NFL Predictions Week 1: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

Few weeks present upset opportunities for NFL bettors to capitalize on in the odds department than the opening week.

Openers across the league throw players into the fire for the first time more so than any preseason game, with vanilla approaches and limited playing time do. It's a time for cramps, offenses without proper timing and guys simply trying to get used to playing again.  

As such, upsets are a common factor. That isn't to suggest oddsmakers out of Las Vegas don't try to adjust and pin the lines accordingly. 

The savvy bettors, though, can use the first week as much more than a simple warmup. Here's a look at the full slate and some upsets to target.

NFL Week 1 Schedule, Odds

Kansas City at New England (-9)

Arizona (-1.5) at Detroit 

Atlanta (-7) at Chicago

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-3)

Jacksonville at Houston (-6)

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-9)

Oakland at Tennessee (-1.5)

Philadelphia (-1) at Washington 

Pittsburgh (-9) at Cleveland

Indianapolis at L.A. Rams (-3.5)

Carolina (-6) at San Francisco

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-3.5)

New Orleans at Minnesota (-3.5)

LA Chargers vs. Denver (-3.5) 

Bold denotes predicted winner against the spread. 

Oakland at Tennessee (-1.5)

In a showdown between Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas leans with the home side ever so slightly.

Roll with the Oakland Raiders. If this line moves, it will go more in the direction of the hosting Tennessee Titans. Not only are the Titans at home, they have Mariota coming off a year in which he threw for 3,426 yards and 26 touchdowns against nine interceptions and still has the talented duo of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry behind him. 

Those making the lines might also justify it by pointing to last year's contest between these two, where the Titans ran for 181 yards on an average of 6.2 yards per carry. 

But the Raiders won, 17-10.

Oakland didn't have defensive lineman Mario Edwards Jr. on the field or third-round rookie Eddie Vanderdoes in the trenches. The Raiders are not only improved there but now have Marshawn Lynch complementing a passing attacking that boasts Carr slinging it to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, not to mention a new special-teams ace like Cordarrelle Patterson winning the field-position battle. 

In a grind-it-out affair, bettors can expect the visiting Raiders to once again slip past the Titans, especially with defensive improvements forcing Mariota to take to the air in predictable fashion. 

Prediction: Raiders 24, Titans 17

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-3.5)

It should go without saying, but distractions weigh down the Dallas Cowboys as they head into the Week 1 encounter with the New York Giants. 

Bettors have an opening here. 

It's easy to forget the Giants swept the Cowboys last year in two defensive-minded affairs. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott gained national attention for turning around a historic franchise, but the rookie quarterback mustered just one touchdown and two interceptions over two games against the Giants. Elliott combined for 158 yards and a score on 44 attempts. 

The basis for a line favoring the Cowboys here seems to be locale and an expected leap for Prescott and Elliott. But it's not like the Giants sat on their hands all offseason while other teams improved. They added Brandon Marshall across from Odell Beckham Jr. and versatile tight end Evan Engram. 

Both sides have had this date circled, too, so it isn't like Prescott will surprise the Giants like he did to a handful of teams last year. 

"We've been thinking about them for a long time," Giants linebacker Jonathan Casillas said, according to ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan. "We've been working. Everything's been building for September 10. Whatever we've been doing come April, we've been building for September 10. All the preseason games were important, of course, but we're all building for September 10."

While both teams have improved this offseason, only one is led by a veteran like Eli Manning and has had a smooth offseason with drama that isn't bleeding over into the regular season. The consistency and veteran poise will show on the field to start the season. 

Prediction: Giants 30, Cowboys 27

New Orleans at Minnesota (-3.5)

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Saints playing on the road isn't the nice factor bettors could lean on in past years.

Drew Brees and the Saints won three games away from home last year and came up just short against the Giants, Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons on the road.  

All of those road losses came by six points or less. 

Last year isn't a clear sign as to how things will work out, of course, but the Saints have gone all-in around Brees' final few years. The offense added Adrian Peterson to pair with Mark Ingram, Wisconsin stalwart and rookie Ryan Ramczyk takes over at left tackle and rookie Marshon Lattimore joins Kenny Vaccaro in the defensive backfield.

For those who believe in revenge games, Peterson has quite the whopper on his hands with this one, even if he's being coy about how many looks he'll get. 

"I don't know [what to expect of the workload]," Peterson said, according to ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. "Once we start the season then I'll get a better feel. [If] you've got a guy in there that's being productive and really moving the chains, I'm sure you're gonna try to stick with that guy. And I'm OK with that. If it's AK [Alvin Kamara] and Mark [Ingram] and they're moving the chains and getting down there, hey let that guy roll, he's going."

Peterson's old team added rookie running back Dalvin Cook to the mix, but it is hard to think he'll balance out an offense to the point Sam Bradford can keep pace with Brees over the course of four quarters, let alone get more looks than veteran Latavius Murray. 

Not that the Minnesota Vikings are known for offense under the defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. But at home, even Zimmer will have a hard time scheming up ways to slow Brees and his array of weapons now buoyed by what could be one of the best committees at running back in the league. 

Prediction: Saints 28, Vikings 20 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds via OddsShark.