Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston: Which QB Has the Stuff to Join NFL's Elite?

Either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston is going to have a Derek Carr-like breakthrough this season. 

OK, maybe both will. Maybe neither will. But for purposes of quarterback prognostication, let's play by Highlander rules. You can choose just one of them to shape your prop-bet investments, lead your fantasy team or just talk about at work in August so you can look like a genius in December.

Here's a breakdown to determine which third-year quarterback makes the leap from promising prospect to MVP candidate. A deep dive into their supporting casts, franchise philosophies and 2017 schedules makes it clear that while both Mariota and Winston are poised to improve, only one has the elements in place to be anointed the Next Big Thing.

The Quarterbacks

At the risk of defying quarterback-analysis tradition by not crashing your browser with GIFs and taking a protractor to each passer's release angle to demonstrate my dazzling knowledge of scouting minutiae, let's keep things simple. Both Mariota and Winston are about where third-year quarterbacks need to be entering camp, from a holistic standpoint.

Football Outsiders ranked Mariota 13th in the NFL in its DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric and Winston 15th. ESPN's QBR ranked them 12th (Mariota) and 13th (Winston), separated by a mere 0.2 points. Mariota gets the edge as a rusher but broke his leg late in the 2016 season and was limited in OTAs, as reported by Jason Wolf of The Tennessean. Winston is more interception-prone but has been healthier throughout his brief career than Mariota and was asked to do far more for his offense. 

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

At the risk of armchair-quarterback psychoanalysis (the only thing worse than nitpicking scout-jargon GIFs), both quarterbacks have done enough in their first two seasons to meet the NFL thresholds for professionalism/work habits/leader sauce. Both showed improvement in their second seasons, led their teams to playoff near-misses last campaign and have tight haircuts, which should please Michael Vick, at least.

Each has each positioned himself to have a breakout third season. The question now becomes: Which team is better built to support its young quarterback?

Receiving corps

Both Winston and Mariota will enjoy significant upgrades to receiving corps that left something to be desired last year.

Winston targeted Mike Evans a league-high 175 times last year. While Evans delivered the goods (1,321 yards, 12 touchdowns), opponents schemed to take him away late in the season. Vincent Jackson looked ready for a front-office position even before suffering an October knee injury, leaving Winston without a true second option. Adam Humphries was OK as Cosplay Julian Edelman, and tight end Cameron Brate was steady before injuring his back in the season finale. But Winston got little from his reserve receivers or running backs.

Newcomer DeSean Jackson should help this year. He remains one of the league's most dangerous deep threats: According to Football Outsiders Almanac, Jackson caught 16 of 30 passes targeted to him 20-plus yards downfield last season for 579 yards, four touchdowns and five defensive pass-interference penalties that netted 169 yards. He should provide similar production while drawing safeties away from Evans and letting Humphries concentrate on a King of Slots role.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Further, rookie tight end O.J. Howard is a massive talent upgrade over Brate, though both will probably play a role in the passing game, and scouting combine marvel and third-round pick Chris Godwin gives defenses someone to worry about in four-receiver packages.

In sum, Jackson's speed, Evans' catch radius, Howard's physicality and the mix-and-match possibilities elsewhere should create mismatches galore.

Mariota's receiving corps last year also was limited, consisting of holdovers Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker, castoff veteran third receivers from other teams (Rishard Matthews, Harry Douglas) and late-draft small-school rookies (Tajae Sharpe). Walker showed that is getting better as he ages, and Matthews was more effective than advertised. But everyone else played as expected, leaving Mariota without a true go-to receiver.

Tennessee tried to address the issue in the offseason. Fifth overall pick Corey Davis was a mid-major touchdown machine at Western Michigan. He'll be groomed as the top possession receiver and red-zone threat, while third-round pick Taywan Taylor, another mid-major draft crush, will likely be the shifty slot playmaker. The Titans used two-tight end sets a league-leading 43 percent of the time, according to Football Outsiders Almanac, so toolsy Florida International product Jonnu Smith may also play a significant role.

Titans GM Jon Robinson clearly loves his small-school receivers, but asking three of them to ramp up and become immediate role players may be a tall order early in the season (especially with Davis coming off ankle surgery). So the edge here goes to Winston, whose goody bag is full of established players and SEC standouts.

Running game and protection

Mariota is supported by DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, the best running back 1-2 punch in the NFL, as well as one of the league's best young offensive lines. Tennessee's "exotic smashmouth" system has kept both his attempt totals and turnover rates low early in his career; it's a trade-off that may hurt Mariota's fantasy value but benefits his long-range growth.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Winston's situation is more complicated. Doug Martin is suspended until Week 4 for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. And that comes after he missed half the 2016 season with a hamstring injury before returning to average 2.9 yards per carry in the second half of the year.

The Buccaneers organization couldn't stop gushing about Martin during OTAs, laying it on suspiciously thick at times. While Martin may be healthier and more dialed in than he was last year, no amount of sunshine-blowing will make him available in September. Backup Charles Sims is returning from knee and back injuries that shelved him last year, while 2017 fifth-round pick Jeremy McNichols is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. The Bucs were reduced to plucking players from other teams' practice squads and giving them carries late last year. They run the risk of having to do the same this season.

Tampa Bay's offensive line was poor by any measure last season. In run blocking, the Bucs averaged 3.6 yards per carry and posted awful short-yardage conversion rates. In pass protection, they ranked 30th in pressure rate, according to Football Outsiders. In penalties, three linemen drew 10-plus flags. And in the eyeball test, Pro Football Focus ranked them 30th. The plan in Tampa is to improve from within, with guard Ali Marpet possibly moving to center, former Seahawks guard J.R. Sweezy returning from a back injury to claim a starting job and left tackle Donovan Smith improving from terrible to competent in his third season.

It's never a good sign when your offensive line improvement plan involves an injured former Seahawks guard. That gives Mariota a huge advantage when it comes to protection and rushing support.

Schedule and opponents

Normally, the AFC South is the ideal place to take off the baby bumpers for a young quarterback. But the division looks less like the Sun Belt Conference this year than in previous years, and Tennessee faces a pretty tough schedule, particularly at the start of the season.

The Titans open against the Raiders, catch a relative break at Jacksonville (though the Jaguars pass defense looks pretty good this year), then host the Seahawks before traveling to Houston and Miami. Things cool down a little bit after that, but Mariota could face a rocky start that leaves the team below .500 entering the middle of the season.

Winston faces his own slate of challenging early defenses: the Dolphins at Miami and the Vikings, Giants, Patriots and Cardinals in the first six weeks. Plus, the NFC South is a tougher division than the AFC South. The potential for high-scoring duels against Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Cam Newton remains high, though all three divisional foes look better on defense this year than last.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Let's call this a push, with the major takeaway that tough early-season slates may lead to slow starts and "What's wrong with Mariota/Winston?" headlines in early October.

Coach, organization, intangibles

Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter and general manager Jason Licht made their share of mistakes last year, from Licht trading up to draft kicker Roberto Aguayo to Koetter getting a little too clever before halftime against the Cardinals and turning a 10-0 deficit into a 24-0 chasm.

This offseason brought its own set of questions, starting with the lack of investment on the offensive line and at running back. Koetter told ESPN's Jenna Laine during OTAs that he wants the Bucs to be a "badass football team," sounding more like a junior high guidance counselor trying to be edgy than an NFL coach with a coherent vision. A visit from the HBO Hard Knocks television crew does not pass the "What Would Bill Belichick Do?" test for franchise improvement.

In Tennessee, Mike Mularkey's "exotic smashmouth" offense gives the Titans direction and personality, and trading down in the 2015 draft brought the Titans an influx of top prospects over the last two seasons. The Titans may not have championship-caliber talent yet, but all of the franchise's oars are paddling in the same direction.

Last year's Titans melted every time they flew to close to actual success, losing to the Colts and Jaguars late in the year as if it were their duty to maintain the balance of AFC South mediocrity. They are playoff "sleeper" darlings because it is easy to project them taking the next step as the whole roster improves and matures.

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

The Titans look so much like last year's Raiders that it's easy to give Mariota the nod here.

Summary

Winston now has one of the most exciting, multidimensional receiving corps in the NFL, a backfield full of injuries and questions and an offensive line that's mediocre at best. He plays in a division full of great quarterbacks and opponents that always seem one year away from building outstanding defenses.

Mariota now has an upgraded (though inexperienced) receiving corps to pair with a great backfield and offensive line. The Titans system is creative but conservative, and there are several reasons to expect a bumpy early season (tough foes, small-school rookie receivers adjusting) that may suppress both Mariota's stats and the Titans' team-on-the-rise aspirations.

The balanced Titans offense plays to Mariota's strengths as a rusher, rollout passer and ball distributor. Opening up the Buccaneers offense without improving the pass protection, however, may play to Winston's greatest weakness: heaving interceptions in the name of making things happen.

Winston appears poised for a long season of running for his life and throwing deep: 4,500 yards and 30-plus touchdowns, perhaps, but with 20 interceptions and 40-plus sacks. Mariota may max out closer to last year's 3,426 yards and 26 touchdowns but with fewer sacks, fewer interceptions and greater efficiency (plus a few big runs).

Factor in the Titans' more coherent organizational direction, and Mariota is more likely than Winston to take that proverbial next step into the playoffs and "elite quarterback" conversation.

Though if I really had the choice, I would take Dak Prescott over either of 'em.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeTanier.