Week 5 NFL Picks: Full Lines, Best Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Chris RolingFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2017

GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 28:  Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers drops back to pass in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on September 28, 2017 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

It's feast-or-famine season for would-be NFL bettors.  

NFL picks on the latest lines out of Las Vegas haven't been an easy task this season so far, meaning bettors have won big or lost droves of valuable bankroll to odd developments.  

Look no further than the New York Jets and New England Patriots sitting around with the same record for proof.  

Week 4 provided plenty in the way of oddities with Atlanta, Dallas, New England, Tennessee and Oakland all losing. Viewed through another lens, it provided plenty of ways to pick upsets. This week doesn't seem any different, so let's pick out a few must-bet lines for bettors to consider after looking at the whole schedule.  

        

NFL Week 5 Schedule, Odds

New England (-6) at Tampa Bay  | O/U 56

Arizona at Philadelphia (-6.5)  | O/U 45

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)  | O/U 39

Carolina at Detroit (-3)  | O/U 43.5

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-8.5)  | O/U 44

L.A. Chargers at N.Y. Giants (-3.5)  | O/U 44.5

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland (-1)  | O/U 39

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-1.5)  | O/U 44

Tennessee (-3) at Miami  | O/U n/a

Baltimore at Oakland (-4)  | O/U n/a

Seattle at L.A. Rams (-2.5)  | O/U 47

Green Bay at Dallas (-2)  | O/U 52

Kansas City (-3.5) at Houston  | O/U n/a

Minnesota (-3.5) at Chicago  | O/U n/a

Bold denotes predicted winner against the spread and over/under projection. 

          

New England (-6) at Tampa Bay

Bettors have already been burnt once by the Patriots on a Thursday.  

It's time to try again.  

Week 1 saw Tom Brady and the Patriots welcoming the Kansas City Chiefs to town and taking a 42-27 whipping before evening out to 2-2. Now the Patriots hit the road on a short week and take on a 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. 

Records can be deceiving, though. The Buccaneers have struggled all year after outright having a bye in Week 1, with their only wins coming against the hapless Chicago Bears and arguably league-worst New York Giants. 

It doesn't seem like Jameis Winston and his new-look offense with weapons like DeSean Jackson are on the same page yet, with Winston sitting on six touchdowns against three interceptions and the running game averaging 3.8 yards per carry. 

A team like the Buccaneers is an unknown after a slow start. New England...not so much, as Paul Pabst of NBC Sports Radio pointed out.

New England's defense is one of the worst in the league. But Brady has 10 touchdowns with no interceptions, and this looks like one of those matchups where he can win a shootout regardless of how miserable his defense performs. 

Tampa Bay, after all, fields the defense that coughed up 369 passing yards and three touchdowns to Case Keenum in a 34-17 loss against the Minnesota Vikings. 

Prediction: Patriots 35, Buccaneers 28

                    

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)

ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 01: Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Buffalo Bills slips away from Grady Jarrett #97 of the Atlanta Falcons and Takkarist McKinley #98 during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 1, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Sometimes the odds don't have to make sense—just take the easy one and enjoy the bankroll boost. 

Such is the case here with the 3-1 Buffalo Bills somehow underdogs against the 1-3 Cincinnati Bengals, a team that has already fired an offensive coordinator and needed a game against the Cleveland Browns just to pick up its first win of the season. 

The Bills look like one of the best teams in football, and it's approaching this-doesn't-look-like-a-fluke territory. We're talking about a team with a road loss against a Carolina Panthers team that just took down the Patriots and wins against both the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons.  

In Week 4, the Bills hit the road and stole a 23-17 win from those Falcons, with an upstart defense holding Matt Ryan to a 24-of-42 line for 242 yards with one touchdown against two interceptions. On the season, Tyrod Taylor has been an efficient player despite injuries to his wideouts, completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 744 yards with a 5-1 touchdowns-interceptions ratio.

Taylor's play has many bringing up the right questions: 

The outlook isn't as kind for the Bengals. Andy Dalton throwing four touchdowns against the Browns is nice. But it's hard to forget he's only thrown six overall behind one of the league's worst offensive lines that has produced a running game averaging 3.3 yards per carry with no rushing scores despite names like Joe Mixon. 

Cincinnati's defense might be an equalizer of sorts here, but the offense caught a break and inflated numbers against the Browns. Buffalo perhaps won't have to deal with Tyler Eifert or John Ross, who both missed last week, meaning the defense can force Dalton into mistakes and ride this one out. 

Prediction: Bills 24, Bengals 17

               

Green Bay at Dallas (-2)

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 01:  Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts after a play against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at AT&T Stadium on October 1, 2017 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Here's another line that might not stay this way for long. 

The 3-1 Green Bay Packers don't look like a team that will go on the road and lose to a 2-2 team, even if it is the Dallas Cowboys, an on-paper talented team. 

Those Cowboys just haven't shown up when it matters. Wins against the miserable Giants and .500 Arizona Cardinals aren't talking points when the team drops a 42-17 contest against the Broncos and lets the Los Angeles Rams come to town and escape with a 35-30 win. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been a business-as-usual squad on the way to Week 5, too, the only loss on the road against the Falcons while down two offensive tackles. It doesn't seem to matter much—Rodgers has 10 touchdowns and all of three interceptions while completing 66.9 percent of his passes. 

The Packers don't feel like they've hit full strength, either, even with five different players boasting a touchdown catch. One without? Tight end Martellus Bennett.

“He’s a talented player for us, and we’ve got to continue to find ways to get him going,” Rodgers said, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com. “He felt great after he caught the over route for a big gainer. We just have to keep finding ways to get him involved early in the game.”

Granted, the Cowboys are still rounding into form as well. Unlike the Packers, though, something feels off. Rodgers against a defense that sits tied for 28th with eight passing scores allowed isn't a good idea for bettors trying to recoup potential losses from the prior weeks. 

Prediction: Packers 28, Cowboys 20

       

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.