continually digging holes for themselves in desperate attempts to compete in the NFL's least competitive division. 

The Bills made the playoffs last season for the first time this century, but they were pretenders who actually should have only won six games based on the points-differential-oriented Pythagorean wins formula used by Football Outsiders. They've already dumped the veteran quarterback (Tyrod Taylor) who helped get them to that playoff game and are now waiting on No. 7 overall pick Josh Allen. They're tailor-made for 6-10. 

The Dolphins fared even worse in that category and were probably lucky to go 6-10. They might get a small boost from the return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but that won't fully compensate for the loss of their best offensive player (Jarvis Landry) and their best defensive player (Ndamukong Suh). 

On top of all that, Football Outsiders' adjusted-games-lost formula determined that Miami and Buffalo were actually two of the 10 healthiest teams in football last season. 

Same deal with the Jets, who actually exceeded expectations with a five-win 2017 season and didn't do much in the offseason to improve immediately. New supposed franchise quarterback of the future Sam Darnold will need time, as will that entire team. 

The Dolphins have lost eight of their last 10 games, while the Jets have lost nine of their last 11.

And even golden boys of the division have found trouble. An ugly Super Bowl loss has led to a tumultuous offseason for the Patriots, with key players Nate Solder, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler and Brandin Cooks exiting, and Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski still absent. 

The Bill Belichick/Brady-led Patriots are as fallible as ever, but their division is so weak that they should still cruise into the playoffs. 

7. AFC West

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

2017 record: 30-34 

2017 playoff teams: 1 (Chiefs) 

Division DVOA (ranking): -9.2% (6th)

Life comes at you fast in this league. Just a year ago, the AFC West had two 12-4 teams (the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders) and three teams with winning records (the Chiefs, Raiders and Denver Broncos). And although the Los Angeles Chargers won only five games in 2016, they were widely considered to be a lot better than that record. 

Now here we are a year later, and the Chargers might actually be the best team by default in a deeply flawed division. 

The Chiefs won the division again with another double-digit-victory campaign in 2017, but Kansas City went just 5-6 after a 5-0 start, choked per usual in the Wild Card playoffs and then traded away two key players in Alex Smith (the league's highest-rated passer last season) and Marcus Peters (the league's top interceptor since he came into it). The Smith trade made sense because they have Patrick Mahomes II waiting in the wings, but there could be growing pains there, and there's reason to believe they've become too shallow on defense. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders and Broncos both fell off cliffs last season. Oakland has room to bounce back if quarterback Derek Carr can remain healthy and get back on track, but replacing 2016 Coach of the Year candidate Jack Del Rio with dinosaur Jon Gruden felt like a panic move that is destined to backfire. And Denver certainly has the talent to get back into the playoff picture if new quarterback Case Keenum can come through, but Keenum has to prove he wasn't a one-hit wonder in Minnesota, and he doesn't have the support Peyton Manning enjoyed there just a couple years ago. 

Indeed, it's not a good sign that the Chargers might be the team to beat, because they haven't won more than nine games since 2009 and didn't do anything dramatic in the offseason. It just feels as though one of the league's most snake-bitten franchises might be due for a strong season, but they've fooled us on more than a few occasions. 

This division has a higher ceiling than the AFC East, but rock bottom is within sight for all four teams. It wouldn't be surprising if any of them ended up with a top-10 draft pick next spring. 

6. AFC North

Nick Wass/Associated Press

2017 record: 29-35

2017 playoff teams: 1 (Steelers) 

Division DVOA (ranking): 5.9% (4th)

The hierarchy in the AFC North became extremely clear in 2017, and little has changed with the lion's share of the 2018 offseason already over.

• The Pittsburgh Steelers are prime Super Bowl contenders so long as Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are rolling.
• The Baltimore Ravens are stellar defensively, but a lack of offensive bite and support for so-so quarterback Joe Flacco will continue to prevent them from winning more than eight or nine games.
• The Cincinnati Bengals are a shell of their former selves, seemingly satisfied with having enough talent to avoid reemerging as the turn-of-the-century Bungles without actually posing a threat to Pittsburgh or New England. 
• The Cleveland Browns, rebuilding since the early 1990s, are better than last year's 0-16 record but are good for no more than a handful of wins in the best-case 2018 scenario. 

Pittsburgh is a 12-win team, Baltimore is a nine-win team, Cincinnati is a six-win team, and Cleveland is a three-win team. The problem with this division is the Steelers rely so heavily on three players that a collapse is always possible, and if that happens, nobody will be in a position to take their place.

It's nice that the Ravens have a running game thanks to the emergence of Alex Collins, but zero-time Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Flacco has proven that 2012 was an anomaly. Cincinnati continues to sleep through free agency while good players leave for greener pastures, putting more pressure on mediocre quarterback Andy Dalton and their only elite offensive player, A.J. Green. The Browns exist only in a test tube. 

The AFC North was the only division in football with two teams that ranked in the top eight in terms of DVOA last season, but a lack of upside and an abundance of downside has caused it to lose ground to the emerging AFC South.

5. AFC South

Logan Bowles/Getty Images

2017 record: 27-37

2017 playoff teams: 2 (Jaguars, Titans) 

Division DVOA (ranking): -35.3% (8th)

On paper, the AFC South was the worst division in pro football last season. But consider what happened to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, and it's easy to see why that oft-maligned division is actually a lot better than the regular and advanced metrics suggest. 

The Colts spent the entire year without their franchise quarterback as Andrew Luck continued to recover from shoulder surgery, while the Texans spent the majority of the season without new franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson as well as three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. 

Luck, Watson and Watt were the most important players on those two teams, and they played just 12 total games between them. 

Unsurprisingly, it was the Colts and Texans—both of whom won just four games and graded out in the bottom-five in terms of DVOA—who sunk a division that actually sent two teams to the playoffs after long droughts. 

A scarily jacked defense carried the Jacksonville Jaguars to the AFC Championship Game, which had to be refreshing for a franchise that hadn't been to the playoffs since 2007. The division runner-up Tennessee Titans also got back to the postseason for the first time since 2008, and then they beat the Chiefs on the road in the Wild Card Round. 

There's little reason to believe those two maturing teams won't continue to improve after strong offseasons (hello, Andrew Norwell, Malcolm Butler, Dion Lewis, Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry), but also watch for either the Colts or Texans (or both) to be competitive.

After all, the Colts remain optimistic about Luck's shoulder, and that team has never had a losing season with the 2012 No. 1 overall pick under center. Reports have also been encouraging regarding Watson and Watt, and before the former suffered a torn ACL in early November, the Texans had scored at least 33 points in five consecutive games. 

If those guys can get and stay healthy this year, the AFC South could possess four Super Bowl contenders. But even if they don't, Jacksonville and Tennessee are good enough to keep things respectable. 

4. NFC East

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

2017 record: 32-32

2017 playoff teams: 1 (Eagles) 

Division DVOA (ranking): 5.8% (5th)

With a .500 record and a middle-of-the-pack DVOA, the NFC East was the NFL's most average division in 2017. But the division champion Philadelphia Eagles went on to win Super Bowl LII, the 9-7 Dallas Cowboys might have been a playoff team if not for Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension, and the injury-ravaged Washington Redskins (7-9) and New York Giants (3-13) are better than their 2017 records. 

Per Football Outsiders, no team suffered more adjusted games lost than the Redskins, making it rather amazing they managed to win seven games. They might miss departed cornerback Kendall Fuller, but going from Kirk Cousins to Alex Smith under center shouldn't have a significant negative impact, and they should benefit from better injury luck (especially along the offensive line). 

Per that same Football Outsiders scale, only the Redskins and two other NFC teams were hit harder by injuries than the Giants, who lost one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the game when Odell Beckham Jr. went down just a few weeks into the season. But OBJ should be 100 percent by training camp, and now he and quarterback Eli Manning will suddenly have some help via free agency and the draft. No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley is the leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, while veteran additions Nate Solder and Patrick Omameh should finally help shore up the offensive line. 

Expect this Giants team to be a lot more like the one that went 11-5 in 2016 than the one that went 3-13 in 2017. 

Meanwhile, the Elliott distraction is behind the Cowboys, who also have built up one of the deepest and most talented young defenses in the league. It's fair to be concerned about quarterback Dak Prescott following a sophomore slump—especially with top pass-catchers Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone—but Elliott's return should help, as should continued support from one of the best offensive lines in football. 

Dallas looks like it has 10 wins in it, the Redskins and Giants could easily bounce back with double-digit victories, and the Eagles expect to crush a potential Super Bowl hangover with franchise signal-caller Carson Wentz's return from a knee injury (they also went on that run without stalwart left tackle Jason Peters and key defender Jordan Hicks, both of whom should be back this year).  

If all goes right, the NFC East could experience a season that resembles its glory days. But at the very least, this is an above-average division. 

3. NFC North

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

2017 record: 34-30

2017 playoff teams: 1 (Vikings) 

Division DVOA (ranking): 11.2% (3rd)

No division was hit harder by injuries last year than the NFC North, which according to Football Outsiders suffered a league-high 323.3 adjusted games lost. The division champion Minnesota Vikings made the NFC title game with a quarterback who entered training camp as their third-stringer, the Green Bay Packers lost future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the majority of the season but still managed to win seven games, and just five members of the Chicago Bears started all 16 regular-season games. 

The Packers were 4-1 before losing Rodgers to a collarbone injury in October. When he's healthy—and it looks as though he is—they're Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, the Vikings might have actually improved after a 13-3 season by adding quarterback Kirk Cousins and defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, both of whom are Pro Bowl-caliber players. 

But don't forget about the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Matthew Stafford had the best season of his career in 2017, and they've got plenty of backs and offensive linemen fighting for the right to protect him. That defense remains a work in progress, but it might simply be a matter of time before Stafford has a rockstar season (a la Cam Newton in 2015, Matt Ryan in 2016 or Alex Smith in 2017). 

And don't forget about the Bears, either. The law of averages indicates they'll have better luck with injuries in 2018, and there's a good chance young quarterback Mitchell Trubisky experiences a Jared Goff-level sophomore explosion under the tutelage of Matt Nagy. He'll certainly have more support with new targets Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton on board. 

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Vikings, Packers and Bears, and the Lions have at the very least become consistent coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons.

No division we've looked at thus far has multiple teams with as much potential as the Vikings and Packers, while the Lions are at least average and the Bears have the look and feel of a potential sleeper. That's enough to give the North an edge over the East in the NFC, but the other two divisions in that conference are in a clear-cut battle for the No. 1 spot on this list. 

2. NFC West

Harry How/Getty Images

2017 record: 34-30

2017 playoff teams: 1 (Rams) 

Division DVOA (ranking): 12.3% (2nd)

The NFC West has the potential to be the best division in football in 2018, but that'll depend on how all four of the teams in that division deal with momentum.

The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are trying to maintain momentum.

Los Angeles exploded with an 11-win 2017 campaign and followed that up with a high-buzz offseason. It's not uncommon, however, for teams to break out one year and then regress closer to the mean the next year, and there are many cautionary tales associated with free-agent shopping sprees.

San Francisco won five straight games to finish the year with new franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center, and then they gave Garoppolo a trillion dollars early in the offseason. But that's a team that has still won just 13 games the last three years, and Jimmy G's sample is comically small. 

How will both teams react to the pressure? They both have a lot more to lose this time around, and each should be even better on paper. Rams fans will likely be disappointed if they don't make a deep playoff run, while 49ers fans probably expect at least a playoff appearance in Garoppolo's first full season. 

On the flip side, the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are trying to fight momentum. 

The Seahawks have officially come back to earth after making back-to-back Super Bowls earlier this decade. They're coming off their first non-playoff season of the Russell Wilson era and a gory offseason in which big names Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham walked the plank. The offensive line is still a huge liability, and the Legion of Boom is history.

The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back eight-loss seasons after making the NFC Championship Game in 2015, but quarterback Carson Palmer has retired, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald might eventually start losing his battle with Father Time, and the team has suffered a multitude of key losses the last two offseasons. It'll help if 2016 All-Pro running back David Johnson is able to bounce back from an injury-derailed 2017 campaign, or if rookie quarterback Josh Rosen can supplant highly paid bridge signal-caller Sam Bradford ASAP, but the Cardinals might be headed toward a short rebuild. 

For the Seahawks to change their current trajectory, Wilson might need a superman season. And for the Cardinals to do the same, Rosen might need to win the job and make a push for Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Thing is, Wilson definitely could make a run at MVP, and Rosen is polished enough to make a major impact right away, especially if Johnson returns from injury and performs at a 2016 level. 

If all that happens, the West will be wild. If none of it happens, this could easily be the worst division in the highly competitive NFC. But the Rams might be the most talented team in the NFL, it'd take effort for the 49ers to win fewer than eight games, and we've learned not to discount the Seahawks or Cards.

1. NFC South

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

2017 record: 37-27

2017 playoff teams: 3 (Saints, Panthers, Falcons) 

Division DVOA (ranking): 33.1% (1st)

Relative to the other seven divisions, the NFC South dominated the NFL in 2017. The only division to send three teams to the playoffs went 25-15 against the rest of the league while scoring a league-high (by a wide margin) 149 more points than it allowed. 

The division winner New Orleans Saints had the best DVOA in the league, the third-place Carolina Panthers had by far the best DVOA among third-place finishers, and only Arizona was a better last-place team than the 5-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

It helped that, according to Football Outsiders, the division collectively had better injury luck than every other division, but that alone doesn't explain why the Saints, Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Buccaneers made up the best quartet in the league. 

It starts under center. The quarterbacks in the AFC South and NFC North are all either well-established or have high potential, but no division has four starting quarterbacks on the level of the NFC South.

Carolina's Cam Newton was the 2015 MVP and is a potential Hall of Famer, Atlanta's Matt Ryan was the 2016 MVP and is a potential Hall of Famer, New Orleans' Drew Brees is coming off his 11th Pro Bowl season and is a Hall of Fame lock. All three have been to Super Bowls, and at least Newton and Ryan are still in their primes. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston isn't quite there as the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, but the 24-year-old is coming off the best statistical season of his career. 

We know for sure that the Panthers and Falcons have Super Bowl potential, and the Saints continue to look like a clear-cut Super Bowl contender. Their 2017 rookie class was historically good and should be even better with Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara, Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore and standout first-round offensive lineman Ryan Ramczyk all having a year under their belts in 2018. 

That makes three teams that wouldn't just be satisfied with a division title, which makes the NFC South the league's most competitive division even before taking the Bucs into account. The reality is Tampa is the odd team out, but if Winston can take the next step in his fourth season, the Bucs have playoff-level talent. They went 9-7 just a year ago, Winston's arsenal is now loaded, and they've built up the defensive front. 

It wouldn't be flabbergasting if any of these four teams wound up in the Super Bowl.