Fact or Fiction: Making Sense of Latest Buzz from the NFL Draft's Lying Season

A Rosetta stone is needed to decipher fact from fiction during the days leading up to the NFL draft. 

The last few weeks before the draft are better known as "lying season." In actuality, Senior Bowl week signals the point where any and all information coming from teams or other sources shouldn't be taken at face value. 

Too much is at stake. A franchise's future could be determined by controlling the narrative regarding a specific prospect. 

Even so, nuggets of knowledge still matriculate into the public sphere. 

Those are few and far between, though. Everyone has an angle, especially in regards to sought-after individuals with elite skill sets. 

The incoming draft class is ripe for misdirection as quarterback-desperate teams jockey to select one of six potential first-round signal-callers. Each prospect presents strengths and weakness that are often blown out of proportion. 

It falls on those who are outside of league circles to determine where reality falls. Trust no one, because they're all lying to protect their interests. 

2018 Class Lacks an Elite QB Prospect

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The NFL creates an impossible standard for incoming quarterback prospects. 

"I don't see [Andrew] Luck in this draft, and I don't see Carson Wentz, who I liked a lot coming into the draft," New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton said Sunday, per The MMQB's Peter King. "I'd feel a little bit uneasy if I were at the top of this draft and I decided I had to have a quarterback."

This incoming class features four top-10 overall talents in USC's Sam Darnold, UCLA's Josh Rosen, Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Wyoming's Josh Allen. Each of them has a chance to become a franchise quarterback.

History tells us some of these young men will fail. But one or two (if not more) should succeed. 

Payton also happens to coach a team in need of a future starting quarterback once Drew Brees retires, giving him an incentive to downplay the overall talent level in this year's draft class. 

Verdict: Fiction

Cleveland Browns Only Have Eyes for Wyoming QB Josh Allen

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In recent weeks, most mock drafts had Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen going to the Cleveland Browns at No. 1 overall even though the Browns had yet to finish their evaluations.  

How could a favorite have emerged before Cleveland had all of the top prospects in town?

The Browns hosted each of the top five quarterbacks over the past few weeks, including Louisville's Lamar Jackson, to be thorough in their assessment. General manager John Dorsey should just now be entering the last phase of the evaluation process to determine who will become the Browns' franchise quarterback. 

Allen is a strong possibility to go first overall due to his impressive skill set, but USC's Sam Darnold is firmly in the mix as well. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield shouldn't be discounted, either. 

Cleveland's final choice will be revealed soon enough. But Allen is hardly a slam dunk to be selected at No. 1.

Verdict: Fiction

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield Will Be a Top-5 Selection

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At 6'1", Mayfield's lack of ideal height for an NFL quarterback could ruin his chances of being selected first overall. He doesn't stack up physically compared to Allen (6'5") or Darnold (6'3"). 

Regardless, he shouldn't slide too far, as multiple teams appear to be interested in his services. 

"If the [Buffalo] Bills want him, they're going to have to come up to get him," an anonymous scout told NFL Draft Scout's Rob Rang. "I'll betcha he goes top five, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is before some of those other guys."

Mayfield is this year's most efficient quarterback due to his uncanny accuracy. 

The New York Giants, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots have all expressed interest in Mayfield. Since three of those teams pick in the top five overall, a bidding war for him could ensue.

Verdict: Fact

Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph Will Be Drafted Before Louisville's Lamar Jackson

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Despite the negative narratives that took root during the predraft process, Lamar Jackson is an elite talent. Some of the same tired rhetoric regarding dual-threat quarterbacks is being used. 

"Look, there is no getting around it, the question with [Jackson] is intelligence," a scout told NFL Draft Scout's Rob Rang.

Jackson's commitment to his mother is noble, but he could have used more experienced representation to prevent this scuttlebutt. 

"If he gets past Arizona, he could slide, perhaps even all of the way out [of the first round]," the scout added. "The Oklahoma State kid [Mason Rudolph] may jump him."

Jackson is a dynamic athlete and an improving passer, which makes him a threat to defenses at all times. While Rudolph is a talented pocket passer, teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Saints and Patriots should have the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner in their crosshairs. 

Verdict: Fiction

New York Giants' Moves Point to Saquon Barkley Selection

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Sometimes a smokescreen seems so obvious, some start to believe the lie. The New York Giants taking star Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 overall pick may be the best example of this heading into the draft. 

Yes, the Giants should have legitimate interest in Barkley, as he's arguably the No. 1 overall prospect in this year's draft class. However, New York has been laying it on a little thick as of late. 

According to the New York Post's Paul Schwartz, the Giants view Barkley as a "near-perfect prospect." The running back was also seen wearing Giants gear last week. 

"Just look at all their moves this offseason," a personnel evaluator told ESPN.com's Jordan Ranaan. "It leads to Saquon Barkley."

Taking a quarterback at No. 2 overall may not be the Giants' preferred choice, but a trade with a quarterback-needy franchise appears to be their most logical course of action.

Verdict: Fiction

San Diego State's Rashaad Penny Is 2018 Class' RB2

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Once Saquon Barkley comes off the board, the next-best running back isn't a foregone conclusion. 

LSU's Derrius Guice has been the second-rated running back prospect since May, per B/R's Matt Miller, but San Diego State's Rashaad Penny "seems to be the RB teams get most excited about," according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. 

It's a toss-up between the two depending on a team's preference. Georgia's Sony Michel could be in the mix, too, if an organization is looking for more of a home-run threat. 

Even so, a healthy Guice—which he wasn't last season—is a runaway freight train. The Patriots, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles are first-round possibilities, while Penny is expected to land with a team during the early portions of the second round. 

Verdict: Fiction

SMU's Courtland Sutton Is the Draft's Top-Rated WR

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The 2018 wide receiver class is underwhelming, and that's being kind. None of the top prospects are guaranteed first-round picks even though Alabama's Calvin Ridley has been considered the WR1 for months. 

Ridley falls short in two areas, though. At 6'0" and 189 pounds, his slight frame is a concern. The two-time national champion has never been considered a physical receiver, and he shouldn't be expected to win 50-50 balls on a regular basis. Second, Ridley will turn 24 years old during his rookie campaign. 

SMU's Courtland Sutton is now drawing interest from teams as the top wide receiver prospect, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. 

The 6'3", 218-pound Sutton fits the physical profile NFL teams prefer for a wide receiver. He touts outstanding athleticism—he played basketball for the Mustangs, too—and a wide catch radius. Plus, the Texas native is better creating after the catch than some smaller receivers. 

Verdict: Fact

Notre Dame's Mike McGlinchey Will Be the Only 1st-Round Offensive Tackle

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If the wide receiver class is underwhelming, the incoming offensive tackle crop may be even worse.

According to Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline, Notre Dame's Mike McGlinchey is the only tackle who NFL teams unanimously grade as a first-round talent. As a result, McGlinchey's value could escalate to a point where he's a top-15 selection. 

However, position value often plays a part in other prospects being driven up boards even if they don't carry high grades. 

UCLA's Kolton Miller, for example, is still a work in progress. However, teams may see his 6'9", 310-pound frame with outstanding athleticism and think, "We can mold him into a starting-caliber left tackle with those type of tools." 

Potential is the siren's call for scouts and coaches. Miller will almost certainly hear his name called sooner rather than later.  

Verdict: Fiction

Bradley Chubb Is a Better Prospect Than Myles Garrett

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Bradley Chubb is a top-five prospect and the 2018 class' highest-ranked defensive player. He could go as high as second overall to the Giants. 

However, he falls short of Myles Garrett, whom the Browns selected first overall a year ago. 

An edge-defender's value is built upon his ability to rush the passer. Chubb has been productive over the last two seasons with 20 sacks, but he's not nearly as explosive nor as flexible when bending the edge against offensive tackles. 

At 6'4" and 272 pounds, Garrett posted a 4.64-second 40-yard dash with a 1.57-second 10-yard split (pro day) and Gumby-like fluidity during position drills. Chubb, who weighed three fewer pounds, ran a 4.65-second 40-yard-dash with a 1.62-second 10-yard split.

Chubb is a more refined defender coming in the league, particularly against the run, but he also had an extra year on campus to develop. 

Verdict: Fiction

Georgia's Roquan Smith Stakes Claim as Top LB

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Every year, arguments emerge between top prospects over potential versus production. A high-profile case can be found among the top-rated linebackers. 

Georgia's Roquan Smith is the reigning Butkus Award winner as the nation's best linebacker and the 2017 SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Smith led the Bulldogs in nearly every major defensive statistic last season due to his instinctive play and impressive range. 

Tremaine Edmunds isn't as advanced as a middle linebacker, but he is just scratching the surface of his potential. The 19-year-old did post two-straight 100-plus-tackle seasons, but franchises are looking at his 6'5", 253-pound frame imagining what he could eventually become. 

According to Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline, several teams prefer Smith even though he doesn't have the same room for growth. 

While both should be top-12 selections, Edmunds' upside is far more alluring. 

Verdict: Fiction