2018 MLB Free Agents: Breaking Down Early Offseason Rumors and Predictions
As most households fire up their ovens for Thanksgiving, MLB's hot stove gradually simmers with free agency beckoning.
The full frenzy won't commence until December's winter meetings, but the trade and free-agent windows are nevertheless open for business. While Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto sprinted out of the offseason gate, most other teams are still in the preparation stage.
The rumor mill will heat up as fall progresses. Although not in overdrive just yet, let's examine some early free-agent gossip making the rounds.
Mike Moustakas Interested in Angels
After recording an American League-worst .397 team slugging percentage in 2017, the Los Angeles Angels need another potent power bat alongside Mike Trout and Justin Upton, a late-season acquisition who signed a five-year extension.
With Brandon Phillips and Yunel Escobar both free agents, they also must revamp their entire infield around shortstop Andrelton Simmons. That makes Mike Moustakas, a third baseman who belted 38 home runs in 2017, a sensible target.
According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the 29-year-old has interest in leaving the Kansas City Royals for California:
His departure is not a formality. People with the Royals told FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman "they may wind up keeping" the third baseman if the market drives them out of the Eric Hosmer sweepstakes. Losing both corner infielders and center fielder Lorenzo Cain is the doomsday scenario they must fight to avoid.
Yet if the Angels represent his first choice, Moustakas should be welcomed with open arms. Their left-handed batters—most notably Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena—recorded an MLB-worst .710 OPS against righties. A left-handed infielder with pop satisfies every need, and the franchise has traditionally spent aggressively on the open market.
They can't waste Trout's prime, and Moustakas could power them into the wild-card picture with better health from a young pitching staff. It's a perfect match.
Prediction: Moustakas signs four-year deal with Angels.
Orioles Eyeing Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn
After Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish and potentially Japanese star Shohei Ohtani, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn headline the crop of mid-tier starting pitchers. As a result, they will be in high demand despite both recently returning from Tommy John surgery.
Cobb rebounded to record a 3.66 ERA over a career-high 179.1 innings for the Tampa Bay Rays, who are unlikely to retain the 30-year-old due to their small budget. While Lynn's 4.82 fielding independent pitching (FIP) presents a major caution flag, his 3.43 ERA will likely still draw interest in a market light on high-end arms.
After posting the worst ERA (5.70) of any starting rotation, expect the Baltimore Orioles to surface as suitors for any competent pitcher. According to MLB Network's Jon Morosi, they're naturally interested in Cobb and Lynn:
In Cobb's case, they will face high-profile competition. Per ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers, the Chicago Cubs "reached out to Cobb early in the free-agent process, as he checks a lot of boxes."
"He’s a couple of years removed from an arm injury, has good stuff, would be making the move from the American League to the pitcher-hitting National League and gets an A+ in terms of fitting into the Cubs' clubhouse," Rogers wrote.
Cobb in turn would reunite with former Rays manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, whom Maddon and the Cubs poached from Tampa Bay last month. The 30-year-old righty spoke fondly of both in an MLB Network Radio interview:
According to Peter Gammons, the New York Yankees are Chicago's primary competition for Cobb.
Baltimore has a better chance of signing Lynn, but it's not the only squad in dire need of starting pitching. The Philadelphia Phillies have a clear payroll and severely limited rotation, so the 6'5" hurler represents the perfect mid-tier signing for them to gradually turn around years of rebuilding.
As for the Orioles, they will strike elsewhere.
Prediction: Cobb signs with Cubs; Lynn goes to Phillies
Tyler Chatwood "Drawing Huge Interest"
Tyler Chatwood would represent free agency's biggest sleeper if teams were actually sleeping on him.
According to Heyman, the right-handed starter is "drawing huge interest" around MLB. The Orioles and Texas Rangers are among "many teams" eyeing his services.
Age and a career 3.31 ERA away from Coors Field make Chatwood—who turns 28 in December—a highly desirable option despite last season's 4.69 ERA and 77 walks in 147.2 innings for the Colorado Rockies.
Although commonly branded as this winter's Charlie Morton because of his high spin rate, Heyman predicted Chatwood will "decimate" the $14 million, two-year deal his peer received from the Houston Astros last offseason.
MLB.com's Mike Petriello expanded the comparison, noting the free agent's velocity uptick and high ground-ball rate (58.1 percent in 2017). He also examined the spin rate from a curveball Chatwood should use more often next season.
"Chatwood has elite curve spin, too," Petriello wrote. "In 2017, there were 229 pitchers who threw 100 curves, and his spin rate of 2980 RPM was the fifth-highest, well above the Major League average of 2489 RPM, and just ahead of Morton himself (2874 RPM)."
Camden Yards is hardly a pitcher's haven and moving to the AL East would also suppress a full-fledged breakout away from Colorado. Yet Chatwood still represents an affordable upgrade to an abysmal rotation, so Baltimore locks him down to a multi-year deal.
Prediction: Chatwood signs three-year deal with Orioles.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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