Fantasy Football Week 10: Matt Camp's Weekly BS Meter
Even if teams won't publicly acknowledge they're throwing in the towel on the season, the signs are there if you look for them. Figuring out the difference between contenders and pretenders will help you determine whom you can trust as we come down the stretch of the 2017 fantasy regular season.
The Kansas City Chiefs cooled off after a hot start to the campaign, and Kareem Hunt hasn't been exempt from that dip in play. Of course, it's hard to blame him for what happened in Week 9 when he wasn't on the field for his typical number of snaps in a favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. That's a correctable mistake.
It will be much tougher to correct the issues in Houston, Denver and Tampa Bay. Quarterback problems have and could continue to plague those teams for the rest of the season. The issues are bad enough to consider getting away from those teams if you have any of their key players on your fantasy roster.
The B.S. Meter breaks down 10 situations to cover the most pressing issues in fantasy football. The statements will be rated from 1 to 10, with 1 being completely true and 10 being total B.S.
Note: All fantasy stats used to calculate finishes are from FantasyPros. All advanced stats are calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. Snap counts are also from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on a points-per-reception (PPR) format.
Now Is the Time to Sell High on Demaryius Thomas
1 of 10
Coming into Week 9, Demaryius Thomas hadn't scored a touchdown in his first seven games and was the No. 36 wide receiver in PPR formats for the season, so expectations should not have been high for his game against the Philadelphia Eagles, especially with Emmanuel Sanders returning from an ankle injury after a two-game absence.
Thomas ended up catching eight of his 12 targets for 70 yards, including a one-yard touchdown. The score came with 9:45 left in the fourth quarter, so it was nothing more than garbage-time production, as his six points made the score 44-15 in favor of the Philadelphia Eagles. While it counts all the same for fantasy, his production shouldn't be taken as a sign he's turning things around, especially with such a mess at quarterback.
In Brock Osweiler's first start of the season, he completed 19 of 38 passes for 208 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The touchdown to Thomas was the only non-field goal the offense generated, and considering when it came, it had no effect on the outcome.
Thomas' name value still carries weight, so selling him high after he scored 21 fantasy points would be wise. The Broncos have no choice but to stick with Osweiler for at least another week because Paxton Lynch still isn't ready to come back from the shoulder injury he suffered in the preseason. Even when Lynch is available, he shouldn't be considered a savior since he couldn't even beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting job to open the season.
Unless you believe Thomas can be a reliable fantasy asset with poor QB play and garbage-time production, take advantage of what he did in Week 9 to turn him into something more reliable.
B.S. Meter on selling high on Thomas: 1/10
Kareem Hunt's Dip in Production Is Not a Cause for Concern
2 of 10
In each of the first seven games of his career, Kareem Hunt posted at least 100 total yards, which is a good benchmark for players in the RB1 category. Touchdowns can be tough to predict, so even though Hunt hadn't scored since Week 3, hitting that century mark was more than enough reason to remain confident in Hunt as an RB1.
His streak of 100-yard efforts ended in Week 8 against the Denver Broncos, as he totaled just 68 yards despite 22 carries (46 rushing yards) and three receptions on five targets (22 receiving yards) while playing 74.2 percent of the snaps.
He failed to start a new streak in Week 9 in a 28-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. While the matchup looked like a good one for Hunt, he had a season-low nine carries for 37 yards and caught four of five targets for 24 yards on just 54.4 percent of the snaps, his lowest total since playing 57.4 percent in Week 1.
Amazingly, my Twitter has lit up with questions about trading away Hunt after two bad games. Do you really want to bail on the No. 2 fantasy RB in PPR formats because he cooled off after an amazing start to his career? He still plays for one of the better teams in football with a favorable schedule down the stretch, including games against the Oakland Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins in Weeks 14-16.
Unless you're trading Hunt straight up for Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell, back off these snap-judgment proposals. Even the best players have some bad games.
B.S. Meter on Hunt's dip in production being cause for concern: 2/10
The Quality of Jay Ajayi's Touches Will Improve in Philadelphia
3 of 10
When the Philadelphia Eagles acquired Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins just five days before their matchup with the Denver Broncos, his value appeared to be on the rise for the rest of the season but not for Week 9.
The Eagles acquired Ajayi to be an upgrade over what they had in the backfield, which hasn't been bad, so they didn't have a need to feature him in his first game, especially with a bye coming in Week 10.
Even in a tough matchup, Ajayi turned eight carries into 77 yards, including a 46-yard touchdown while playing just 24.6 percent of the snaps. He did not record a target, but not much should be taken from that since the Eagles didn't need him for a big role, as they controlled this game throughout an eventual 51-23 victory.
It was a surprisingly positive start for Ajayi on his new team considering how little time he had to spend with his teammates, the coaching staff and the playbook.
The team's Week 9 performance was arguably its best of the season when you factor in a Denver defense that's been one of the better units over the first half of the year. In addition to Ajayi's coming through, Corey Clement played 40.6 percent of the snaps and had 51 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries while adding another score on a 15-yard reception, his only target of the day.
LeGarrette Blount played 23.2 percent of the snaps and had nine carries for 37 yards. Wendell Smallwood didn't see the field until the game was well in hand in the second half. He carried five times for 25 yards on 8.7 percent of the snaps.
With an 8-1 record heading into their bye, the Eagles look like the best team in football, so adding Ajayi to this backfield was a clear sign they believe he can help them win the Super Bowl.
In Miami, he averaged nearly 20 carries per game but just 3.4 yards per carry. He also had 14 receptions for 67 yards on 20 targets but didn't always play an active role in the passing game.
Obviously, the Eagles are a far better team than the Dolphins, especially on offense, which means Ajayi could have a chance to get more looks in the red zone. In seven games with the Dolphins, he had 11 red-zone carries, four of which came inside the 10. In one game with the Eagles, he had two red-zone carries, one of which came inside the 10.
Through seven games with the Dolphins, Ajayi was tied for the No. 29 fantasy RB spot in PPR formats. The Eagles should continue to keep multiple backs involved, so you shouldn't expect the same quantity for Ajayi but the quality of those touches should rise, and that will make him a stable RB2 in Philadelphia.
B.S. Meter on the quality of Ajayi's touches improving in Philadelphia: 3/10
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Kelvin Benjamin Will Be Better a Better Fantasy Option in Buffalo
4 of 10
The Buffalo Bills decided to hold Kelvin Benjamin out of their Week 9 matchup with the New York Jets after acquiring him two days earlier in a trade with the Carolina Panthers. While it was disappointing to not see Benjamin out there with his new team, it was understandable for Buffalo to hold off his debut on a short week.
Even though he'll make his Bills debut in a tough matchup with the New Orleans Saints in Week 10, the schedule does improve for Benjamin after that, including games with the Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts and two games with the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins in December.
Through eight weeks with the Panthers, Benjamin was the No. 24 fantasy WR in PPR formats with 91.5 fantasy points (11.4 per game). He's been a decent WR2 despite the struggles of Cam Newton, who's been more bad than good with 10 touchdowns to 11 interceptions on the season.
Now, Benjamin gets to play with Tyrod Taylor, who has done a great job protecting the football with 10 touchdowns to two interceptions. Taylor has completed 65.3 percent of his passes even though he's worked with a receiving corps that wasn't good to begin with before losing tight end Charles Clay to a knee injury for the last three weeks.
Taylor won't get a lot of attention in the MVP race, but what he's been able to do is very impressive, especially since it looked like the Bills were on their way to a rough season following the trade of Sammy Watkins.
Instead, Taylor has risen to the challenge and now gets a legit No. 1 WR in Benjamin to provide some relief down the stretch as Buffalo tries to continue an improbable run to the playoffs. Benjamin gets to play with a more consistent QB in a better offense on a contending team. He can be better than the No. 24 fantasy WR now that he's in Buffalo.
B.S. Meter on Benjamin being a better fantasy option in Buffalo: 4/10
Josh Gordon Is a Must-Add Off the Waiver Wire
5 of 10
Josh Gordon hasn't played in an NFL regular-season game since 2014. In 2016, he played two games in the preseason for the Cleveland Browns and had five receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown before what was supposed to be a four-game suspension to start the season. But that turned into an indefinite suspension. It ended when the NFL reinstated him last week.
Per the conditions of his reinstatement, Gordon can practice with the Browns starting Nov. 20 and is eligible to play starting in Week 13, which means he'd have four weeks to contribute to fantasy teams (unless you are still playing for something in Week 17).
The Browns face the Chargers on the road, then have home games with the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens before taking on the Bears in Chicago in Week 16. They go on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.
The schedule is a mixed bag in terms of difficultly, as if the learning curve isn't tough enough for Gordon. Not only does he have to work his way back from a tumultuous personal journey, but he has to get back into game shape and do so for arguably the worst team in football.
Cleveland is averaging just 206.1 passing yards per game and a league-worst 54.4 completion percentage. The Browns have already played three QBs this season between DeShone Kizer, Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler and with little success. They failed to acquire AJ McCarron from the Cincinnati Bengals at the trade deadline, so the team's QB position is far from stable.
Unless you are a near-lock to make the fantasy playoffs, Gordon isn't a necessity to grab off the waiver wire. Even though he's been a WR1 in the past, expectations can't be that high with such a steep uphill battle ahead of him to return to relevancy.
B.S. Meter on Gordon being a must-add off the waiver wire: 5/10
Clarity Is Coming to the Titans Backfield
6 of 10
It feels like we have to reassess the Tennessee Titans backfield every few weeks, hoping for some clarity, yet it never comes. Trying to figure out who will play when and how much production you can expect have been maddening with no end in sight.
This past weekend, it was Derrick Henry who wound up as the top fantasy option, mostly due to the 1-yard touchdowns he scored en route to a 23-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Henry finished with 26 yards and the touchdown on eight carries while playing 36.5 percent of the snaps and added two receptions for 10 yards on two targets. Murray wasn't any better with nine carries for 19 yards in addition to catching both of his targets for 22 yards on 71.2 percent of the snaps.
If you were banking on Murray to get healthier following the team's Week 8 bye, head coach Mike Mularkey said he is dealing with a knee injury. Of course, he's dealt with injuries on multiple occasions this season, yet he always seems to get in at least some practice in late in the week and lead the team in touches once he gets in the game.
Not every injury situation is the same, but it's been tough to use Henry with any kind of confidence as long as Murray is active.
The frustration with this backfield can be summed up by Mularkey's comments about Murray. According to Paul Kuharsky of Midday 180, after confirming the knee injury, Mularkey said, "Murray gets right back in, doesn't let anything hold him back. If he's effective, we'll allow him to continue to play."
Even though both running backs have had their moments, the overall performance from Tennessee's backfield has been a disappointment compared to last year. So while it's already hard enough to figure out who to play when, it's not like they've provided strong fantasy production.
Once again, Henry should be a good play if Murray actually sits out, but that's yet to happen this season. Monitor Murray's status throughout the week and into the weekend before making a decision on these two.
B.S. Meter on clarity coming to the Titans backfield: 6/10
Dede Westbrook Will Be a Fantasy Superstar
7 of 10
After plenty of hype, the Jacksonville Jaguars decided to not activate Dede Westbrook for their Week 9 game against the Cincinnati Bengals at EverBank Field. Instead, they put off Westbrook's debut another week, and Marqise Lee fought through a nagging knee injury to have yet another productive game with eight receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown in another victory.
Westbrook has been working his way back from a core muscle injury he suffered in the preseason, so the hope is he could bring a lift to the Jacksonville offense and, as a result, to the fantasy roster that has him stashed on the bench. The problem with this idea is the identity of the Jaguars offense.
For the most part, Jacksonville has stuck to a pretty simple game plan of limiting Blake Bortles while Leonard Fournette is the focal point of the offense, which is possible because the team has such a strong defense. With such a solid rushing attack and a great defense, the Jaguars have no reason to put too much pressure on Bortles, as that has been a recipe for disaster in the past. He's averaging just 29.25 passing attempts per game.
If you want to stash Westbrook because he's a talented player on a contending team, that's fine, but understand that with the way the Jaguars are structured, the chances he'll become a breakout fantasy superstar in the second half of the season aren't very high. You should be happy if he becomes a decent WR3/flex at some point over the final two months of the year.
B.S. Meter on Westbrook being a fantasy superstar: 7/10
C.J. Prosise Can Fix the Seahawks' Backfield Woes
8 of 10
Time isn't running out just yet, but waiting for C.J. Prosise's return to action has been frustrating. The only positive, at least for fantasy owners, is that the Seattle Seahawks still haven't figured out how to establish any kind of rushing attack. That means when Prosise is ready to return, the door should be open for as big of a role as he can handle.
Thing were so bad for the Seahawks, they actually planned to feature Eddie Lacy in their Week 9 matchup with the visiting Washington Redskins. After six carries for 20 yards and a reception for 14 yards, Lacy left the game in the second quarter with a groin injury and didn't return.
The Seahawks turned to Thomas Rawls, who had his best performance of the season with 39 yards on just nine carries and two receptions for 31 yards on two targets. Even though Rawls was productive when he got the ball, Seattle didn't seem interested in sticking with him.
We've seen little of Prosise in the last two seasons, but what we have seen has been promising. That is why many have him stashed on the bench in hopes he'll come back to bring a boost to the Seahawks and fantasy lineups down the stretch. The hope should be that he gets 12-15 touches as a runner and a receiver and that's enough to give the Seahawks someone they can rely on in their backfield. At this point, even that is asking a lot.
B.S. Meter on Prosise's fixing the Seahawks backfield: 8/10
The Buccaneers Will Salvage Their Season
9 of 10
In a move that came at least a week too late, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided to sit Jameis Winston down for at least the next two weeks after an MRI revealed more damage on the shoulder that's bothered him since Week 6, according to Jenna Laine of ESPN.com. That means veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will get his first start of the season against the New York Jets in Week 10.
Fitzpatrick will go into that game without Mike Evans, who was suspended for one-game for unsportsmanlike conduct in Week 9. Evans appealed the suspension, but it was upheld Tuesday, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Without Evans, it won't be easy for the Buccaneers to snap their-five game losing streak. They've scored just 13 total points over the last two weeks in losses to the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers.
Through nine weeks, Evans is the No. 10 fantasy WR in PPR with 117.2 fantasy points and 14.7 fantasy points per game, so he's been solid despite Winston's struggles. DeSean Jackson has been a disappointment in reality and fantasy as the No. 38 WR in PPR formats. Since coming back from his three-game suspension to start the season, Doug Martin is averaging just 10 fantasy points per game and is coming off an eight-carry, seven-yard performance against the Saints.
Tampa Bay has fallen well short of high expectations with a 2-6 record after nine weeks. Only the New York Giants (1-7) and San Francisco 49ers (0-9) have worse records in the conference. The Buccaneers trail the Carolina Panthers by four games in the division and are three games out of the final playoff spot in the NFC. Other than the Jets and Miami Dolphins in the next two weeks, they will face NFC teams they're looking up at over the rest of the season including the Atlanta Falcons twice, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Panthers and Saints in the season finale.
This team is heading in the wrong direction with no signs of turning it around, so you'd be justified in getting out of this situation. That includes selling Evans if you can get a proper return on a player who has battled through QB issues to stay in the top 10 of fantasy WRs.
B.S. Meter on the Buccaneers salvaging their season: 9/10
Both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller Can Be Productive Without Deshaun Watson
10 of 10
The Houston Texans suffered a devastating blow when Deshaun Watson tore his ACL during practice Thursday ahead of the team's Week 9 game against the Indianapolis Colts. That put the Week 1 starter, Tom Savage, back atop the depth chart.
Not surprisingly, the Texans struggled on offense and wound up losing 20-14 to the Colts on a day when both the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars won to put more distance between them and the Texans. Under Savage, the Texans managed just one offensive TD, a 34-yard completion to DeAndre Hopkins with 6:11 remaining in the fourth quarter. Savage finished just 19-of-44 for 219 yards with a TD and lost one of his two fumbles.
Luckily, Hopkins saw enough targets to produce another strong fantasy outing. He caught six of 16 targets for 86 yards and the aforementioned TD. The 16 targets tied the season-high he initially set in Week 1, which was the last and only other time Savage started a game. Hopefully, Savage keeps forcing the ball to Hopkins since the quantity will be needed to make up for the lack of quality.
Meanwhile, Will Fuller's white-hot streak ended at the hands of Savage. Fuller caught just two of eight targets for 32 yards and didn't score for the first time in five games. Even though Fuller's unbelievable efficiency was going to end at some point, he still had a chance to be a reliable fantasy WR even without the TDs because Watson was playing so well. However, Savage is a massive downgrade from Watson, which crushes the fantasy value of Fuller.
The Texans are going in the wrong direction, which means you should only be focusing on their best players. Other than Hopkins, no Texan should be considered a locked-in fantasy starter. Fuller is a depth option. You might be able to sell him based on the production he had with Watson, but his trade value took a major hit when Savage took over for Watson.
B.S. Meter on both Hopkins and Fuller being productive without Watson: 10/10
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